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As a Nats fan, it has been with great interest that I've watched them trade for Alfonso Soriano, then try to cast him away and now allegedly try to ink him to a long-term deal. My brother tears Washington GM Jim Bowden apart and Thomas Boswell is making his usual apologies for this, but Armchair GM's Dan Lewis is the one making the most sense.

His post The New Economics of the MLB Trade Market is a fascinating and well-stated look at how smart teams can take advantage of free agent compensation by acquiring players such as Soriano in their walk year, low balling them in arbitration and then collecting draft picks from whichever team the guy ends up signing with. Here, I'll let Lewis explain...

"In November, the GM should identify players entering their walk year who are likely to be Class "A" free agents. He should try and acquire these players, if the price is right... In calculating whether "the price is right," the GM should have an eye toward trading the player over the summer, absent, of course, a need to keep the player for a playoff run. Basically, the GM should use the player's "flip" value as a hedge against overpaying in November.

The old analysis would have the GM simply analyze whether the player, if added, would make the team better for the current season. But that analysis, as demonstrated above, is incomplete. The player does not lose value simply because the team fails to remain competitive. Rather, the player takes on a different value. He turns from on-field asset to trade-block commodity.

Because the incentive to acquire Class "A" free agents is high, the market for these players is increased. (That's why the Rangers could give up three MLB-ready players for two months of Carlos Lee and a good prospect; if they can't re-ink Lee, they'll get two draft picks!)"

So if the Nats don't re-sign Soriano, which I'm not convinced they're even trying to do, they basically spent $7 million on his services (his salary is $10 million vs. Brad Wilkerson's $3 million) in exchange for an astounding 40/40 season and two top-50 draft picks next year. Not bad for a GM who has taken as much flack as trader Jim Bowden has. And if you don't trust me on the plausibility of all this, follow the link above for the full piece. It's worth it for any true fan trying to stay in touch with an ever-changing market.

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