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The thermometer isn't the only thing heating up
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Thursday, July 24, 2008
8:48:00 PM EDT
It's July. Everybody's hot, humid, pissed off, and downright miserable. Including the drivers and teams who are on the bubble for the Chase for the Sprint Cup. With seven races remaining until the cutoff, a lot is still to be decided. We can reasonably assume the top five drivers are going to make the Chase, barring hostile takeover of their teams by Iranian militants (they aren't mathematically in by any stretch of the imagination, although I can see Wild Thing locking up his spot at Michigan or even Watkins Glen in two weeks). As for the other seven spots, it's a mess. Everybody from 6th to 16th in points has a shot right now, setting us up for what should be the most exciting Race to the Chase in this the fifth year of the playoff format. And Martin Truex, down in 17th, would be in the thick of things if his team didn't get caught red-handed by NASCAR at Daytona. I still wouldn't necessarily count him, or 18th place and notorious July/August star Kurt Busch, out of the picture just yet. The final off weekend is in the rear-view mirror, setting up a 7-week run to the Chase and unimpeded 17-week run to the championship. Now's a good time to look at where everybody in Chase contention stands, and who I think will make it and who will be looking at a painfully long fall and offseason. Since so many teams are in the picture, a lot can still change. Hopefully this continues to evolve into an exciting race just to make the playoffs, and doesn't fizzle out by the time Richmond rolls around. While this weekend's Allstate 400 is a crown jewel event, a lot of these guys are going to have to choose between going all out for a season or career-defining win or settling for a solid run to hopefully set up a run at the championship in the long-term. First up, the current point standings.
1. 18 Kyle Busch +625 (points ahead of 13th)
2. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. +363
3. 31 Jeff Burton +334
4. 99 Carl Edwards +253
5. 48 Jimmie Johnson +238
6. 24 Jeff Gordon +128
7. 16 Greg Biffle +62
8. 17 Matt Kenseth +61
9. 29 Kevin Harvick +52
10. 20 Tony Stewart +49
11. 9 Kasey Kahne +39
12. 11 Denny Hamlin +27
----
13. 07 Clint Bowyer -27 (points behind 12th)
14. 83 Brian Vickers -95
15. 6 David Ragan -98
16. 12 Ryan Newman -189
17. 1 Martin Truex Jr. -233
18. 2 Kurt Busch -245
-----------------------
PRESUMABLY SAFE: Kyle Busch, Earnhardt Jr., Burton, Edwards, Johnson
JEFF GORDON (6th)
2007 results at upcoming races (Indy, Pocono, The Glen, Michigan, Bristol, California, Richmond): 3rd, 4th, 9th, 27th, 19th, 22nd, 4th
Last five races (Michigan, Infineon, New Hampshire, Daytona, Chicago): 18th, 3rd, 11th, 30th, 11th
Outlook: Gordon has several things in his favor: a fairly large cushion, good tracks coming up, and the fact that he is the most successful driver of this generation, especially in pressure situations. He will make it in easily, and may improve his positioning if one of the top five falters.
GREG BIFFLE (7th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 15th, 23rd, 10th, 19th, 10th, 17th, 39th
Last five races: 20th, 11th, 21st, 43rd, 4th
Outlook: The 16 team and Biffle are certainly talented enough to make the field, and you have to consider them a favorite at the two 2-milers coming up on the schedule. But can this team shake the bad luck that seems to plague them? The margin for error is small right now, but I like this team to sneak in.
MATT KENSETH (8th )
2007 results at upcoming races: 10th, 14th, 12th, 4th, 39th, 7th, 14th
Last five races: 3rd, 8th, 18th, 3rd, 7th
Outlook: Mr. Consistency probably wouldn't be in this position, but like 2005, a horrible start to the season leaves him fighting for his Chase life. Basically, every track except the road courses and to an extent the restrictor plate tracks are good to Matt Kenseth. If he can get through Watkins Glen in one piece, making the Chase is a guarantee. Look for him to move up a couple spots in the standings as well.
KEVIN HARVICK (9th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 7th, 17th, 36th, 15th, 16th, 14th, 7th
Last five races: 12th, 30th, 14th, 12th, 3rd
Outlook: Harvick has won 3 of the 7 upcoming races during his career, and now would be a good time to repeat those accomplishments. This team has established themselves as a 10th-15th place team, and that is not going to be good enough to make the Chase. Harvick gets his act together and finds victorylane, leading this team to a Chase berth.
TONY STEWART (10th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 1st, 6th, 1st, 10th, 4th, 13th, 2nd
Last five races: 5th, 10th, 13th, 20th, 5th
Outlook: Once Stewart announces his new car # (14) and sponsors (reportedly Old Spice and Office Depot) tomorrow, that will leave him in the clear to focus on finishing his two-championship decade with JGR on a strong note. This is the time of the year where Tony begins to shine, and even with the circumstances, that will be no different in 2008. Stewart finally finds victory lane in the next couple of weeks and easily races his way into the 10-race playoff.
KASEY KAHNE (11th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 40th, 27th, 26th, 31st, 2nd, 10th, 8th
Last five races: 2nd, 33rd, 30th, 7th, 15th
Outlook: Kahne's results in the seven races leading to the 2007 Chase are misleading seeing how the 9 team struggled last season. While we can expect KK to be strong at Indy, Pocono, the 2-milers, and short tracks, how he runs at the Glen could make or break his Chase hopes. However, this team and driver are too strong for that to take them out of contention for a championship.
DENNY HAMLIN (12th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 22nd, 3rd, 2nd, 5th, 43rd, 19th, 6th
Last five races: 14th, 27th, 8th, 26th, 40th
Outlook: After a good start to the season, Hamlin has hit a bump in the road or two in recent weeks. I'm sure he'd love to see a short track race right about now, and there are two leading up to the Chase. However, I think his lacking performance in recent weeks will continue, especially on the larger tracks, and the FedEx team finds themselves on the wrong side of the fence after his hometown race at Richmond.
CLINT BOWYER (13th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 13th, 8th, 16th, 17th, 3rd, 20th, 12th
Last five races: 26th, 4th, 22nd, 9th, 22nd
Outlook: Bowyer has been a model of inconsistency this season, and when trying to gain as many points as humanly possible, that is never a good thing. The Jack Daniel's team needs to have a repeat of the solid finish they had going into the Chase last year and then some if they want to make it in 2008. I see Clint and the 07 just missing out on the fun.
BRIAN VICKERS (14th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 21st, 29th, 41st, 8th, DNQ, 8th, 24th
Last five races: 4th, 14th,16th, 11th, 6th
Outlook: Team Red Bull A gets better with each passing week. On top of that, Vickers garnered 2 of his 5 top 10s in a trying 2007 campaign during this upcoming 7-race stretch. Vickers and crew chief Kevin Hamlin are really starting to gel, as witnessed by 7 straight top 20 finishes. The 83 keeps rolling over the next several weeks, and sees their fledgling operation as a surprise entrant in the Chase.
DAVID RAGAN (15th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 16th, 33rd, 32nd, 18th, 41st, 12th, 3rd
Last five races: 8th, 24th, 40th, 5th, 8th
Outlook: Ragan has been the pleasant surprise in the Sprint Cup garage this season, making huge gains in just his second year behind the wheel of the 6 car. While he is very much in this Race to the Chase, I am worried about Ragan's performances at Watkins Glen and Bristol. The other races should keep him in contention, but poor runs there could spell doom.
RYAN NEWMAN (16th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 42nd, 7th, 13th, 16th, 7th, 39th, 11th
Last five races: 42nd, 7th, 15th, 36th, 10th
Outlook: Yes, this is the same Ryan Newman who won the Daytona 500. With his departure from Penske certain and his likely destination Stewart-Haas, it will be interesting to see what this team does over the second half of the season. Newman has not been happy with his team as of late, and thanks to the slumping performance, it will take a minor miracle to make the Chase.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. (17th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 12th, 22nd, 6th, 2nd, 11th, 6th, 15th
Last five races: 17th, 16th, 4th, 17th, 9th
Outlook: Take out the 150 point penalty, and Truex is in the thick of the battle. While we have seen stranger things before, the 1 team faces a long uphill battle. They have to pass five teams and do it without their crew chief Bono Mannion as he serves his six-race suspension. Truex is likely racing for the attention of other car owners, although I did read a message board rumor that stated Truex had resigned at DEI for three more years (announcement pending?).
KURT BUSCH (18th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 11th, 1st, 11th, 1st, 6th, 9th, 9th
Last five races: 21st, 32nd, 1st, 4th, 28th
Outlook: The only reason the elder Busch brother is here is due to the fact this is about the time he got on a roll to make the Chase in 2007. Thatwas a mole hill compared to the mountainhe is going to have to climb this year. Making up 245 points and passing six drivers in the standings is next to impossible, but who knows, if Busch duplicates his 2007 run to the Chase and a couple people falter, he could be in the picture.
There you have it: I see a close, excruciating battle to lap 400 at Richmond with Hamlin falling out and Vickers climbing in the top 12. Obviously, this is shaping up to be an exciting Race to the Chase with so many teams so close together in the standings. A lot of the close battles are inside the top 12, leading many analysts to say "these are the 12 drivers who will make the Chase." Not so fast my friends. If one of those guys inside the top 12 falters with a bad run or two, and they almost surely will, Bowyer, Vickers, and Ragan have good enough teams to take advantage of the opportunity and make a run for their spot. And if Newman, Truex, or Kurt Busch happen to have a fire lit under their ass and get extremely hot, I'd keep the corner of my eye on them as well.
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8:48:00 PM EDT
The thermometer isn't the only thing heating up
It's July. Everybody's hot, humid, pissed off, and downright miserable. Including the drivers and teams who are on the bubble for the Chase for the Sprint Cup. With seven races remaining until the cutoff, a lot is still to be decided. We can reasonably assume the top five drivers are going to make the Chase, barring hostile takeover of their teams by Iranian militants (they aren't mathematically in by any stretch of the imagination, although I can see Wild Thing locking up his spot at Michigan or even Watkins Glen in two weeks). As for the other seven spots, it's a mess. Everybody from 6th to 16th in points has a shot right now, setting us up for what should be the most exciting Race to the Chase in this the fifth year of the playoff format. And Martin Truex, down in 17th, would be in the thick of things if his team didn't get caught red-handed by NASCAR at Daytona. I still wouldn't necessarily count him, or 18th place and notorious July/August star Kurt Busch, out of the picture just yet. The final off weekend is in the rear-view mirror, setting up a 7-week run to the Chase and unimpeded 17-week run to the championship. Now's a good time to look at where everybody in Chase contention stands, and who I think will make it and who will be looking at a painfully long fall and offseason. Since so many teams are in the picture, a lot can still change. Hopefully this continues to evolve into an exciting race just to make the playoffs, and doesn't fizzle out by the time Richmond rolls around. While this weekend's Allstate 400 is a crown jewel event, a lot of these guys are going to have to choose between going all out for a season or career-defining win or settling for a solid run to hopefully set up a run at the championship in the long-term. First up, the current point standings.
1. 18 Kyle Busch +625 (points ahead of 13th)
2. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. +363
3. 31 Jeff Burton +334
4. 99 Carl Edwards +253
5. 48 Jimmie Johnson +238
6. 24 Jeff Gordon +128
7. 16 Greg Biffle +62
8. 17 Matt Kenseth +61
9. 29 Kevin Harvick +52
10. 20 Tony Stewart +49
11. 9 Kasey Kahne +39
12. 11 Denny Hamlin +27
----
13. 07 Clint Bowyer -27 (points behind 12th)
14. 83 Brian Vickers -95
15. 6 David Ragan -98
16. 12 Ryan Newman -189
17. 1 Martin Truex Jr. -233
18. 2 Kurt Busch -245
-----------------------
PRESUMABLY SAFE: Kyle Busch, Earnhardt Jr., Burton, Edwards, Johnson
JEFF GORDON (6th)
2007 results at upcoming races (Indy, Pocono, The Glen, Michigan, Bristol, California, Richmond): 3rd, 4th, 9th, 27th, 19th, 22nd, 4th
Last five races (Michigan, Infineon, New Hampshire, Daytona, Chicago): 18th, 3rd, 11th, 30th, 11th
Outlook: Gordon has several things in his favor: a fairly large cushion, good tracks coming up, and the fact that he is the most successful driver of this generation, especially in pressure situations. He will make it in easily, and may improve his positioning if one of the top five falters.
GREG BIFFLE (7th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 15th, 23rd, 10th, 19th, 10th, 17th, 39th
Last five races: 20th, 11th, 21st, 43rd, 4th
Outlook: The 16 team and Biffle are certainly talented enough to make the field, and you have to consider them a favorite at the two 2-milers coming up on the schedule. But can this team shake the bad luck that seems to plague them? The margin for error is small right now, but I like this team to sneak in.
MATT KENSETH (8th )
2007 results at upcoming races: 10th, 14th, 12th, 4th, 39th, 7th, 14th
Last five races: 3rd, 8th, 18th, 3rd, 7th
Outlook: Mr. Consistency probably wouldn't be in this position, but like 2005, a horrible start to the season leaves him fighting for his Chase life. Basically, every track except the road courses and to an extent the restrictor plate tracks are good to Matt Kenseth. If he can get through Watkins Glen in one piece, making the Chase is a guarantee. Look for him to move up a couple spots in the standings as well.
KEVIN HARVICK (9th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 7th, 17th, 36th, 15th, 16th, 14th, 7th
Last five races: 12th, 30th, 14th, 12th, 3rd
Outlook: Harvick has won 3 of the 7 upcoming races during his career, and now would be a good time to repeat those accomplishments. This team has established themselves as a 10th-15th place team, and that is not going to be good enough to make the Chase. Harvick gets his act together and finds victorylane, leading this team to a Chase berth.
TONY STEWART (10th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 1st, 6th, 1st, 10th, 4th, 13th, 2nd
Last five races: 5th, 10th, 13th, 20th, 5th
Outlook: Once Stewart announces his new car # (14) and sponsors (reportedly Old Spice and Office Depot) tomorrow, that will leave him in the clear to focus on finishing his two-championship decade with JGR on a strong note. This is the time of the year where Tony begins to shine, and even with the circumstances, that will be no different in 2008. Stewart finally finds victory lane in the next couple of weeks and easily races his way into the 10-race playoff.
KASEY KAHNE (11th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 40th, 27th, 26th, 31st, 2nd, 10th, 8th
Last five races: 2nd, 33rd, 30th, 7th, 15th
Outlook: Kahne's results in the seven races leading to the 2007 Chase are misleading seeing how the 9 team struggled last season. While we can expect KK to be strong at Indy, Pocono, the 2-milers, and short tracks, how he runs at the Glen could make or break his Chase hopes. However, this team and driver are too strong for that to take them out of contention for a championship.
DENNY HAMLIN (12th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 22nd, 3rd, 2nd, 5th, 43rd, 19th, 6th
Last five races: 14th, 27th, 8th, 26th, 40th
Outlook: After a good start to the season, Hamlin has hit a bump in the road or two in recent weeks. I'm sure he'd love to see a short track race right about now, and there are two leading up to the Chase. However, I think his lacking performance in recent weeks will continue, especially on the larger tracks, and the FedEx team finds themselves on the wrong side of the fence after his hometown race at Richmond.
CLINT BOWYER (13th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 13th, 8th, 16th, 17th, 3rd, 20th, 12th
Last five races: 26th, 4th, 22nd, 9th, 22nd
Outlook: Bowyer has been a model of inconsistency this season, and when trying to gain as many points as humanly possible, that is never a good thing. The Jack Daniel's team needs to have a repeat of the solid finish they had going into the Chase last year and then some if they want to make it in 2008. I see Clint and the 07 just missing out on the fun.
BRIAN VICKERS (14th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 21st, 29th, 41st, 8th, DNQ, 8th, 24th
Last five races: 4th, 14th,16th, 11th, 6th
Outlook: Team Red Bull A gets better with each passing week. On top of that, Vickers garnered 2 of his 5 top 10s in a trying 2007 campaign during this upcoming 7-race stretch. Vickers and crew chief Kevin Hamlin are really starting to gel, as witnessed by 7 straight top 20 finishes. The 83 keeps rolling over the next several weeks, and sees their fledgling operation as a surprise entrant in the Chase.
DAVID RAGAN (15th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 16th, 33rd, 32nd, 18th, 41st, 12th, 3rd
Last five races: 8th, 24th, 40th, 5th, 8th
Outlook: Ragan has been the pleasant surprise in the Sprint Cup garage this season, making huge gains in just his second year behind the wheel of the 6 car. While he is very much in this Race to the Chase, I am worried about Ragan's performances at Watkins Glen and Bristol. The other races should keep him in contention, but poor runs there could spell doom.
RYAN NEWMAN (16th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 42nd, 7th, 13th, 16th, 7th, 39th, 11th
Last five races: 42nd, 7th, 15th, 36th, 10th
Outlook: Yes, this is the same Ryan Newman who won the Daytona 500. With his departure from Penske certain and his likely destination Stewart-Haas, it will be interesting to see what this team does over the second half of the season. Newman has not been happy with his team as of late, and thanks to the slumping performance, it will take a minor miracle to make the Chase.
MARTIN TRUEX JR. (17th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 12th, 22nd, 6th, 2nd, 11th, 6th, 15th
Last five races: 17th, 16th, 4th, 17th, 9th
Outlook: Take out the 150 point penalty, and Truex is in the thick of the battle. While we have seen stranger things before, the 1 team faces a long uphill battle. They have to pass five teams and do it without their crew chief Bono Mannion as he serves his six-race suspension. Truex is likely racing for the attention of other car owners, although I did read a message board rumor that stated Truex had resigned at DEI for three more years (announcement pending?).
KURT BUSCH (18th)
2007 results at upcoming races: 11th, 1st, 11th, 1st, 6th, 9th, 9th
Last five races: 21st, 32nd, 1st, 4th, 28th
Outlook: The only reason the elder Busch brother is here is due to the fact this is about the time he got on a roll to make the Chase in 2007. Thatwas a mole hill compared to the mountainhe is going to have to climb this year. Making up 245 points and passing six drivers in the standings is next to impossible, but who knows, if Busch duplicates his 2007 run to the Chase and a couple people falter, he could be in the picture.
There you have it: I see a close, excruciating battle to lap 400 at Richmond with Hamlin falling out and Vickers climbing in the top 12. Obviously, this is shaping up to be an exciting Race to the Chase with so many teams so close together in the standings. A lot of the close battles are inside the top 12, leading many analysts to say "these are the 12 drivers who will make the Chase." Not so fast my friends. If one of those guys inside the top 12 falters with a bad run or two, and they almost surely will, Bowyer, Vickers, and Ragan have good enough teams to take advantage of the opportunity and make a run for their spot. And if Newman, Truex, or Kurt Busch happen to have a fire lit under their ass and get extremely hot, I'd keep the corner of my eye on them as well.
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