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12:44:00 PM EDT
The NASA Temperature-Record
A Different AOL Blogger Gets It Wrong: I noticed today that fellow AOL blogger Dinesh D'Souza posted something about global warming, "Boo Hoo for the Global Warming Fairytale."
In it, he discusses how NASA recently revised its annual temperature records for the United States. He cited this article. Below is my response to his blog post.
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Mr. D'Souza misleads his readers by not stating several key facts from the article he linked to: NASA's Goddard Institute said the temperature revisions "were so insignificant as to have no impact on the overall global-warming trend." That article also quoted David Parker of Britain's Met Office, which monitors temperatures in Britain. He said, "The figures have slight significance for U.S. temperatures, but the U.S. only covers 2 percent of the world's surface, so there is very little significance globally."
The temperature revision was a mere 0.15 degrees Celsius, or 0.27 degrees Fahrenheit. NASA's Dr. James Hansen said in a memo about the revision that "The 1934 and 1998 temperatures are practically the same, the difference being much smaller than the uncertainty." (http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/distro_LightUpstairs_70810.pdf) To cite NASA's data: 1934 was 1.25 degrees Celsius above the mean for the last 125 years, while 1998 was 1.23 degrees C above. Virtually the same. So we could say that 1998 is tied for the distinction of being the hottest year in the U.S.
A little online digging reveals that Stephen McIntyre, the Canadian blogger who found the data discrepancy, told the Wall Street Journal (http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/global-warming-debate-overheats-with-bad-numbers-170/) that "The reaction in the right-wing blogosphere is overwrought," Mr. McIntyre said. "I certainly haven't said that this is some kind of magic bullet that disproves global warming."
Global warming has been proven. Some more facts for Mr. D'Souza: In February, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a report on the physical science basis of climate change and said that "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures." They said the total temperature increase from 1850 to 2005 has been 0.76 degrees C (1.3 degrees F). They also said that they have very high confidence -- are 90 percent sure -- that human activities since 1750 have caused this warming. The report was written by hundreds of climate scientists from around the world, citing published, peer-reviewed scientific papers. The report was then edited by representatives from 113 countries, including the United States. The IPCC has issued three reports this year; Mr. D'Souza should check them out at http://www.ipcc.ch/
So, global warming is happening and we are most likely causing it via greenhouse gas emissions. It is irresponsible to ignore these scientific findings and to mislead people about them. We can argue about what to do about global warming and what might happen 10, 100 or 1,000 years from now. But let's start with the basic facts.
Oh, and about the ozone thing Mr. D’Souza mentioned: Scientific observations over the last 20 years show that the ozone layer is recovering – thanks to the phaseout of ozone-depleting chemicals (like those formerly used in aerosol sprays). The ozone recovery is a global success story for both government and industry. President Reagan signed the U.S. on to the international ozone-protection treaty in 1987.
-- Dan Kulpinski, AOL Science and Reference Editor and author of the Down to Earth Blog
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You know, all this disagreement can go on forever;meanwhile we perish.
10/15/07 10:15 AM
http://www.businessandmedia.o
The debate continues, and global warming is by no means "proven". Therefore we should not base bublic policy on an unproven hypithesis, political shibboleth, and emotional rallying-cry for some vocal individuals.