Infinite Diversity in Infinite Combinations

Military science has a concept called "Revolution in Military Affairs - (RMA)". It essentially means that every so often, there are such advancements (innovations) in technology, concepts of operations and/or organization that they revolutionize the conduct of war by leaps and bounds. For example, gunpowder ... tanks ... submarines ... nuclear weapons/missiles ... IT (C4I).  One can argue that there is a parallel concept in computing, specifically software development, that we can call "Revolution in Computing Affairs" (maybe this is a bad analogy but RMA just sounds "cool" -- though let's be clear that I am in no way endorsing warfare or war. I remain, however, a big fan of Sun Tzu , Clausewitz and some contemporary thinkers in military science).

Anyways, back to software -- the slide below is courtesy of David Garlan one of my grad professors. I think it nicely sums up the "great evolutionary eras" in software development. Notice that these revolutions in computing are taking place at a much quicker pace than RMA or any other field (Moore's law is to partially thank for this). The question is where will we be in 2010 or 2020? What's the next big thing in  software development? Garlan is a proponent of Self-managing Systems and Ubiquitous/Pervasive computing. But how much longer before Moore's law does not hold anymore and real diminishing returns set in? Would we have to wait for some revolutions in other fields such as nano-technology and quantum computing before software development delivers its next home-run?

Tags: Software Engineering, Innovation, Software Development, Revolution in Computing Affairs

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