The Lineup Card

Anybody who's been watching the Red Sox knows there's not much to worry about right now with this team, but, for me at least, worries about an injury to all-world closer Jonathan Papelbon have started to creep in.

He certainly hasn't been quite the dominant pitcher he was last year (eight BB already this year after allowing just 13 in all of 2006), though expecting him to post a sub-1.00 ERA is expecting way too much from anyone. Anyway, Papelbon's velocity has dropped in a few outings, just a few mph, but it's noticeable in a pitcher so dependent on his overpowering fastball for success, and he's given up some hard-hit balls in a few outings, most recently Sunday against Texas. A scout over at Baseball Think Factory notices that Papelbon's arm slot has lowered this season compared to last:

What I did here was to trace Papelbon's arm path from release to a few frames after release. Where the arm finishes is a good indication of the path the arm has traveled. As we can clearly see here, his slot on the '07 pitch is lower. What does the lower slot have to do with injury concerns? 1) As pitchers, we are reminded daily of the virtues of keeping the arm "up." One of the clearest indications of a pitcher who is struggling with shoulder soreness/pain is a drop in his arm slot. From a personal standpoint, I know that (when I threw overhand) when my shoulder was hurting me, I would tend to lower my elbow in order to "protect the shoulder." While I'm not totally sure of the cause/effect, I DO know that since becoming a sidearmer/submariner, I have had significantly less issues with shoulder pain. Consider this analogy: Have you ever gone to the gym for a workout and REALLY worked on your shoulders? How do they feel the next day? Do you have trouble raising your arms and getting your elbows above your shoulder plane? Yeah, me too. Sort of the same idea here except that pitchers are dealing more with ligament pain instead of muscular soreness.

There's more visual evidence of Papelbon lowering his arm slot ... something known as cutting the glove:

See how in '06 (the one on the left), his arm is under the glove? I call that cutting under the glove. In '07, his arm is over the glove. That's cutting over the glove. Generally speaking, pitchers with flatter arm paths (lower arm slot) cut over the glove. The reverse is true for steeper arm paths. By the way, there are many, many exceptions to this, but it's just something I've noticed.

You'll have to go over to BBTF to view the visual evidence, but I highly recommend making the trip, it's worth it.

Of course, there's a few things that could be going on here. Papelbon hasn't gotten consistent work this month, mostly because the Red Sox haven't been winning a bunch of close games. Between May 6 and May 20, a two-week span, he only got into two games, so it's possible he's dealing with some rustiness, similar to the problems Mariano Rivera has dealt with this year with underuse. Hey, you don't pitch a lot, that's a recipe for your mechanics coming unhinged.

The other possibility is that Papelbon is hiding some sort of injury. As the scout mentions, a lowering arm slot (about nine degrees in his case) usually hints at a shoulder problem, and that's exactly what knocked Papelbon out at the end of last season. For another example, think of Pedro Martinez, who kept lowering and lowering his arm slot every season after the slight tear in his labrum until he finally had to get surgery last winter. There's probably no need to tell you this, but a shoulder injury is about the worst thing that can happen to a pitcher.

Of course, this article was written May 12, since then Papelbon has gotten regular use (four appearances since May 20 with seven Ks, two BB in four innings) and he hasn't allowed a run, so the numbers don't bear out an injury, at least not yet, and he could have fixed his arm slot. Still, this bears watching if you're a Red Sox fan or a fantasy player.

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