Coztanza's Commentary

12:37:34 PM EST
*Norv Turner made an unbelievably bizarre decision in sticking with Phillip Rivers throughout in the AFC Championship Game. The reason it was so strange is that he had no reservations in pulling LaDainian Tomlinson when it was evident that he was too hurt to make a positive contribution. Turner recognized his team's great depth at running back with Michael Turner and Darren Sproles. He also had a quarterback named Billy Volek waiting on the bench. Volek has a proven track record in the NFL beyond leading a fourth quarter comeback after coming off the bench cold. Three years ago, he started eight games for the Titans and completed 61.1% of his passes while posting an 87.1 quarterback rating. The Patriots also have significantly less film on him than they do on Rivers, who had played against New England twice in the past two years. If San Diego did not have a quality backup, it would have made sense to stick with an injured Rivers. Since they had Volek, they should have gone to him. It was obvious from Rivers' first pass that he was having trouble on his knee. He was not getting anything on his passes.  Every time New England sent a blitz, he had to hobble around and had to make a rushed throw with already sloppy mechanics. One of his interceptions came as a result of him failing to compensate for his gimpy knee and seriously underthrowing a ball. San Diego failed to come away with a touchdown in three redzone trips. The Pats rushed three and dropped everybody else back into coverage. This was because they knew that Rivers could not fit anything into a tight window with his receivers covered. Norv Turner did a lot to resurrect his reputation this season, but he failed to give his team the best chance to win the AFC Championship. Rivers should be commended for gutting out that game, but the coaching staff needed to intervene.

*Throughout the season, many pundits noted New England's lack of a running game as a potential weakness. It was really all part of Bill Belichick's master plan. A year ago, the Pats rode Lawrence Maroney too hard during the regular season, and he wore down. He was ineffective against the Colts and the Chargers in the Playoffs. This year Belichick knew that he had the talent to rely exclusively on the pass in the early going with good weather. He made sure to keep Maroney fresh almost to an extreme for bad New England weather in January. It sure paid dividends in the AFC Playoffs as Maroney had a pair of 100 yard games.

*In the NFC we saw bad Brett Favre rear his ugly head. Any observer could sense that something bad was about to occur. Green Bay could not run the ball, and the Giants were having great success moving it against the Packers defense. These conditions were tailor made for Favre to try and do too much. We saw this recklessness in recent years with overmatched Green Bay teams. Favre decides that he has to be the hero, and his fearless gunslinger mentality shines through. He tries to make huge plays regardless of the risk. This started in the second half, when he started throwing into double and triple teams.  It did not hurt the team then, but it ended Green Bay's season with the overtime in the interception. This was reminiscient of Jake Plummer two years ago. Plummer avoided the crippling mistakes throughout the year, only to revert to form in the Conference Championship Game.

*The bitterness of this loss transcends the game itself for the Packers. Normally when a team that young wins 13 games, it is a stepping stone year, and the window of opportunity will remain open for years to come. Green Bay is a unique situation. This might have been the first and last chance this group will have to go all the way. So much of the success was tied to Favre turning back the clock. He was an elite quarterback with terrific playmaking and decision-making abilities this season. If he retires, there is no indication that Aaron Rodgers can play at the same franchise quarterback level, Even if Favre does return, there is no proof that this was just an out of context year for a quarterback who appeared to be on the decline. The Packers may never again get a magical quarterbacking run like they got this year, and that was part of their run of success.

*If this was the end for Favre, there should be no shame in the way it ended. People remember the glory with which John Elway went out. That certainly would be storybook, but many of the best do not get to end their careers on such a high note. Steve Young, Troy Aikman, and Jim Kelly could not even leave the field for the last time under their own power. Dan Marino's last game was a humiliating 55 point loss in the Playoffs. Favre is in good company if he decides to hang it up.

*People are not giving Lawrence Tynes enough credit for the kick he made in overtime.  Tynes appeared destined to go down with Scott Norwood, Lin Elliot, and Doug Brien in Playoff kicking infamy after missing a pair of fourth quarter kicks that could have sent the Giants to the Super Bowl. Nailing any 47 yard kick is extremely difficult. Now add in bone-chilling temperatures that made the ball as hard as a rock and the pressure of an NFC Championship on the line. Tynes also had to deal with what had to be shattered confidence. People will focus on the two misses, but Tynes' successful kick was one of the greatest in NFL history. It belongs right up there with Adam Vinateri in the snow against Oakland.

*Football fans should feel cheated by these Playoffs. During the regular season, there were four superteams. They were New England, Indianapolis, Dallas, and Green Bay. This appeared to set up an epic Championship Weekend and Super Bowl. Now none of these four will meet in the Playoffs. Yes, the Giants and Patriots played a classic in their first meeting, but there has been something missing in the postseason. It would have been much more fitting for the Patriots to try and finish their historic run by vanquishing their bitter rival in the AFC Championship Game and then either taking down the NFC's best team, Dallas, for a second time or defeating a legend in Brett Favre. That scenario would have made for a season finish for the ages. The Playoffs are at their best when great teams meet. The Chargers and Giants are nice teams, but a team going up against history should have to go through the ultimate tests to prove themselves as worthy champions.


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7:05:38 PM EST
There is no doubt that the BCS is a ridiculous system. This year only further proves that reality. Its supporters claim that it makes the regular season significant. The season is the playoff, which makes every game matter they say. That must be why the two teams that will play in New Orleans on January 7 lost at home in November. It must be why a two loss LSU team will play for the title, which undefeated Hawaii will not. They say that games like Ohio State against Michigan will lose meaning if both teams have a guaranteed playoff spot. They ignore the intensity of games like North Carolina against Duke in college basketball. Others point to the tradition of the bowl system, which would be lost. Some argue that the bowls are good because thirty-two teams can end the postseason with a win, while a playoff would have only one team happy as if this was first grade tee ball and not major college football. Others argue a playoff would make the season too long, ignoring the fact that every other division of college football aside from 1-A has a playoff system and that the NCAA just sanctioned an additional game for Division 1-A teams. Still, others claim that the last team left out of a playoff would complain just as much as the third team in the BCS does. This assumes that Clemson would have as much of a gripe about not being able to play for the National Championship as undefeateds Auburn, Utah, and Boise State did in 2004. 

There really are no good arguments for the BCS. There is no way to prove that LSU is any better than USC, Oklahoma, or West Virginia. I have devised a system, which addresses most of the bogus concerns of BCS backers and allows teams to decide a National Champion on the field.

Every conference will have 12 teams spilt into 2 divisions. Every team must be part of a conference. 

Part of the inequality of the BCS is that some teams have to win a conference championship game, an extra chance for top teams to be upset, while others do not. Notre Dame can schedule whoever it wants for the entire season. This proposal brings more uniformity to the system. If getting Notre Dame into a conference requires letting it keep a separate television deal with NBC and not forcing it to split gained revenue with other conference schools, that is fine. The goal here is to come up with a good system. Economics are secondary. Notre Dame would enter the Big Ten, the most natural twelfth team for that conference in terms of academics, football prestige, and built in rivalries. Storied programs like Army and Navy would make natural fits for the Big East. Up and coming Central Florida would give the Big East a natural rival for South Florida and further cement the conference’s foothold in the fertile recruiting ground of Florida. Division 1-AA power UMass would help get the conference back into the Boston market it lost when Boston College defected to the Big East. It would also create a great rivalry game for the two schools. Secondary options include Marshall as a rival for West Virginia and returning Temple to the Big East. The Pac 10 could take a pair of solid rival Mountain West programs, BYU and Utah. Backup plans might be emerging programs like Boise State and Hawaii. The ACC, SEC, and Big XII could hold their status quo. Non BCS conferences could find 1-AA powers in the same geographic regions to fill their voids. The goal is to give all conferences twelve teams with as smallest amount of upheaval possible.

Reduce the number of regular season games to 10.

This helps eliminate any concern of a playoff making the season too long. It also clears out more room in December to conduct the playoff. 

Every team will have 5 conference games within its division and 5 nonconference games to schedule at its own discretion.

This serves a number of purposes. First of all, it gives a uniform schedule to everybody competing for a conference title. In the new superconferences, some teams avoid powerhouses in a given year, like this year’s Kansas team playing neither Oklahoma nor Texas, while other Big XII North members got both. That gave the Jayhawks an unfair edge in their fight for a conference title, which would not be a problem under this system. It also decreases the likelihood of rematches in conference title games, which are usually unfair to the winner of the first matchup since it is tough to beat a good team twice in one year. Teams now will also have ample opportunities to improve their strength of schedule through nonconference play. When Florida beat Michigan out for a spot in the BCS Championship Game last season, many Wolverines fans complained that their team had been unfairly punished because it had a weaker schedule from playing in a weaker conference. They complained that Michigan had no control over it. Now the Michigans of the world have ample opportunities to compensate through a vigorous nonconference schedule. Since one loss would not be the end of the world with a playoff, more bigtime programs would be willing to schedule series like Texas and Ohio State did a few years ago. Finally, the advent of big conferences has cost college football some of its best rivalries, like Penn State-Pitt and Miami-Florida. This system would give enough nonconference games to restore them. This might eliminate interdivisional rivalries within conferences like Tennessee-Alabama and Auburn-Georgia, but those teams could easily continue their rivalries by scheduling nonconference games against each other. 

The 11 conference championship games will be contested over Thanksgiving weekend. The winners advance automatically to the playoff.

Pro football currently dominates the Thanksgiving holiday, but conference title games would put the college game back into consciousness as it was when Nebraska and Oklahoma met. College football could own Thanksgiving night by kicking off Championship Weekend with the Big Ten Championship Game every year. The title games would continue through Friday and Saturday with a spot in the playoff on the line. Every champion from the Sun Belt to the SEC gets into the field. Hawaii might never win the National Championship, but they have passed every test in front of them this year. They at least deserve the chance to compete. Now they get that shot to prove they can play with the big boys.

A selection committee of experts decides the ten best teams in the country that failed to win their conference. They seed those teams 1 through 10. Those teams play the next weekend 1 vs. 10, 2 vs. 9, 3 vs. 8, 4 vs. 7, and 5 vs. 6 at the home field of the higher seed. Winners advance into the main playoff field.

This is the determination of the five at large spots for the sixteen team playoff. It puts an emphasis on winning the conference. Otherwise, teams have to play an extra week to make the field, while the champions get to rest. It also eliminates any advantage for highly ranked teams that did not play in a conference title game. For example, Kansas did not win the Big XII North. The Jayhawks essentially would have received a bye the week before the playoffs for not winning their division, while the Oklahoma team that won the conference would have to immediately bounce back after a game against the top ranked team in the country.

A selection committee of experts breaks the 16 remaining teams into two brackets and seeds them 1 through 8. The teams play three rounds at the home of the higher seeded team.The third round games take place on Christmas Day. 

The reason for the selection committee both in choosing the at large bids and in seeding the field is simple. The BCS has proven time and again that it cannot accurately rank the teams. The media and coaches do not have time to consider all factors. They have deadlines and other jobs to execute. They also have biases. A committee can sequester itself over a number of days and take the time to look at all factors when rating teams. It works in basketball. The reason that the higher seeded team gets to play at home is simple. It puts emphasis on the regular season. Take the Ohio State-Michigan game last season as an example. Both teams were undefeated. The winner got a spot in the BCS Championship Game. Some claimed that a game would lose all meaning if there was a playoff. While the intensity of college basketball rivalries where the same conditions apply refutes that claim, this system would ensure the game would have mattered regardless. Neither team would have been playing for its life, but they would have played for a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and the right to avoid the extra first round game for at larges. In addition, the game would have meant the difference between playing a third round game at home and traveling to Florida. The National Semifinals would take place on Christmas Day, which would give college football a new holiday.

Between Christmas and New Year’s Day, the minor bowls will take place, comprised of teams that missed the playoffs and eliminated teams. 

There is no reason for fans and players for 6-6 teams cannot travel to exotic locations to see their teams play exhibition games. Just because there is a playoff, the bowl system can be preserved.

On New Year’s Day, the five BCS games take place. In lieu of the BCS Championship Game, the Cotton Bowl would be part of the rotation. The championship game rotates every year. 

New Year’s Day used to be the holiest of days for college football fans. Since the National Semifinals take place on Christmas, the National Championship can be decided on the first day of the new year. There is no way to play two BCS games at the same place on the same day so a new fifth bowl is needed. The Cotton Bowl has more tradition than any second tier bowl. It used to be considered a premier event. It deserves to be back in the mix with the Rose, Sugar, Orange, and Fiesta. The two National Semifinal winners will play inthe finale at night. The other BCS slots can be determined among the playoff losers. The six BCS conference champions receive automatic BCS bowl invites. So does the top champion from a non BCS conference and the top three at large teams in the BCS standings. The Rose Bowl would pit the Big Ten and Pac 10 champions if possible. The Sugar Bowl would get the SEC winner. The Big XII champ would go to the Orange Bowl if it came from the old Big 8 or the Cotton Bowl if it came from the old SWC, the old traditional tie ins.

There would be no conference tie ins in minor bowls. The selection committee would rank all of the bowl eligible non BCS teams. All conference champions would be guaranteed a bowl. The top two teams would play in a bowl, as would three and four, five and six, etc. The established bowls, Citrus, Gator, Outback, Peach, Holiday,and Sun would alternate first, second, third, fourth, and fifth best non BCS games from year to year. The other bowls would alternate among sixth, seventh, eighth, etc. from year to year. This provides better matchups across the board in bowl season. It also eliminates the restriction conference tie ins place on where teams can travel. Now every team can go to any bowl game. 

This system answers all concerns of BCS apologists. It shortens the season for most teams. It maintains the bowl system. It makes the regular season matter as well. It also brings back numerous dormant rivalries through more flexible scheduling and brings the Cotton Bowl back to prominence. In the next post, I will provide the example of how this season would have played out under such an arrangement.

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5:55:09 PM EST
When last I wrote here, I was moving on to write for http://thesportsoverdose.com. It is with a great deal of pleasure that I announce this blog is back. There are no juicy stories. I still get along great with the cowriters of that site. There was no falling out. It was just that nobody could commit the time necessary to build that site into what we wanted. As a result, this will once again be the home for my musings on sports.


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12:59:40 PM EDT
This blog is now on hiatus as I have joined the writing staff at thesportsoverdose.com. Coztanza's Commentary may return one day as either a site discussing sports or other areas of life and the world. I would like to thank everybody who took the time to read this site over the past few years and hope you will continue to read my work at The Sports Overdose.


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9:16:43 PM EDT
Today marks this blog's third anniversary. The third year was kind of a lowlight. I really lost my focus writing here, and ridiculously infrequent updates became the norm. I will try and get back on track this year. I would like to thank anybody who has offered support and read this thing through the rough times. Year three was the worst. I hope to make year four the best.


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12:25:12 AM EDT

1. Oakland Athletics

Like their counterparts in the AL Central, many prognosticators think that the A’s have taken too much of a hit in the offseason to repeat as division champion. Oakland saw its best pitcher, Barry Zito, and best hitter, Frank Thomas, leave via free agency. However, the team should be able to replace the production that both offered and stay in the postseason mix.

Thomas posted MVP stats, but Oakland went a long way towards replacing him by signing Mike Piazza. Piazza proved last season in San Diego that he can still rake. He is still a middle of the order threat. His stats were skewed by the extreme pitchers’ park he called home. Serving as DH will only make him more productive as it will save him from the wear and tear of catching. He should come from off the radar like Thomas did last season to become Oakland’s best hitter. This is going to be his best season since 2002. While he will be extremely productive, asking Mike to do what Thomas did in 2006 would be a lot. However, Oakland is going to pick up production in other spots.

Eric Chavez had a horrid 2006 at the plate as he was hampered by nagging injuries. Given an offseason to heal, Chavez should be closer to the run producer he was in seasons past than to the offensive liability he was last year. Mark Ellis finished 2006 strongly, indicating his horrid start a season ago was a fluke. Nick Swisher, coming off a breakthrough 2006, has the tools to take his game to the next level this year and become an elite power threat. Bobby Crosby’s last two seasons have been plagued by injuries, but the ailments he has suffered are mostly freak things, not perennial. He should finally put together a healthy season and be something close to the player he was in 2004. Milton Bradley’s antics have hidden the offensive force he is, and Jason Kendall has a good eye at the plate at the top of the order. Losing Mark Kotsay will hurt the team defensively, but he has not been much of a hitter recently. Shannon Stewart will not be either, but Kotsay’s absence in the outfield will be lessened by Milton Bradley’s quality defense in center. Stewart’s presence means that the A’s will only suffer a major defensive downgrade at a corner spot.

Zito will be missed in the rotation, but Rich Harden should finally be healthy enough to pitch for an entire season. Harden has a bad past in terms of health, but like Crosby he has not suffered anything chronic. There is not Kerry Wood damage. Harden has just had some bad luck aside from an elbow ailment that came from bad mechanics he has since rectified. Rich Harden has the stuff to be better than Zito. With his talent, Harden could enter the air of Santana and Halladay in the American League. Behind him is Dan Haren, whose ceiling is not as high as Harden’s. He still has the stuff to become ace material. After a pair of runs through the American League, he should be primed for a breakout season. Joe Blanton is not as good as his 3.49 ERA in 2005 would indicate, but he also is not as bad as his 4.82 ERA in 2006. He should settle somewhere in between and act as an above average middle of the rotation guy. Esteban Loaiza is a solid backend starter. That leaves the fifth spot to Joe Kennedy. Kennedy has had an inconsistent career but always had the stuff to be a quality pitcher in the bigs. He appears primed to become Oakland’s latest unheralded scrap heap pickup. After a very effective season as a reliever, he should offer stability at the back of the rotation. Jason Windsor is a quality youngster who will be ready to step in and pitch well. He provides the A's with rotation depth. A bullpen anchored by Huston Street, Justin Duchschrer, Alan Embree, and Kiki Calero should help Oakland pull out a number of close games.

Billy Beane has again done a great job constructing the roster. His one problem is that his ego is often too big for his own good. Beane wants a manager that he can control. This prevents him from attaining baseball’s best. In game strategy is not the most important part of managing. Most decisions are defensible. A manager’s job is to run the clubhouse. He needs to find ways to motivate his team to play the best. He needs to make sure that things never get too high or low. He needs to make sure that his entire team is focused on the goal. He needs to have the respect of his players so that they will believe in themselves and their teammates. He needs to create the right atmosphere. When Oakland went to replace Ken Macha, they had that guy on their staff, longtime coach, Ron Washington. Beane went for Bob Geren instead and let Washington, a future star manager, go to a division rival. Beane wants to run the on field aspects of the team from the front office. He hired Geren to be a puppet. Beane was simply too worried about in game strategy. His teams have always struggled in critical spots. This is due at least in part to his inability to give his team a strong manager to rally the troops and keep them on task through the difficult times. The A’s are always going to have regular season success, but their general manager needs to get over his own ego trip and give his team a strong leader who might disagree with him on certain tactics, even if it means taking a backseat and letting the guy he hired to run the team do his job.

The A’s have consistently seen household names defect from their roster since the end of the 2001 season. Pundits always count them out the next year, but the team always responds. This year should be no different. A lot of guys underperformed for this team in 2006. Most should bounce back, more than making up for lost production. Oakland might not have great depth right now, but it is the most complete club in the AL West.

2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

This team needed to find an impact bat in the offseason to give Vladimir Guerrero some help. Names like Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and Miguel Tejada surfaced. Things became more desperate when the team’s second best hitter, Juan Rivera, broke his leg in winter ball, which will cost him most of the season and could force him to sit out all of 2007. The team’s response was uninspiring. Bill Stoneman brought in Shea Hillenbrand, a decent power threat but hardly an elite middle of the order threat. He also dished out $50 million to Gary Matthews Jr. That is $50 million to a guy who posted by far his best year at age 32 in a contract year. That is $50 to a guy who had much better splits in a home park that is one of baseball’s top havens for hitters. That is $50 million to a guy whose 17 homers and 77 RBI’s were not even that impressive in the first place. If it was not for Gil Meche, this would be the worst contract of the offseason by far. This was before steroid speculation came out. Matthews is not going to do much of anything to help this offense. He will help defensively, but even centerfield defense is not worth that kind of money.

Offense is going to be what holds Los Angeles back again. Vladimir Guerrero is one of the five best players in the game, but one player can only do so much. Losing Rivera will hurt production a lot. The Angels will at least be better than they were last season. Howie Kendrick, Mike Napoli, and Casey Kotchman all will become above average hitters. The problem is that none of the three is ready to become an elite run producer. Kendrick and Kotchman especially should become very productive, while Napoli will turn into a solid hitter for a catcher. Kendrick is a natural hitter but not a big time power threat/run producer. People are simply putting unrealistic expectations on him this year to carry the club. He needs another year under his belt. Kotchman is a guy on whom too many have given up. The Angels asked too much from him in years past before he was ready. Last season’s disaster was due primarily to a bad case of mono. He still has the sweet stroke that allowed him to progress through the minors at a rapid pace. He has developed enough to finally deliver on his potential. The problem is that the Angels need him to immediately put up numbers he will reach in his prime. Los Angeles needs its role players to hit like superstars, which is not a great bet to make. They also have too many marginal hitters like Chone Figgins and Orlando Cabrera. Both guys bring unique skills to the table, but that is not what the team needs. Garrett Anderson is nowhere near the impact hitter he once was either. This team is not going to score enough.

The shame of the situation is that the Angels have arguably the deepest pitching staff in baseball. John Lackey has emerged as a frontline starter. Ervin Santana is a quality starter and will get better with another season under his belt. The same is true of Jered Weaver. Kelvim Escobar is a steady veteran presence, and Joe Saunders has progressed through the minors and should be an adequate starter. He is only holding the fort until Bartolo Colon returns at midseason from rotator cuff surgery. The Angels are in great shape because their pitching is good enough to survive without the 2005 AL Cy Young winner, but he is capable of greatly improving the staff if he can recover from his ailment. A deep bullpen has only gotten better with the addition of Justin Speier. If the Angels have a lead through six innings, Speier, Scot Shields, and Francisco Rodriguez virtually guarantee a win. Hector Carrasco is a solid backend bullpen pitcher and Darrin Oliver reemerged in 2006 as possibly baseball’s best long reliever.

The Angels are going to be in the mix through the entire season, carried by pitching. They have been too gun shy in the past about making blockbuster trades. The farm system is stocked with young chips. Unless Bill Stoneman brings in an impact bat at the deadline, the offense will not be good enough once again. Vladimir Guerrero can only do so much. Los Angeles should finish behind Oakland once again.

3. Texas Rangers

Since the late 1990’s, people have known the Rangers as a team that can hit with anybody but cannot consistently get hitters out. The same will likely hold true in 2007 but not to the degree it once did. Texas’ starting rotation is not going to remind anybody of the 1990’s Braves (aside from the presence of  Kevin Millwood), but it should at least be adequate, although the fifth spot is full of abysmal options like Kameron Loe and Jamey Wright. Kevin Millwood and Vincente Padilla are solid middle of the rotation starters. Both men have had big years in the past and pitched like frontline guys. Brandon McCarthy and Robinson Tejada have top of the rotation potential but are not likely ready to deliver on it. This rotation is essentially a crapshoot. If two or more pitchers maximize their talent this season, the rotation will be well above average, and Texas will contend for the postseason. If the top four pitch only adequately, the Rangers will have a solid rotation but not one ready to compete with Harden-Haren-Blanton or Lackey-Weaver-Santana in the division. The latter probably will be the case.

The Rangers’ bullpen should be a strength. Akinori Otsuka and Wes Littlejohn form a more than adequate one-two punch. Scott Feldman, C.J. Wilson, Ron Mahay, and Joaquim Benoit are all decent relievers to round out the ‘pen. Eric Gagne is a major wild card. If he can maintain relative health through much of the year, this bullpen will become elite. Gagne-Otsuka-Littlejohn would be a daunting trio for any offense to face in late inning situations. The problem is that Gagne has thrown fifteen innings in the past two years. There is no reason to expect that he will stay healthy. Signing him was worth the risk due to his high ceiling, but the chances of him delivering seem slim.

Offensively the Rangers will be very good. Mark Teixeira is one of the top all-around hitters in baseball. Ian Kinsler and Michael Young will be more productive than any duo of middle infielders not named Jeter and Cano. Hank Blalock is geared to bounce back from a rough season. A regime change always benefits a few players. Blalock will be one of those guys. Buck Showalter lost faith in Blalock once he struggled. Showalter is a good manager, but he gives up on players too quickly. The recovery of Francisco Cordero after a trade to Milwaukee would attest to that. Blalock seemed to take Buck’s lack of faith to heart. He has discussed openly how much more comfortable he is with Ron Washington in charge. He also has the game’s best hitting coach, Rudy Jaramillo, to help rework his swing. Blalock is poised to have a big year. Frank Catalonotto and Kenny Lofton will help Texas to have a solid offense in supporting roles. There are some weak points in the lineup. Anybody who thinks that Sammy Sosa is going to be an impact hitter is welcome to buy the Brooklyn Bridge from me. A hot Spring Training against rusty pitchers and minor leaguers does not mean a whole lot. Sammy will hit his 600th career homer this year, but a year away from the game typically does not help guys with deteriorated skills. Brad Wilkerson and Gerald Laird are not going to be very productive. The fact that Jon Daniels does not get more ridiculed for dealing a forty-forty guy in Alfonso Soriano for Wilkerson is one of life’s great mysteries. That was one of the worst trades of all-time. Anybody who knew anything about baseball could see that at the time. This is not a statement in hindsight. At any rate, Texas will lose a lot of production from the departed Rod Barajas, Carlos Lee, and Gary Matthews Jr. not that any of those guys was worth bringing back relative to price. However, that only means that the Rangers will have a less effective offense. It will still be pretty good.

The Rangers made a great hire when they named Ron Washington manager. Washington is a rising star of the profession. He will do a great getting through to his players and running the clubhouse. He will get everything he can from this team because the players will buy into his message. His problem is that the Rangers probably do not have the horses to compete with the top teams in his division. The pitching staff is pedestrian. Even with their offense, it would be a surprise to see the Rangers in October. They at least now have some young pitchers with potential. Making the postseason should be less of a pipedream in a few years. However, it is doubtful that Texas will win the World Series the year after firing Buck Showalter like the Yankees and the Diamondbacks did.

4. Seattle Mariners

It is going to be another long summer in the Pacific Northwest. The Mariners did little to improve upon a team that has finished in the cellar for three straight seasons. Their rotation is not going to be very good. Felix Hernandez should be one of the few bright spots. He is ready to have a breakout season with a solid defense backing the groundball pitcher. He should finish in the top ten of Cy Young voting. The problem is that there is no depth behind him. Miguel Batista and Jarrod Washburn would be backend starters on most teams. Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez might not even be that in the American League. Weaver’s strong October led to him being drastically overpaid. The fact is that he was miserable last year, especially during the half season he spent with the Angels. Now he is back in the same division. After Hernandez, this rotation will be a major weakness.

The bullpen will be even worse. J.J. Putz is a terrific closer. However, the trade of Rafael Soriano cost the bullpen its only other reliable option. Chris Reitsma, Julio Mateo, and George Sherill make up a bullpen every bit as bad as the relief corps for the 1990’s Mariners teams that contended.

The lineup is even more pitiful. Raul Ibanez and Richie Sexson both provide power in the middle of the order, but there is nothing behind them. Both hitters also are aging and susceptible to decline. Giving up anything of value for Jose Vidro made no sense. Vidro is no longer productive as a hitter. Adrian Beltre continues to give the M’s as little bang for his massive contract as almost any player in baseball. Kenji Jojima is a good hitting catcher buthardly an impact bat. Jose Lopez and Jeremy Reed are both youngsters trying to develop into adequate offensive players. Jose Guillen is hardly an impact bat at this point. Yuniesky Betencourt is a very good defender but carries a weak bat. Ichiro might be the modern day Ty Cobb swinging the bat, but he can only do so much with such a weak supporting cast.

The Mariners are strong defensively. Betencourt and Beltre make up an excellent left side, and Seattle finally is making the most of Ichiro’s range by putting him in centerfield. However, it takes more than an ace, a closer, and good defense to make a good team. Seattle is below average on both offense and defense. This team needs a lot to go right to get into third place.

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12:39:10 AM EDT

1. Minnesota Twins

Conventional wisdom states that the Twins are in big trouble this season. They enter 2007 without Francisco Liriano, perhaps the second best pitcher in baseball, due to Tommy John surgery and Brad Radke, who pitched through a torn labrum at the end of last season, due to retirement. Many observers feel that Minnesota simply does not have the pitching to win a fifth Central title in six years. This is not the case. Johan Santana is the most dominating force in the American League. Putting him on the mound virtually guarantees the Twins a win every fifth day. All that they need to do in order to finish above .500 is win two of four games he does not pitch. Minnesota has the arms to do just that. Boof Bonser  pitched very well after being called up last season to replace Liriano. He should be able to build on that with his good control and ability to get a strikeout when he needs one. After a disastrous 2006, Carlos Silva worked all offseason to regain control of his sinker. His pitches were flat last season because he was not able to get under them. After a winter of recovery, Silva should be closer to the pitcher he was in 2004 and 2005 for the Twins. 

The key to the Twins’ season comes at the back of the rotation. It is not a question of whether guys will perform. It is instead how quickly will Terry Ryan pull the plug on a pair of ill-fated veterans and go with young talent. Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz will be terrible for the Twins. Ponson is a guy will all the natural ability in the world, but his terrible attitude and conditioning will assure he never comes close to reaching his potential. Ortiz posted an ERA in excess of 5.00 last season pitching in R.F.K. Stadium, an extreme pitchers’ park. Minnesota has quality young pitching waiting in the wings. Matt Garza struggled during a cup of coffee last season, but that was due to fatigue late in the season. He is ready to become a highly effective pitcher in the Majors. Scott Baker is another Twins minor leaguer who should make an impact before 2007 is over as are Kevin Slowley and J.D. Durbin. Minnesota cannot wait too long to pull the plug on what will be disastrous Ortiz and Ponson experiments. One can only guess that Terry Ryan will have learned from last season when he kicked mistake signings Tony Bautista and Juan Castro to the curb, and the team responded with younger players.

The Twins do not need their young pitchers to dominate. All that they need are to produce quality starts and to keep games close because Minnesota has one of the deepest bullpens in baseball. Joe Nathan, an elite closer, anchors the unit. Jesse Crain,  and Juan Rincon provide the Twins with terrific short relief. Matt Guillier has found a niche in long relief. Anthony Reyes is one of the top lefty specialists in baseball, and Pat Neschek pitched terrifically in his rookie campaign last season. This unit will not give away games. 

Entering last season, offense was Minnesota’s primary concern. After breakout years from Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, that does not seem to be much of a concern. Both guys are probably going to regress this season. .347 batting averages come for catchers once in a blue moon. However, both will be able to carry a productive offense as the killer M’s rank among the top offensive players from their respective positions. Morneau’s numbers probably will not drop drastically. He will just spread his production out through an entire season rather than condensing a monster year into a few months as he did in 2006. The potential was always there with these guys. Now that they have broken through, they are on their ways to long and productive careers. It often takes young players one season to gain the confidence necessary to do so. Both players now know they belong in the Majors as stars. That is half the battle. Mauer and Morneau are surrounded in the lineup by productive hitters in Torii Hunter, Luis Castillo, Michael Cuddyer, and Rondell White, who recovered from an awful start to finish with a flourish in 2006. Jeff Cirillo will serve as a lefty masher in a part time role. Jason Kubel should also pick up some of the offensive slack as the knee he wrecked back in 2004 has had another year to heal.

The Twins are run as well as any organization in baseball. Ron Gardenhire has the respect of his players and always seems to get the most from them as a result. Minnesota needs things to break right in terms of getting young pitchers into the rotation, getting those young pitchers to perform, and keeping Mauer and Morneau healthy since their lineup is full of supporting players and lacking big hitters. However, all of these are realistic. Santana gives Minnesota an advantage no other team can claim to have. I like the Twins to take the Central again. 

2. Cleveland Indians

Two factors kept the Indians from having a big season in 2006. The first was infield defense. The Tribe addressed that by upgrading the infield. Andy Marte takes over at third base for Aaron Boone, who never seemed to recover from the ACL he tore that cost him the 2004 season. Cleveland also picked up Josh Barfield to take Ronnie Belliard’s spot at second base. Jhonny Peralta should be much better at shortstop as well after addressing vision problems that plagued him last season, albeit he will still not become Gold Glove caliber. This new defensive look will aid a strong starting rotation that features C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Jake Westbrook, and Jeremy Sowers. All four young guns give the Tribe a chance to win every game that they pitch. The rotation is rounded out by wily veteran, Paul Byrd, a man who will bounce back nicely from a rough 2005.

Cleveland has a very deep lineup. Grady Sizemore is a terrific catalyst at the top of the lineup with a great eye, terrific speed, and good pop for a leadoff man. The anchor, Travis Hafner, needs no introduction. Hafner is a hitter who finally has enough name recognition to go with his gaudy stats that he could make a serious MVP push this season. Victor Martinez is below only Joe Mauer and Brian McCann in terms of production from the catching position. His problem is his abysmal rate of throwing out potential base stealers. When a catcher only nails 16 of 116, it cannot only be the pitchers. That is a major problem regardless of how good of a game he calls. Martinez ideally would move to either first base or DH, but both of those positions are filled. The Tribe still has no problem with his bat. Casey Blake is a nice middle of the order bat. The additions of Dave Dellucci and Trot Nixon to serve as lefty platoons opposite Jason Michaels and Ryan Garko were among the most underrated of the winter. Cleveland is going to have a pair of extremely productive platoons. Josh Barfield holds his own for a second baseman. There is some excellent depth as well with Shin-Soo Choo waiting in the minors, Kelly Shoppach as backup catcher, and half of the platoon on the bench. The only real weak link is Andy Marte, who still needs time to adjust to Major League hitting. He is not yet ready to become a productive hitter, but he will get on the job training. Cleveland only needs him to provide solid defense given how productive the rest of the lineup is. 

The reason that Cleveland will not win the division is the second issue the team had last season, its bullpen. Keith Foulke’s retirement did not really hurt the Indians. There was no sign he would ever be healthy again or productive even if healthy. The Indians added Aaron Fultz, Roberto Hernandez, and Joe Borowski over the offseason. All three are serviceable relievers. None of the three qualifies as elite. The fact that all three are considered upgrades says more about how awful this bullpen was a season ago (24 saves in 47 chances) than anything positive about the trio. Borowski will rack up saves and not blow giant leads, but he is very hittable. The same goes for the other two. Cleveland’s bullpen has gone from an F to a C-. That means that the Tribe will not give away as many games in late innings as a season ago. It also means that the team will lose enough of them to not win its division. By the end of the year, some combination of youngsters Tom Matsny Tony Sipp, Juan Lara, and Rafael Perez could be up as reinforcements, but the damage will have been done. Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera really need to step up, but neither seems ready to put it all together. This bullpen probably will cost Cleveland a spot in the postseason and Eric Wedge his job.

3. Detroit Tigers 

The Tigers shocked the baseball world last summer by jumping out to an early commanding lead in the American League Central that they held for most of the year. Then they suffered a tail spin at the end of the season and were relegated to the Wild Card on the season’s last day. Everybody left them for dead in the postseason, but Detroit recovered to upset the Yankees in the ALDS and sweep the A’s in the ALCS. Most prognosticators then chose them over the Cardinals in the World Series, where they were dismantled in five games. No team has been more befuddling to me. Every time I thought they would fall apart, they got hot. Every time I believed in them, they came apart at the seams.

The primary reason for Detroit’s success in 2006 was its starting pitching. The Tigers’ staff should still be good this season, but asking the pitchers to replicate what they did last season would seem to be a bit much. American League Rookie of the Year Justin Verlander was nothing short of dominant during his first Major League campaign. However, he fatigued down the stretch. Verlander increased his workload by over seventy innings in 2006. That takes a toll on a young arm not conditioned to take that kind of beating. The Tigers are probably going to pay the piper this season with Verlander as the White Sox did last year for all of the extra innings that their starters threw in 2005. Justin Verlander probably will not be as effective. Neither will Nate Robertson, who should make a solid backend starter but pitched over his head in 2006, posting a sub 4.00 ERA. Kenny Rogers is another Detroit starter set for a decline. He will be under careful watch this season, meaning that he will not be able to place items onto his hand which could help him become more deceptive. Posting numbers under his career averages for a third straight year will be a tall order for Kenny. All three of these guys posted close to career years last season. It is not likely to happen again. Jeremy Bonderman, however, should get even better after a breakout 2006. His power arm will likely make him this year’s ace. Mike Maroth should serve as a dependable starter to round out the rotation as he comes off an injury-plagued 2006. 

Detroit’s lineup might not be in the same class as the Yankees, but there is still some punch. The addition of Gary Sheffield adds a disciplined slugger to a lineup in need of one. Sheffield is happy in his new environment with a contract extension for the time being. It will be at least a year before his selfish antics start to poison clubhouse morale. He joins Magglio Ordonez as the big hitters in the middle of the order. Placido Polanco should rebound from a relatively disappointing 2006 at the plate to become a productive table setter, while Carlos Guillen is the most underrated shortstop in the game in terms of offensive production. Sean Casey is meanwhile a quality role player. Detroit’s lineup is far from bulletproof, though. Craig Monroe and Brandon Inge will add some power, but they will probably decline fromcareer years in 2006. Pudge Rodriguez is in steep decline and probably getting no better with the bat for all the leadership and defensive prowess he brings to the table. Curtis Granderson is not a good leadoff hitter at all. He has no discipline and does not properly utilize his speed to cause trouble on the basepaths.

The Tigers have an above average but not elite bullpen. The setup corps of Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya is terrific. A big problem will be replacing Jamie Walker. The Central has some big-time lefty hitters in Morneau, Hafner, and Thome. The Tigers need to hope that converted starter, Wilfredo Ledezma is up to the task or else they could find themselves on the wrong end of late game heroics. Todd Jones is an adequate closer, but he is eminently hittable in the Borowski mold. He gets the job done more than he does not, but nobody would ever feel safe betting their life on him getting through the ninth unscathed. Jose Mesa is a wild card for this bullpen. He can add some depth, but age and returns to American League and pennant races make that seem unlikely. 

The Tigers are an above average team. It would be surprising if they were not in contention. However, they have a lot working against them. They are going to need to have guys repeat monster years that seem out of context. They have something else working against them. This year they will be the hunted because they are the American League Champions. Last season the Tigers played well early. Then they struggled down the stretch once people believed in them as a contender. When most counted them out during the American League postseason, they thrived only to fail again in the World Series when they were favored. The point is that this team has not handled success or the pressure of being the favorite well. Will they be able to have the same kind of success when everybody will be up to play them? It will take a much greater level of focus and intensity to match last season’s output. The second year is always tougher to navigate, especially with an inexperienced team. They tend to forget all the work that went into making them successful the year before and assume that they will win by showing up. The Tigers could easily fall into this trap because there is still a lot of inexperience on the roster. Pudge Rodriguez and Sean Casey can only do so much in terms of leadership. Asking for things to fall so perfectly for a second straight year seems like too much.

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12:37:57 AM EDT
    4. Chicago White Sox

In both of the past two seasons, the team I have picked to finish fourth in the Central has won the American League pennant. This year that team is the Chicago White Sox. Chicago won the World Series in 2005 behind a dominant starting rotation. Last season the Pale Hose experienced many of the problems that I expect the Tigers to go through this season. Their pitchers were fatigued by pitching too many innings and an extra month of baseball and found themselves unable to duplicate career years. Chicago still has a solid top three in Mark Buherle, Jose Contreras, and Jon Garland. All three pitched over their respective heads in 2005. All came crashing back to Earth and had a disastrous first (Garland) or second (Contreras and Buherle) half in 2006. None was truly as good as their heights would suggest nor as bad as their lows would indicate. In 2007, all three should pitch like dependable starters but not like aces. The problem is that the Sox traded away their starting pitching depth in the offseason, sending Freddy Garcia to Philadelphia and Brandon McCarthy to Texas. With both pitchers, the White Sox have a terrific rotation from front to back. Without them, the last two spots are a major weakness. Javier Vazquez is a National League pitcher. He is the guy that Ken Williams should have traded because he has more value than what he is worth on the mound to the White Sox. He is going to have another rough season being hit around the American League. The fifth spot in the rotation is in even greater flux. Gavin Floyd has a lot of talent, but he is a long term project. He has major confidence and control issues due to the way the Phillies tried to rush him through their system before he was ready. John Danks, acquired for McCarthy has a lot of talent but is not ready to make an impact on the Major League level. Like the Twins, the back of this rotation is going to be a mess to start the season, but there are not a plethora of in house solutions to fix matters. 

The 2006 version of the White Sox was driven by offense. Chicago is going to hit a lot of homers once again with Paul Konerko, Joe Crede, Jim Thome, and Jermaine Dye comprising the middle of the order. The offense will not be as productive, though as Dye figures to regress after a career year. Jim Thome figures to do the same as the wear and tear that comes with age will take a toll. Thome does not have the same motivation that he did last season when he was coming off a disastrous 2005. Nobody doubts that he will be productive. He just will not be as productive as he has been in the past. Juan Uribe cannot help but improve on his terrible 2006. Darrin Erstad will do the same on Brian Anderson’s putrid stats. A.J. Pierzynski and Tad Iguchi are above average hitters for their position. Chicago is going to have a problem at the top of its order also as Ozzie Guillen seems set to have Darrin Erstad and Scott Podsednik bat 1-2. Both are good players. They bring something unique to a team. They both cause trouble on the bases and play with a reckless abandon that cannot help but rub off and have a positive effect on a team. The problem is that neither guy gets on base enough. One of these guys at the top of the lineup with a low on base percentage is one thing because the way these guys create havoc once they are on helps to make up for it. With both guys hitting in the first two slots, there is going to be nobody for the big hitters to drive in. The Sox would be well advised to give top prospect Josh Fields a long look to take one of the two outfield spots and use Erstad or Podsednik as a speedy defensive replacement and pinch runner.

Bobby Jenks is a good closer, a prototypical power pitcher who gets the job done despite a high ERA.  Matt Thornton and Mike MacDougal constitute a solid set up corps. Andy Sisco is an interesting project who should pitch well in a short role, and David Aardsma was a nice pickup in a trade with the Cubs. Aside from MacDougal, all of these pitchers throw hard and should constitute a solid bullpen. The White Sox utilized their deep bullpen in 2005 to their advantage in close games. This unit is not as deep, but it has potential to be very good. 

The White Sox are solid all around. However, they were not good enough to get to the postseason last year. Their offense will not be as good, and their rotation has major holes. The bullpen can only do so much. Ozzie Guillen also could become a factor in this team’s demise. He has done a terrific job with the Pale Hose, but a team can only endure so much of his volatility before it starts tuning him out. This team might be ready for a new voice if things start to go badly. The White Sox should be good enough to stay in the race for a while, but it is tough to see them getting back to the postseason.

5. Kansas City Royals

This franchise is an embarrassment. There is no other way to put it. In what will undoubtedly go down among the worst contracts in the history of professional sports, the Royals gave Gil Meche $55 million this offseason. That money goes to a guy with a 4.65 career ERA in a pitchers’ park. Meche has had an ERA in excess of 5.00 in two of the past three seasons. He has one season where he posted an ERA under 4.00, and he did not even throw 90 innings that year. The Royals should be ashamed of themselves for that deal. It was an irresponsible deal done solely to quiet their critics who justifiably complained that they were pocketing a great deal of money made in revenue sharing. The thing is that it was better off when they were cheapskates. Then at least it was conceivable that one day they would spend their savings on something worthwhile. Now their payroll is tied down by this absurd deal. Some have argued that Chris Carpenter and Jason Schmidt did not start thriving until they were Meche’s age. Those guys are the exception to the rule. When a guy has pitched in mediocre fashion for as long as Meche has, the vast majority of the time that guy has stayed mediocre through the course of baseball history. Even if Gil does turn into an ace, this was a very low percentage gamble.

Alex Gordon should make an immediate impact at third base. He is the best position player prospect in baseball. Mark Teahen, David DeJesus, and Ryan Shealy are other solid young players in Kansas City’s lineup. Mike Sweeney keeps on plugging away in obscurity, battling injuries. Unlike Johnny Damon and Carlos Beltran, Sweeney never escaped Kansas City in his prime to show his talent to the baseball world. It is sad that many fans could not appreciate a good career because it was spent on such a lousy team. Angel Berroa, John Buck or Jason LaRue, and Mark Grudzielanek, and Emil Brown round out a lineup full of guys who are either past their primes, far away from reaching their primes, or never had primes to begin with.

The rotation consists of the mediocre Meche. The similarly mediocre Odalis Perez follows him. Next come Luke Hudson and JorgeDe la Rosa. Neither guy is good at all. Brian Bannister and Zack Grienke are the first starters who will see time that have any potential at all. This is simply going to be an abysmal rotation. The bullpen is not much better. Octavio Dotel is the alleged anchor although he has not pitched effectively since Tommy John surgery in 2005. After him is a veritable who’s who of no names.

The Royals have a few quality young players, but none are likely to be impact players without seasoning. Of the veterans on the roster, few are quality. This team is going to be abysmal once again. Some bad teams at least bring in a few good players in the offseason to create some sort of preseason buzz. It is sad when Gil Meche is the highest profile acquisition a team has made in three years. There is at least more young talent in the organization than at any time in recent memory, but it needs time to develop and to be surrounded with other quality acquisitions. The other four teams in the division all could realistically go to the postseason under a certain scenario. Not finishing last would take a miracle for this team. The Royals are years of developing talent and making good front office decisions from even tasting respectability.

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4:08:18 PM EDT

1. New York Yankees

The Yankees have won their division in each of the past nine seasons. They have to be the favored to extend that streak to a decade in 2007. The biggest reason is their offense. No team in baseball has a deeper lineup. The anticipated first base platoon of Doug Mientkiewicz and either Josh Phelps or Andy Phillips is the only spot that can even be considered a remotely easy out. If Mientkiewicz posts something close to his .359 career on base percentage, that would give the team excellent production from the ninth best hitter in a lineup. What was an extremely productive offensive unit last season figures to get only better with walk machine Bobby Abreu in the mix from the beginning of the season and Hideki Matsui returning fully healed from the broken wrist that cost him most of 2006. Making Jason Giambi the full-time DH will keep him fresh and less likely to succumb to injury, and using Melky Cabrera as a quasi-regular supersub in the outfield will have the same effect on the aging trio of Abreu, Matsui, and Johnny Damon. Alex Rodriguez is in a contract season, which means he will be poised to prove his naysayers wrong and put together a big year. Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano cannot be expected to put up the same numbers they did last season, but they still should post elite numbers for their positions. New York’s lineup will not get itself out. It will wear pitchers down, take walks, and hammer the ball once it gets pitches to hit. This lineup could score 1,000 runs if everybody stays healthy. It gives them a chance to win every game.

The Yanks gave their rotation an overhaul in the offseason. Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina are back to anchor it. After that, the Yanks sent the cantankerous and over the hill Randy Johnson packing and brought back Andy Pettitte, who was one of the best pitchers in the second half of 2006 after a dominant 2005 campaign. Unlike most recently acquired hurlers, the Yankees will not have to worry about Pettitte proving that he can pitch in New York. He already did so in his first stint with the team. Pettitte embraces the pressure that comes with being a Yankee. He gives the Yanks a terrific top trio. At the end of the rotation, Carl Pavano and Kei Igawa are question marks, Pavano’s ability to stay healthy and Igawa’s ability to adjust to the Majors being the biggest concerns. However, should either falter, New York has plenty in reserve backing them up. Brian Cashman has done a brilliant job in the past two seasons restocking his farm system with Major League caliber arms. Darrell Rasner, Jeff Karstens, Humberto Sanchez, Tyler Clippard, and Ross Ohlendorf all could potentially see time in New York this season. The Yanks also have a prospect in Phillip Hughes who most observers feel would be a well above average Major Leaguer right now. The team will start him in AAA to limit his innings early in the year, but he should see action in the show and keep a rotation spot later in the season. The Yankees at this point have a great shot at signing Roger Clemens as well. There are some concerns about Pettitte’s balky elbow and Mussina’s age, but again there are guys who can fill in and do an adequate job. This influx of talent also gives the teams plenty of trading chips with which to acquire a veteran before the deadline. With this offense, all the Yankees will need is adequate to make the postseason. The big horses are for October, when runs will not be so easy to come by, facing top pitching. 

New York is also going to have a deep bullpen to hold the opposition down in close games. Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer ever, is the anchor. An under the radar acquisition was Luis Vizcaino, who came over in the Randy Johnson deal. Vizcaino is a reliable short guy in late innings who has a lot of success against lefties. He will help take some of the load off Kyle Farnsworth and Scott Proctor, who is coming off a breakout year where he finally discovered that sacrificing some velocity for the sake of movement is what will make for an effective pitcher. Ron Villone and Mike Myers give the team a pair of reliable veteran lefty relievers. New York also has a plethora of young arms to call on if needed in Brian Bruney, Chris Britton, T.J. Beam, J. Brent Cox, Jose Veras, and even Sean Henn and Colter Bean if necessary. These pitchers all could make a dent in New York this season. The Yankees have finally committed to making their roster younger, deeper, and more flexible than at any time since 2002. That is bad news for the rest of a division that has had enough trouble with this team.

2. Boston Red Sox
   

After months of searching, the Red Sox have found their closer. It is the exact same guy as the old closer. Fans from Beantown should be ecstatic that Jonathan Papelbon is back in the role in which he thrived last season. Papelbon spent his summer making sure that the Bosox did not give away games that they had as well as any reliever in the Majors. The plan was for him to move to the rotation in 2007, but the reality is that he is more valuable in a very thin bullpen. If he was not closing games, Boston would have to choose from the likes of Mike Timlin, Brandon Donnelly, and Joel Pineiro. That would have led to a lot of ninth inning losses. Papelbon’s presence takes Boston’s bullpen from abysmal to simply below average. He allows everybody else to slide back into a spot where they are slightly less overmatched and gives Terry Francona at least one guy he can count on in his relief corps. It is tough to figure why Boston made the move in the first place. Papelbon was so valuable for them in that role in 2006, and his lack of a reliable off speed or breaking pitch meant that he probably would not have been a frontline starter. His best pitch, the fastball, also would not have been as effective since he would have to pace himself during games, instead of putting every bit of effort he had into every pitch, which he does as a closer since he only has to throw one inning per game. Relief pitchers can get away with relying purely on a fastball and a splitter since hitters only see them once per game and have to adjust from the style of the previous pitcher. As a starter, that will not work because hitters can adjust between at bats with the previous at bat being a valuable reference point. Papelbon probably would have been rotation worthy, but he would not have been nearly as effective as he has been out of the bullpen.

Boston’s rotation is heralded as elite upon the addition of Daisuke Matsuzaka. The reality is that it is as hit or miss as could possibly be. Matsuzaka has to adjust to an entirely new league of hitters. Curt Schilling is old and came into camp out of shape and overweight. Those are two factors frighteningly suggesting that an injury is possible. Josh Beckett has all the potential in the world to become an ace. The problem is that has been true for his entire career, and outside of a stretch for a few months in 2003, he has yet to deliver on that promise. The back of the rotation with Tim Wakefield and Jon Lester should be solid, assuming that Lester will be ready to go once the team gets out of April and actually needs a fifth starter and is fully recovered from cancer. Lester’s presence is another factor in showing why Papelbon as closer makes sense. Lester has proven himself to be an adequate rotation guy. If Papelbon was starting, the Sox would have a massive hole at closer, and Lester would be either serving long relief duty or pitching in AAA. At any rate, this rotation is the textbook definition of hit or miss. No amount of success or failure would be surprising. 

The Sox will be led offensively as always by Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Boston spent its offseason seemingly bolstering its lineup by adding J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo. Both signed massive contracts worth more than either was worth. This epitomizes the puzzling nature of Boston’s recent front office moves. In the past, they have made moves that have not worked out, but at least the logic was evident. They did not want to overpay Johnny Damon so they got Coco Crisp, a younger, cheaper player with a lot of potential. They traded for Josh Beckett, a former World Series MVP who had a history of beating the Yankees and was still years away from free agency. The recent moves underscore the lack of common sense thinking emanating from the Red Sox’s front office recently. Drew is the kind of player that Boston fans will hate. He is not as good as his numbers would indicate. He is always hurt and is unwilling to play when banged up. He does not perform in big spots. He is not a good clubhouse influence. He does not play hard at all times. In tough times in 2003 and 2004, the Red Sox relied on their great chemistry in the clubhouse. They were a bunch of blue collar guys who liked and respected each other. This trust made them fearless, oblivious to pressure. Drew is the kind of guy who will put a hamper on that, the anti-Trot Nixon. He cares about his paycheck more than anything. The problem is that Boston has painted itself into a corner. Now the Sox fill holes by drastically overpaying big name players, leaving no money for glaring weaknesses like the bullpen. They need to be right because these contracts make their roster inflexible. The only way to correct errors is by digging themselves even deeper, eating bad deals, and signing new guys to even bigger deals. In the process, it brings a collection of mercenaries with no loyalty that will not go to battle with each other and falls apart when faced with adversity. The Yankees tried the same approach, and it failed. Only now have the Yanks reversed their ways because they have seen the error of this approach. Drew’s signing is a signal that the Sox are heading into that same chasm. The same goes for Lugo, a guy who became a productive player in the anonymity of Tampa Bay but was abysmal when traded to a contending Dodgers team last season. The Red Sox threw money at big names that they will have to stick with for the long haul before considering how they would fit in the clubhouse and how they would respond to Boston. In the past, they looked for bargains that fit the mold like Bill Mueller and the ultimate case, David Ortiz. They have just become another version of the Yankee teams whose spending habits made their fans cry foul. Drew will put up numbers when he stays healthy, but he will not have the same impact those numbers would suggest. Lugo probably will have a rough go of things in Beantown.

The real question is what Boston’s front office has been thinking recently. They traded away starting pitching depth in Bronson Arroyo last season to get a young slugger with potential in Wily Mo Pena. It was a move that was going to hurt short term. The hope was that he would develop into a slugger down the line. With the signing of Drew, Pena’s spot in the lineup has been blocked for at least two years. Why hurt the team in the short run and then never give the guy you sacrificed for a chance to develop? Behind the plate, Jason Varitek for all the leadership he provides in the clubhouse is on the decline. This would be a great time for Josh Bard to ease his way into at least a platoon role and take some of the load off Varitek’s shoulders. However, Bard is in San Diego now because the Red Sox panicked when he had trouble catching Tim Wakefield early last season. The team got rid of him because apparently an aging Doug Mirabelli was worth it and was the only available catcher capable of catching a knuckleball. They also gave up on Bard’s ability to do so too early. They played hard ball when Johnny Damon wanted a new contract but threw loads of money at Drew. Damon embodied the fearless nature of those Sox teams, was a great clubhouse presence leading to that great chemistry that helped the team, and gave everything he had on the field. Why let a fan favorite go to an archrival and break your fans’ hearts only to give Drew more money a year later? These moves go against everything the Red Sox said they were about. They used to be about sound financial decision making, keeping an eye on the future, and finding the right players, not necessarily the biggest names. There were a few times they forgot this along the way, like in 2003 when the Sox got desperate at the deadline, panicked, and surrendered 2006 NL Batting Champion Freddy Sanchez, who could be playing shortstop for a much cheaper price than Lugo, and Mike Gonzalez, who could help fortify that bullpen, for Jeff Suppan and Scott Sauerbeck, but those moves were the exception to the rule. The Red Sox have gotten very short sighted and impulsive in their acquisitions. 

At any rate, Dustin Pedroia should be an above average starter as a rookie at second base. Mike Lowell will add punch to the offense at third along with stellar defense. Kevin Youkilis will keep the offense moving with his excellent eye. The catching position will be a weakness with Varitek and Mirabelli in decline. Coco Crisp should bounce back after a rough first year in Boston. He is a talented player. Boston is going to have an above average offense. It is not as deep or dynamic as the Yankees’ lineup, but they do have good support for the two big guns.

The bullpen is going to need two guys to step up for them. The first is Craig Hansen. The highly touted St. John’s product needs to step up this season and finally make good on the potential he has. Hansen has the stuff to become an excellent closer. All that the Sox need is for him to become a bridge to Papelbon. Boston also needs Joel Pineiro to become a seventh inning guy. He is a reclamation project. Pineiro struggled as a starter for Seattle, but he has terrific stuff. He could shine in a relief role where he only has to face hitters once per game. If both these guys fill their respective roles and Boston leaves Papelbon where he belongs, an aging and declining Mike Timlin and Brandon Donnelly can take on the reduced roles they belong in, and the Sox will have a top flight bullpen. If not, this team is going to give away a lot of games in the seventh and eighth innings.

The Sox have a ton of question marks. There is enough talent on the roster for them to leapfrog Toronto in the division and win the Wild Card as they have in three of the past four seasons. Last season’s team was hampered by an ungodly amount of injuries which led to its downfall more than anything else. Matsuzaka has enough above average pitches that he should thrive in America. Schilling is a major injury concern. It would not be surprising to see him end up on the DL multiple times. Beckett has to prove that he will do the job before anybody can place trust in him. The same goes for Hansen and Pineiro. Lugo is probably going to struggle like Edgar Renteria. Drew will help bolster the offense when he is in the lineup but probably will miss time. Crisp has the talent to show the Red Sox what they thought they were getting. These are my takes on how these questions will be answered. They will need more of these to go right than wrong because there is nobody adequate behind these guys. I think enough will go right for Boston to be a good team, but there are too many issues to have them beating the Yankees. Their lack of cohesion and depth will come back to bite them in the postseason. 

3. Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays made a splash once again this offseason by giving Frank Thomas a two year deal, luring the Big Hurt from Oakland. Thomas bounced back from injury in a big way last season, cranking thirty-nine homers en route to leading the A’s to an AL West title. He will join Troy Glaus and Vernon Wells in the middle of a power-packed Toronto lineup. Alex Rios, Lyle Overbay, Reed Johnson, and the underrated Greg Zaun are all above average hitters in this deep lineup, and highly-touted Adam Lind could crack the lineup at some point this season. Toronto will more than adequately be able to make up for the losses of Frank Catalonotto and Bengie Molina. With all these above average hitters, Toronto is going to score runs. 

The problem is going to be pitching. The Jays have Roy Halladay at the top, a pitcher more effective than anybody not named Santana. Things get dicey from that point. A.J. Burnett is very highly regarded, but he is perennially inconsistent and always good for a few trips to the DL per year. After Burnett there is Gustavo Chacin, a pitcher hampered by elbow injuries in 2006. Even if he is able to pitch, it is unclear whether he will be fully recovered from his issues. Even if the top three are effective, the last two slots in Toronto’s rotation could not be weaker. They will need to hope that some combination of John Thompson, Tomo Ohka, and Victor Zambrano puts aside past injury and effectiveness issues. None of the three are very good, and they will get sixty percent of the starts minimum unless the Jays call up David McGowan and Shaun Marcum, neither of whom is ready to take on the AL East. Toronto is badly going to miss the stability that Ted Lilly brought to the middle of the rotation, although its tough to blame them for not matching the outrageous contract the Cubs gave him.

Toronto is going to have to win a lot of high-scoring games. On paper, their bullpen appears to be above average. B.J. Ryan is one of the game’s best closers. Behind him, Toronto lost a very effective reliever, Justin Speier, to the Angels, but Jason Frasor and Brandon League both should be reliable in late inning roles. Neither will likely be as productive as Speier, but a lot of teams will do worse. The Blue Jays have a plethora of other young arms to choose from to fill out their pitching staff. They should be able to find some mix given the options. 

Toronto will be able to score with just about anybody. Their bullpen should win them more games than they lose. All that their starters need to do is keep them in most games. Unfortunately for the Jays, that will be a lot to ask. Halladay virtually guarantees them a win every time he pitches. However, the back end is going to be abysmal. If any of the top three misses any time, the lack of depth is going to become even more glaring. John Gibbons also seems to do a good job alienating himself with his players as separate feuds with Shea Hillenbrand and Ted Lilly last season seem to indicate. There is a real danger that this team could tune him out the second things start to go south. Ultimately, though, the end of the rotation is going to cost too many games for this team to make the postseason.
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