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8:06:00 AM EDT
Hearing a Jens Lekman mp3 from You Ain't No Picasso
Blog Bet: Would You Take the 1-Seeds vs. the Field?
As we were leaving last night's Blog Show rehearsal Bog Man Dan Steinberg was handed a piece of paper with chicken scratch all over it for the Washington Post's Celeb Bracket Challenge, the poor penmanship belonging to none other than beloved Redskins savior quarterback JC Jason Campbell. His Final Four? All 1-seeds. His Elite Eight? All 1s and 2s (for real, take a look). Now, it's common knowledge that anyone who's got a pair or isn't named Dick Vitale just doesn't do that, but, since I'm a Skins fan with blinders on, I came to the young man's defense:
Irrelevant: "It's really not that bad. There are only seven teams that I see making the Final Four anyway: Florida, Kansas, UNC, Ohio State, UCLA, Georgetown and Texas A&M."
Bog: "I'll give you the four #1s against the field for the championship."
Irrelevant: "You're on!"
Bog: "It's a bet."
And then we shook hands emphatically while grinning like Lloyd and Harry in Dumb & Dumber before realizing we had to figure out what the stakes would be. Perhaps an on-camera African Anteater Ritual?
No, that's been done. So here's the deal ... If a 1-seed wins, I get to make a post on D.C. Sports Bog. If any team seeded 2 through 16 wins, Dan gets a post here. Meaning, if this pans out for me, I get to a fulfill a lifelong dream of being "published" in the Post, and if it pans out for Steinz, well, he just has to do that much more work. I don't know much about gambling, but I believe this is what's known as a sucker bet.
Dan wrote about this last night, and I'm studying up over coffee this morning (bet first, research later): over the past 10 years, five 1-seeds (UNC in '05, Maryland in '02, Duke in '01, Michigan State in '00 and UConn in '99) have won it, while five non-1s (Florida in '06, UConn in '04, 'Cuse in '03, Kentucky in '02 and Arizona in '97) have cut down the nets. And a highly intelligent KenPom reader says there's a 60% chance a 1-seed wins this year's Dance. So I got that going for me, which is nice.
With the Tournament about to tip, which way would you go on our gutless wager?
Update: Heading into the Sweet 16, KenPom upgrades the chances of me winning to 71.5%. Nice!
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MDG, you have a scene-stealing turn in the President's Race piece on Washington Post Live next week. I saw it with my own eyes!
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I'm going with the #1's.
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The field. Various teams that end in 'Tech' are going to roll.
3/15/07 9:24 PM