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Division Playoff Weekend, A League vs. B League
Week: 5-2. Season: 232-128.
Looking over the eight teams remaining in the playoffs, one conclusion screams out at me: the weakest of the AFC teams would be a 7- to 10-point Super Bowl favorite over the strongest NFC team.
San Diego: LT.
Baltimore: Defense, defense, defense.
New England: They just win, baby.
Indianapolis: Less pressure - maybe this is Peyton's year.
Chicago: Just give us a damn quarterback.
Seattle: Who's showing up?
Philadelphia: Injuries will catch up.
New Orleans: Where's the playoff experience?
Let's chance a look at the banquet the NFL has laid out for us this weekend:
NEW ENGLAND AT SAN DIEGO (Sunday, 4:30 p.m., CBS): The best team on paper vs. the proven winners. How can you not love this matchup?
There is a healthy amount of respect for the Chargers in Patriot Nation, but we don't play them often enough to build the contempt and trash talk that's such a big part of games with the Jets, Colts or Steelers. Plus, we remember the 41-17 beatdown last September that ended the Pats' 20-game winning streak in Foxboro.
And there's also the weekend's best matchup: LaDanian Tomlinson vs, a great red zone defense. It's a matter of making San Diego work, ensuring that LT's 10-yard pickups don't become 20-yarders and forcing Philip Rivers to make some plays - no defense gets into a young quarterback's skull deeper than New England's.
On the other side of the ball, it's nice to see Tom Brady finally throw outside with some success. Jabar Gaffney caught 11 passes all season after being picked up off the street, then proceeded to bust his dad's old team for 100 yards' worth last Sunday. And a healthy dose of screens will neutralize Shawne Merriman - the Pats learned their lessons from getting shut out in Miami on a day Jason Taylor discovered what aftershave Brady uses.
Finally, how many times has Bill Belichick stolen a game against a better team? How many times has Marty Schottenheimer gone into a playoff game with the better team and still found a way to lose? 'Nuff said.
A month ago, I would've believed the ride crashed to a halt in San Diego. But somewhere, the Pats won my confidence back.
PATRIOTS 23, CHARGERS 20.
INDIANAPOLIS AT BALTIMORE (Saturday, 4:30 p.m., CBS): What a difference a James Sanders makes. Does the much-maligned Colts rushing defense hold Larry Johnson to 32 yards without him? But then again, Indy loaded up on LJ, and the Chiefs'imaginative (?!) play calling allowed the Colts to get away with it. The Colts put the ball in the end zone twice in the second half against a defense required to spend virtually all day on the field.
For an ex-offensive coordinator, Brian Billick sure coaches a team with the emphasis on defense. But this Ravens team has a better passing game than the '00 world champions. Jamal Lewis may be slightly past his prime, but Steve McNair brings a little more leadership to the field and knows how to take a team to the Super Bowl.
Indy played over its head defensively last week. Two touchdowns will win this week.
RAVENS 17, COLTS 13.
PHILADELPHIA AT NEW ORLEANS (Saturday, 8 p.m., Fox): For three quarters, I was set to gun the upset here and ride the Jeff Garcia love train into the NFC title game. But the Eagles couldn't hold a 10-point lead against the Giants in the fourth quarter, and Lito Shepherd's injury will not help the Eagles stop the offensive firepower the Saints have amassed - a cool Brees, a burning Bush and a Deuce up the sleeve.
Philly is still capable of stealing this game with the kind of smashmouth running game that's set Garcia up well. But the Superdome (even the pre-Katrina version) hasn't seen many playoff games, and NOLA will be jacked for this game beyond any other playoff city.
SAINTS 31, EAGLES 20.
SEATTLE AT CHICAGO (Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox): I want badly to call Chicago the biggest playoff top-seeded fraud in NFL history. Rex Grossman's not getting the job done. Brian Griese didn't even have to pull a second-half comeback win over Green Bay to get the playoff start, but was every inch as mediocre as Grossman. And the defense hasn't had the same swagger since Brady faked out Brian Urlacher on that third-down scramble at Foxboro in late November.
But we all know the Seahawks are only here because Tony Romo couldn't handle the damned snap. Sure, last Saturday night's Seattle-Dallas game was an entertaining scrap with the haymakers flying, but a good overhand right could've put either team's lights out.
BEARS 20, SEAHAWKS 10.
And finally. a few thoughts about the BCS title game:
* Not to make excuses for Ohio State's lackluster performance, but a 51-day layoff between the final regular season game and the national championship game is ridiculous. The Buckeyes looked flatter than week-old Bud - even Ted Ginn's gallop with the opening kickoff didn't fire them up. Last year, Texas and USC had lesser, and equal, layoffs, and were both on their games.
* If anybody wants to deify Urban Meyer, they'll be no complaint here. What an offensive makeover! He took a unit that was good enough to win, but not overpowering (like '02 Ohio State) and turned it into a juggernaut that rammed the ball down OSU's throat on the first three possessions, effectively ending the game early. He also demonstrated masterful use of two quarterbacks who bring much different gifts to the party all season - can't wait to see if Tim Tebow can chuck it downfield next season.
* I don't fault Jim Tressel for gambling on fourth-and-1 from his own29 in the second quarter. I do fault him for the play call. If you don't think you can get it on a quarterback sneak, punt. A slow-developing play will not work in that situation against a defense with the speed of Florida's.
* Yeah, Troy Smith looked like a Heisman winner: Gino Toretta, Jason White, Danny Wuerrfel, Andre Ware, Pat Sullivan, or any of those guys who flamed out quickly in the pros.
* As much as I love Boise State, you can have the 14-15 or so points against the Gators.
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