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Pujols the Magnificent
It seems that every time I've ever seen Albert Pujols hit, he laces a home run, double or game-winning single. Through 38 games this year, he has a ridiculous 19 HR and a 1.302 OPS. Through the first five and one quarter seasons of his career, he has 220 HR and a 1.049 OPS. All of which raised a bunch of questions at this morning's AOL Sports editorial meeting. Here they are, along with my answers...
Will he break Barry Bonds' single-season HR record of 73?
He's on pace for 83 right now but has never hit more than 46 in a season. Remarkably, Pujols has finished with between 590 and 592 at-bats every year, but his HR have oscillated between 37 and 46. So, no, he's not going to hit 74+. Mid-50s would be my guess.
How would fans respond if Pujols did break Bonds' record?
Most fans, myself included, consider Bonds' 73 and Mark McGwire's 70 and Sammy Sosa's 66 to be by products of phenomenal players using illicit substances, but if a guy like Pujols does it the perception suddenly changes. Maybe it was possible for Bonds, McGwire and Sosa to pass Roger Maris and Babe Ruth without performance enhancers. Pujols passing them may actually legitamize their success. Regardless, he'd probably face steroid allegations of his own and ultimately become revered like no hitter since Ruth.
Would fans actually be rooting against Pujols?
The single-season home run record used to be sacred. Ruth held it for 34 years and Maris 37. Then it got broken and re-broken so quickly that it's now been reduced to rubble. So whereas common sense dictates that, "Yeah, everyone likes Pujols more than Bonds," I'm not so sure they'd be cheering him on in this instance. All things considered, the whole nation would get behind Pujols in the hopes that he'd rightfully reclaim the record and hold onto it, at least until Cecil Fielder's kid gets traded to Colorado.
What if Pujols hits more than 61 but less than 73?
Then many fans, but not the so-called record books, would consider him the single-season HR king, just as many fans consider Maris the current king. However, backing up to the first question, Pujols probably won't get that far.
Does Pujols have a shot at Hank Aaron's all-time HR record?
His current total of 220 is a long way off 755. Pujols would have to hit 40 HR per season until he's 40 years old to get it done. Alex Rodriguez is in the same boat but has a 218 HR head start. Before projecting either guy ahead like that, however, we should all consider the career arc of Ken Griffey Jr.
Has anyone ever had a start to their career that can rival Pujols'?
Baseball-reference.com's Pujols comparison chart answers this for us: Ted Williams, Jimmie Foxx, Frank Robinson ,etc. all came close, but no. Jon Saraceno points out that Pujols is the fastest ever to 200 HR and 1,000 hits. Offensively speaking, no one has had a better start than Pujols the magnificent. It'll be fun to see where he goes from here.
Update: After writing this up I checked out the Cardinals' record since '01 (Pujols' rookie campaign), just to make sure we aren't talking about Todd Helton-esque offensive performance here with no positive impact on the win-loss column. Of course, we all know St. Louis has been one of baseball's finest franchises in recent years, but since Pujols came on board they've won at a 59% clip, which equals 96 wins per season. The five years previous, all under manager Tony LaRussa, they won at a 51% clip, or 83 wins per season. Now, I'm not actually saying Pujols is worth 13 wins per season, but still.
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Mr. Irrelevant, a couple thoughts about Albert Pujols.
According to Baseball Prospectus, Pujols has been worth 57 wins above replacement during his career. So theorizing he's worth almost 13 wins a year isn't that far off. He's been worth 12 wins twice, and 11 wins once during the past three years. So far this year he's already contributed almost 4 wins above replacement player to the Cardinals. Project that out this season, he'll be worth 11.9 wins.
BP's top three comparables for Pujols are Frank Robinson, Will Clark and Orlando Cepeda, but none of them have a similarity score above 40 - what does that mean? Pujols is an astonishingly unique player in the context of history.
The weird thing about Pujols, and I noted this in a recent column, is that he never strikes out. He's got only 10 Ks this year. Compare that with other power hitters ... Dunn has 47, Sexson 45, Soriano 36, Thome, Delgado, Howard 35 and the list goes on. Most of the great power hitters in baseball are in the top 40 in strikeouts, Pujols is an exception.
(This may not be a good thing, as Pujols has been particularly susceptible to the GIDP, GDP over 20 times in a season three times in his five year career. But the relative merits of Ks vs. other outs is a topic for another day.)
As for the career HR thing, I took a look at the 2006 Bill James Handbook, he gives percentage chances for certain players reaching homer and hit milestones. Before the season he gave A-Rod a 37 percent chance of passing Hank Aaron - better than Bonds at 28 percent, Pujols has a 16 percent chance of passing Aaron. -
Is there a new undetectable steroid out or something?
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I don't know about you, but the only question to come to my mind is 'Is he juicing?'.
Not fair, I know, but Barry Bonds by keeping quiet isn't helping those that may (or may not) be cheating. And I think ANYONE from this point on who comes close to (or projected to come close to) any slugging record out there will be scrutinized at some level of whether he's cheating or not, and that will be part of the deal now when he runs around more bases. I almost kinda feel for Pujols if he is honestly that good of a slugger.
Btw Jamie, good job on Cold Pizza the other day, you were awesome!
5/17/06 10:45 AM