Dawn Crawford vs Dirty County Politicians and  Officials

Inland Democrats are lining up to take a shot at a pair of Republican-held congressional districts.

Three Democrats are seeking their party's nomination for the seat held by Rep. Mary Bono Mack, and four are vying for the nomination in Rep. Jerry Lewis' district.

Nationally, Democrats are hoping to trounce the GOP in November by capitalizing on excitement from the presidential race and recent upsets of Republicans in Mississippi, Louisiana and Illinois special elections. 

 

But the Bono Mack and Lewis seats won't be easily wrested away from Republican control, experts said. The two districts both went for President Bush in 2004, and by larger margins than they had in 2000. Both Bono Mack, R-Palm Springs, and Lewis, R-Redlands, won easily two years ago with more than 60 percent of the vote.

In Bono Mack's 45th District, which includes Murrieta, Hemet, Moreno Valley and most of Riverside County's desert communities, former California Assemblywoman Julie Bornstein, teacher Paul Clay and business owner Davis Hunsicker will square off in the June 3 Democratic primary.

The Democratic primary in Lewis' 41st district features attorney Tim Prince, educator Pat Meagher, professor Rita Ramirez-Dean and library assistant Beverly Bruins. That district includes Redlands, Highland, Yucaipa, Banning, Beaumont, San Jacinto and large portions of the San Bernardino Mountains and High Desert.

Although Bono Mack and Lewis are considered heavy favorites, their party is reeling from the three recent special election defeats, which came in traditionally conservative congressional districts. Bruce Cain, director of the University of California Washington Center, pointed to 2006, when Democrats initially targeted about a dozen Republican-held seats around the country. By the eve of the general election, they believed as many as 70 seats were in play.

Cain said the same phenomenon could be at work this year amid an unpopular Republican president, an unpopular war and a struggling economy.

"There's a storm surge that's building," he said. "It just depends how big a wave you're going to get."

'Not That Simple'

It won't be easy for Democrats to win the Lewis and Bono Mack races, said Nathan Gonzales, political editor for The Rothenberg Political Report, a biweekly nonpartisan newsletter based in Washington, D.C.

"It's not about being a Democrat in a good Democratic year, Gonzales said. "Candidates still need to run credible campaigns. They still need to raise alot of money."

Generally, House candidates need at least $1 million to wage a serious campaign, although the figure varies widely from media market to media market, Gonzales said.

Neither the Lewis race nor the Bono Mack race is on The Rothenberg Political Report's list of races to watch, he said.

"Both races are long shots," he said. "Democrats have had a lot of success. I think they're going to have more success in this election, but they're not going to win every race."

Lewis' legal troubles, such as an ongoing federal investigation into his ties to a now-defunct Washington, D.C., lobbying firm, have caught the attention of Democrats, Gonzales said.

"I think that those circumstances keep Lewis' name on the national Democratic radar and that's why Democrats in Washington will bring up his name from time to time because they feel like he's uniquely challenged," he said. "We've been hearing those sorts of things for a while, but they haven't been able to mount a serious campaign against him."

And Democrats aren't even talking about the Bono Mack race as one they have a chance at, he said.

"It would take more than a Democratic wave (of victories in November) for her to lose. I think it would take a specific scandal," Gonzales said. "I think the folks of the district know her and know who she is."

Money Matters

Prince, a San Bernardino attorney and well-known Democratic activist, leads the pack in fundraising in the 41st district's Democratic primary with $100,304 in his account May 14, when he filed his last campaign-finance report. He's in debt to a tune of $102,744, with $100,000 in loans owed to himself.

Meagher, the principal of Fontana Adult School and a Forest Falls resident, had $4,859 in his account on April 15. He has not filed a campaign-finance report since.

Ramirez-Dean, a college professor from Twentynine Palms, ran unsuccessfully for the 65th Assembly District in 2006. Bruins, who lists herself as a library assistant from Redlands, also is running. Neither Ramirez-Dean nor Bruins has filed campaign-finance reports.

Lewis had $843,556 in his account as of May 14 and had no debt.

In the 45th, Bornstein has raised a total of $68,826, more than $40,000 of it between April 1 and mid-May. In addition, the former assemblywoman has lent her campaign $90,000. As of May 15, she still had $112,756 on hand.

Although she has less than a third of the $376,487 Bono Mack has on hand, Democrats don't appear ready to concede the seat, Cain said.

"To get a former elected official who can raise some serious money -- that tells you they're going to going to take a shot at it," he said.

Clay, a teacher and businessman from Murrieta, had raised $16,460 and had just over $2,000 on hand as of May 15.

Hunsicker, a business owner from Palm Desert, hasn't filed any campaign finance reports.

Bono Mack has one Republican challenger, retired teacher George Pearne, who has not filed any campaign finance reports.

Lewis will have two Republican opponents June 3, although neither one has filed any campaign-finance reports or waged a high-profile campaign.

Eric R. Stone, of Cedarpines Park, and Pamela Zander, of Oak Hills, will face Lewis in June.

Stone is listed on the ballot as a businessman/project manager, and Zander as a business person.

Gonzales said it's not unusual for candidates to challenge an incumbent in the primary, but they rarely are successful.

Reach Ben Goad at 202-661-8422 or bgoad@PE.com