Down to Earth Blog

Hurricane Season Is Underway: Yes, hurricane season began last Friday, June 1. This year the National Weather Service predicts 13 to 17 tropical storms, with seven to 10 of them becoming hurricanes (three to five will be "major" 'canes of Category 3 or higher). (See "Coasts Brace for a Busy Hurricane Season" and the NOAA press release)

Also, the New York Times had a good story last week, "Will Warming Lead to a Rise in Hurricanes?" It turns out scientists disagree on how global warming affects hurricanes, although the World Meteorological Organization has "said it was likely that there would be some increase in hurricane wind speeds in a warmer world."

Scientists do agree that global warming is happening, however, and "There is no doubt that as the world warms, seas will rise, increasing the flood risk, simply because warmer water occupies more space. " So coastal flooding could be something to worry about more than a higher frequencey of hurricanes -- especially since many Americans live near a coast. (53 percent live within 50 miles of the coast)

The research into hurricanes and any connection to global warming continues. Residents of the Gulf Coast, East Coast, Caribbean and Central America still have to be wary of hurricanes. I've posted a few more hurricane links below. Post your thoughts about these storms, coastal populations and global warming.

- First-Ever 5,000-Year Record of Hurricanes Compiled

- Hurricane History Photo Gallery

- Hurricane Preparedness Guide

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• #5 Comment from bonggworld 
  7/8/07 10:09 AM | Permalink

  DUMMY,  OF COURSE THERE'S A LINK... IF YOU FRY THE AIR, NEW COOLER AIR WILL RUSH IN TO REPLACE THE RISING HEAT AND YOU'LL GET BLOWN AWAY...  YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH AND YOU'RE ALL LIVING IN YOUR SUVs STEEPED IN JET-AGE DENIAL...  YOU ALL SUCK!!!  I SHOULDN'T HAVE TO BREATHE IN YOUR FOUL STINK... IF YOU'RE GOING TO TRY TO KILL ME, THE LAW SAYS I HAVE THE RIGHT TO KILL YOU IN SELF DEFENCE...  MAYBE THAT'S WHAT THE WAR IS REALLY ABOUT ?  DID ANYONE BOTHER TO ASK ?   http://www.cdbaby.com/all/addambongg
• #4 Comment from downtoearthblogEntry Author 
  6/10/07 8:32 PM | Permalink

  I saw another hurricane study last week in the journal Nature, "Storm Seasons Back to Normal?" (http://www.nature.com/news/2007/070604/full/070604-7.html)  Scientists at the Geological Survey of Sweden found that the high number of hurricanes since 1995 may just be a return to "normal" conditions.
  
  They estimated the number of Atlantic hurricanes over the last 270 years by studying the density of corals. Apparently, corals grow more when there is a lot of rain. Years of high growth should then correspond to years of more storms -- and lower wind shear, according to the Swedish team.
  
  They found that periods of high hurricane frequency did not always match years of warmer climate conditions. The Nature writer notes, however, that the team may have missed some storms. But the research is interesting nonetheless.
  
  -dan
• #3 Comment from kiralmarch 
  6/7/07 6:37 PM | Permalink

  You're exactly right -- a link between global warming and hurricane frequency has not been established. But the link to hurricane intensity is pretty clear, not just for the future, but for the storms of 2005. And even if that's the only link, it's scary enough!!
  
  http://www.environmentaldefense.org/article.cfm?ContentID=6453
• #2 Comment from downtoearthblogEntry Author 
  6/6/07 5:51 PM | Permalink

  Thanks for the comment!  I like the link to all of the hurricane studies.
  
  I did a quick check of the summary of 'Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis' -- the first report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that came out in February of this year.  (see http://www.ipcc.ch/)
  
  They note that "there is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones." (Summary, p.8)
  
  But they also mention that "Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs (sea surface temperatures)." (Summary, p. 16)
  
  So, point taken!  Thanks for the clarification.
  
  -Dan
• #1 Comment from kiralmarch 
  6/6/07 3:41 PM | Permalink

  Hey, Dan. I have to respectfully disagree that scientists disagree about the relationship between global warming and hurricanes. Our chief scientist wrote a post last week about that NY Times article. He basically said that if you read all the studies,  -- even the ones that conclude there is no link -- the evidence is pretty clear.
  
  Here's his post about the NY Times article: http://environmentaldefenseblogs.org/climate411/2007/05/30/is-there-a-link-between-hurricanes-and-global-warming/
  
  And summaries of virtually every hurricane-global warming study from the past two years, with links to the full citations for anyone who wants to go right to the source: http://www.environmentaldefense.org/page.cfm?tagid=654
  
  I know journalists, in search of either fairness or controversy, try to quote both sides. But sometimes there aren't really two sides!!