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10:22:00 AM EDT
Hurricane Season
Predictions for This Year, Lingering Impacts From 2005: This week the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicted there will be 13 to 16 named tropical storms this year, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes -- including four to six major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.
That means it could be a very active storm season, although not as bad as last year's record-breaking 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes. Hurricane season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30; the peak is usually August through October.
Warmer ocean water and favorable wind conditions, among other factors, will combine to produce storms in greater numbers and of higher intensity, according to the press release from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), to which the NHC belongs.
A NOAA study published May 1 in the Journal of Climate indicated that the region of the tropical Atlantic Ocean where many hurricanes originate has warmed by several tenths of a degree Celsius in the 20th century. The study also said that new climate models show that human activity, such as greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, may have contributed significantly to the ocean warming.
In recent years and especially after Katrina, there has been debate over whether global warming is causing more hurricanes or making them more intense -- or whether the number and intensity of hurricanes has gone up due to natural cycles. A conference on the topic last week in Washington reached the conclusion that there was a direct link between rising sea surface temperatures and the rise in the number and intensity of hurricanes. A recent University of Virginia study questions that link.
Government officials are urging people who live in areas often hit by hurricanes to be prepared. This is a reponsible thing to say and the NHC has preparedness tips on its Web site.
But the line about preparedness is also a bit ironic, considering how unprepared the Gulf states are after Katrina and Rita last year. The Army Corps of Engineers is rebuilding New Orleans levees to withstand only Category 3 hurricanes, according to Michael Grunwald's May 14 column, "A Flood of Bad Projects," in the Washington Post.
Also, the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) acting director acknowledges that some 100,000 families on the Gulf Coast are still living in government-supplied trailers. They'll have to evacuate the area if a tropical storm threatens, with winds of only 39 mph.Chad Heeter notes in his column on MotherJones.com, "The New Hurricane Season on the Mississippi Coast," that FEMA has basically "prepared" residents of the Missippi coast for only the best weather. Folks living in FEMA trailers are not allowed to move the trailers; in a big storm, they'll be encouraged to take refuge in a storm shelter -- which in one county is not close and only holds 250 people. Casinos and fast-food restaurants have been rebuilt on the Gulf Coast, but apparently no new storm shelters.
The important takeaways here are: There will be a lot of hurricanes this year, which, by the way, we are probably making worse through air pollution and global warming. If you live in a hurricane zone, you'd better prepare for the worst, because the government can't -- and as we saw last year, sometimes won't -- be able, willing or competent enough to help you. Above all, respect Mother Nature and don't take your chances in a hurricane.
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in re to comment of not sure how well to get prepared....is a good idea to just be prepared, if one comes your way and your not prepared chances are by that time the supplies you need will no longer be available to get prepared, many folks wait until the last minute and then is too late. I was on vacation during the onset of Ivan, rushed home to retrieve sucure my home and get supplies, but was too late, there was no supplies to be had, we were unprepared, was no more gas to buy to evacuate, no more timber to board up, no batteries , canned food or water, ect. I am telling you this from experience, please get just the basics if you are concerned about wasting money, but get something to be somewhat prepared. Is nothing worse then riding out a hurricane and knowning that you have no supplies at all. I hope you will take this as a concerned warning and rethink your position.
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im not sure how well we should get prepared i live in lewiston me
we have had hurricanes before but nothing major winds maybe
75 to 80 knots but things are changing winter could be also a hard one due to it hasnt had any major impact since the ice storm in 1998 if i remember correctally
8/15/06 1:28 AM
If you don't get hit by one (GREAT). SEND THOSE SUPPLIES TO THOSE WHO WERE NOT SO LUCKY. Then get ready for next year.
I live in Maui HI.