Old Hickory's Weblog

In a post that gives a glimpse of some of the practical difficulties and tough policy choices that the Israeli incursion into Gaza and now military attacks on Lebanon present for the United States, former CIA Near East analyst Ray Close writes (U.S. Policy in Lebanon 07/13/06):

Close discusses two ways in which American interests "do not coincide with those of Israel" in the current situation:

[First:]It is very important to the United States that the independence and national sovereignty of a democratic Lebanon be preserved. T hat means absolutely nothing to the Government of Israel, despite what they may say to the contrary.  Israeli actions going back many years, demonstrated most graphically in the 1980’s, clearly prove that point.  Current Israeli actions in Lebanon are belligerently challenging the continued viability of the fragile coalition government that is struggling to achieve credibility and legitimacy at a critical period in Lebanon’s history.  Israeli actions are, even more importantly, threatening to revive the deep sectarian divisions and inter-communal tensions that led to fifteen years of tragic civil war from 1975-1980.  American national interests will suffer much more than Israel’s if chaos results.  Secondly, we Americans have other critical interests to worry about.  If we take a position supporting Israel’s demand that Hizballah must be totally defeated and disarmed (a futile objective in any case), and especially if Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, the revered spiritual leader of Hizballah, is physically harmed, the Shiite populations of Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East will be inflamed - greatly undermining American prospects of working cooperatively and constructively with the Shiite religious parties in Iraq that control the overwhelmingly majority of political power in that country.

Open confrontation of Hizballah by the United States, allied with Israel, will have a powerful impact on the Iranian people, as well. Argue, if you will, that Iran is a known supporter of Hizballah and Hamas, and thus of international terrorism.  That is a reality that none can deny. But let’s prioritize our national interests here.  It is the  people of Iraq and Iran on whom we depend not just for “regime change” in the short term, but for peace and stability (and resistance to terrorism) throughout the region in the decades ahead.  It is the people of those countries whose trust and respect we must win.  It is the trust and respect of those people that we have lost - to a significant extent because we are identified in their minds with the narrow interests of Israel.  Why is that so difficult for Americans to understand?  (my emphasis)

For more on the Bush administration's policy in the crisis - or lack thereof, see Dan Froomkin's Bush the Bystander Washington Post 07/13/06.

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