The Lineup Card

As Barry Bonds closes in on Hank Aaron's actual home run record, it's worth considering what the top sluggers in baseball history would do if we put them all on an equal playing ground. Luckily for those of us in the sabermetric world we have a method for doing just that. Baseball Prospectus lists what are known as the Davenport Translations, developed by Clay Davenport.

What the translations do is take a player's statistics and place them into a completely neutral environment -- including an offensively neutral ballpark in an era with average offensive production and normalizing to a 162-game schedule. To give you a real-world example of what type of environment we're talking about, think of something similar to Kansas City's Kaufmann Stadium in the 1980s. Here's a look at the top six home run, if the best sluggers played in such conditions.

1. Babe Ruth, RF (1914-1935)
Actual Home Runs: 714
Davenport Translation: 1070
Adjustments: It's hard to know how to further adjust for Ruth. The Yankee Stadium he played in was cavernous in the power allies and in straightaway center field, but was shorter than 300 feet down both the left and right field lines. The short porch in right has inspired particular disdain, with some critics calling Yankee Stadium "the House Built for Ruth." Still, the dimensions probably gave Ruth some homers and took some away. What's more important is that Ruth was a pitcher for the first six years of his career only starting to get regular at-bats in his final two seasons with Boston. All in all, we can probably add a little bit to Ruth's translated homer totals.
Final Hypothetical Mark: 1120

2. Hank Aaron, OF (1954-1976)
Actual Home Runs: 755
Davenport Translation: 971
Adjustments: Adjusting for Aaron isn't particularly challenging, as he played most of his career in the modern era, and indeed played in two parks that were relatively neutral. County Stadium in Milwaukee was fairly shallow down the lines at 315 feet in left and right, but deep in the power allies. All in all, there's no work to be done that the DTs haven't already done. Aaron didn't miss any time during his career because of military service,or because his team needed another arm in the rotation.
Final Hypothetical Mark: 971

3. Ted Williams, LF (19139-1960)
Actual Home Runs: 521
Davenport Translation: 752
Adjustments: Adjusting for Fenway Park isn't particularly hard in this case. The bullpens in deep right field were infamously built expressly for the Splendid Splinter who was a dead pull hitter. While Fenway has never been a great home run ballpark, Williams had plenty of advantages afforded him. The real problem is Williams' military service. He missed part or all of five different seasons serving as a pilot in the Korean War and World War II, including missing prime seasons from age 24 to 26. The year before World War II, Williams' translated homer total was in the 60s, ditto for the two seasons after he returned. During the Korean War he probably missed out on about 70 to 80 homers. All in all, it's possible Williams missed out on close to 200 translated homers due to military service.
Final Hypothetical Mark: 952

4. Willie Mays, CF (1951-1973)
Actual Home Runs: 660
Davenport Translation: 856
Adjustments: Mays had the misfortune of playing in tough hitter's parks for almost his entire career. It was basically impossible to hit a home run anywhere in center at the Polo Grounds (505 to straightaway). Candlestick Park was also somewhat cavernous, but the high winds next to the ocean also supressed homers. In addition to the tough environs Mays played in, he too missed parts of two seasons due to military service, padding his translated total further.
Final Hypothetical Mark: 936

5. Barry Bonds, LF (1986-Present)
Actual Home Runs: 745 and counting
Davenport Translation: 947
Adjustments: Bonds, like Willie Mays, has played in some tough hitter's parks, no coincidence since both he and his godfather spent most of their careers with the Giants. Candlestick Park was tough enough, but AT&T Park is even more cavernous and plagued by similar gusts of wind off the ocean. Still, you have to take some homers off for Bonds because of the era he played in, with steroids, tightly wound baseballs and cookie-cutter ballparks.
Final Hypothetical Mark: 897 and counting

6. Josh Gibson, RF (1930-1946)
Actual Home Runs: Somewhere "around 800"
Davenport Translation: N/A
Adjustments: Negro league star Josh Gibson is the toughest to adjust for, for obvious reasons: Statistics weren't kept diligently in the negro leagues. We do know that probably three-fourths of Gibson's homers came in exhibition games, not against actual negro league opponents. We also know he had a tremendous power stroke, routinely hitting 500-foot shots, and allegedly blasting 69 home runs in 1934. In one exhibition game, Gibson supposedly also hit a 580-foot home run off the facade at Yankee Stadium. Researchers believe he had a HR/AB rate of 15.9, a rate in line with some of the top home run hitters in major league history. Still, Gibson's career was shorter than the others on this list and he didn't always face the best competition, so crediting him with 800 big flys is wildly optimistic.
Final Hypothetical Mark: Somewhere around 600

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• #2 Comment from accollins 
  7/1/07 10:20 AM | Permalink

  hypothetically speaking , you like every other white person is out of your ever-loving mind. ruth is not the homerun king anymore. he lost that when aaron passed him and also bonds passed him. ruth played when no other race was allowed to play. we know people of color is far superior in sports. no racism intended. so get over it. the collins translation says that 755 and 750 is more than 714.that's a fact, nothing hypothetical about that.
• #1 Comment from mbigrmachine14 
  6/30/07 11:46 AM | Permalink

  Mays was the best. Power speed great arm and most important a team player. He always knew what reaction a situatiation called for . Willie respected the game and brought class to the field every time he crossed the white lines