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My Bracket: 2007
Thursday, March 15, 2007
11:52:00 AM EDT
There was a time when I was really good at filling out a bracket. Then I started posting my picks on this space in 2005. Since I did that, I have gone 0 for 8 in picking Final Four teams. That's going to change this year. After a year of watching every game I had the chance to see, I'm ready to try again. I am determined to see at least one of my picks make it to Atlanta.
East Region
1st Round
1) North Carolina def. 16) Eastern Kentucky
9) Michigan State def. 8) Marquette
*Tom Izzo always seems to have his team ready for March Madness. Drew Neitzel is the kind of player with Tournament experience who can take a game over. That beomes even more of a possibility now that Marquette will have to play this game without Dominic James.
5) USC def. 12) Arkansas
*Most agree that Arkansas was not a worthy Tournament team. This should be on display in this contest.
4) Texas def. 13) New Mexico State
6) Vanderbilt def. 11) George Washington
3) Washington State def.14) Oral Roberts
7) Boston College def. 10) Texas Tech
*This game is a great matchup for BC. The Eagles are a team with a reputation of being physical. The thing that makes them unique is that the perimeter players are the physical ones. Big men like Tyler Roche, John Oates, and Shamari Spears are relatively soft. The Red Raiders have no big men to exploit this. BC's hybrid zone should stifle Tech's motion offense. Bob Knight's crew has nobody to match up with Jared Dudley, who should have a monster game. Knight's refusal to adjust his defense against a player he has no answer for led Kevin Durant to go for 37 and 23 against him earlier this year. Dudley will not have that kind of game, but he will carry the Eagles to a win as BC's guards will pound Texas Tech's physically.
2) Georgetown def. 15) Belmont
2nd Round
1) North Carolina def. 9) Michigan State
4) Texas def. 5) USC
6) Vanderbilt def. 3) Washington State
*Vanderbilt is a team built around the perimeter shot. Washington State gives up too many open looks from long range. The Cougars' inexperience will play a role as well. They are not ready to make a deep run into the NCAA Tournament, and the expectations that come with having a high seed will prove to be too much pressure.
2) Georgetown def. 7) Boston College
*If you're looking for an upset, stay away from this game. Roy Hibbert should eat the Eagles alive. They have no answer for him. That hybrid zone that worked so well against Texas Tech is not built to play against the Princeton offense. Georgetown will exploit constant mismatches and blown defensive switches. A veteran team like BC might have been a threat to surprise people had it not received such a terrible matchup early.
Regional Semifinals
4) Texas def. 1) North Carolina
*After a record-setting Big XII Tournament, Kevin Durant is ready to turn the NCAA Tournament onto its head. He is good enough to win any game by himself. Even in games where it seems like he is not making a major impact, he puts up monster numbers. North Carolina might go 10 deep, but they have nobody who matches up with him. Roy Williams has failed in this spot too many times to come up with a comprehensive gameplan to slow him down. Durant will carry Texas to the upset.
2) Georgetown def. 6) Vanderbilt
*The Commodores have no answer for Roy Hibbert or Jeff Green
Regional Final
4) Texas def. 2) Georgetown
*Georgetown has Jeff Green, a long and athletic forward who might be better suited to guarding Durant than any player in college basketball. All he will be able to do is slow Durant down. On the other end, Durant will cause Green major problems and can eliminate easy Georgetown buckets in the Princeton with his shot blocking ability. The Hoyas do not really have an answer for D.J. Augustin. This could be the game where the unheralded freshman point guard shines like Gerry McNamara against Kansas in 2003.
South Region
1st Round
1) Ohio State def. 16) CCSU
8) BYU def. 9) Xavier
*BYU has the post game and perimeter shooting to win the kind of grind it out affair Xavier will try to produce.
12) Long Beach State def. 5) Tennessee
*Long Beach is a senior loaded team with a unique style that puts up a lot of points. Those are some nice ingredients for an upset. They do not have a lot of size, but the Vols are not very strong up front either. They will come out fired up looking to shock the world.
4) Virginia def. 13) Albany
6) Louisville def. 11) Stanford
*Rick Pitino's squad will not lose a de facto home game to a Stanford club that struggled to make the field.
3) Texas A&M def. 14) Penn
*Penn caught a tough break. An experienced team like them might have been a potential upset pick. However, it drew a Texas A&M team that is much more talented and athletic version of itself.
7) Nevada def. 10) Creighton
*Nevada was talented enough to crack the top 10 this season. They should be able to win at least a game in March Madness. They have something to prove after late struggles.
2) Memphis def. 15) North Texas
2nd Round:
1) Ohio State def. 8) BYU
4) Virginia def.12) Long Beach State
*Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds match Long Beach's explosive perimeter play. Mamadi Diane and Adrian Joseph are inconsistent big men, but they should go off against a team as weak up front as the Beach.
3) Texas A&M def. 6) Louisville
*The Aggies should be physical enough up front to slow down Louisville's big duo of Padgett and Caracter. A&M will survive a virtual road game.
2) Memphis def. 7) Nevada
*Memphis might not have played a good schedule, but their athleticism will carry the day against Nevada.
Regional Semifinals
1) Ohio State def. 4) Virginia
*Greg Oden goes off against that inconsistent Virginia frontline.
3) Texas A&M def. 2) Memphis
*Texas A&M's stifling defense will negate Memphis' athletic advantage, and a partisan San Antonio crowd will carry the Aggies to the Elite Eight.
Regional Final
3) Texas A&M def. 1) Ohio State
*Texas A&M's hounding defense will hound Greg Oden inside, while Acie Law takes over the game and uses the Buckeye guards' inexperience to carry his team to the Final Four.
Midwest Region
1st Round
1) Florida def. 16) Jackson State
8) Arizona def. 9) Purdue
*Arizona is talented enough to make a run in this Tournament. Their play has been erratic all year long, but they should beat Purdue on physical ability alone.
12) Old Dominion def. 5) Butler
*ODU's intense half court defense will expose Butler's erratic shooting.
4) Maryland def. 13) Davidson
*Davidson played Ohio State tough last year, but the current core is inexperienced. Maryland is too good to end a season with a pair of losses to teams its better than.
11) Winthrop def. 6) Notre Dame
*The Eagles have everything one would look for in an upset team. They have plenty of experience. All starters are appearing in their third Tournament. They have motivation after losing to Tennessee in heartbreak fashion last year. They have good guard play and can stroke the 3. They have good post play. Finally, they have a one-dimensional opponent in the opening round.
3) Oregon def. 14) Miami (OH)
10) Georgia Tech def. 7) UNLV
*Tech got hot at the righttime. They now are playing with a load of confidence. They are a team that might benefit from losing early in their conference tournament to Wake Forest. A young team like that might have lost its focus and become overconfident after finishing the season in such a strong manner. They have learned their lesson and will come out completely focused for the NCAA Tournament.
2) Wisconsin def. 15) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
*I'm not picking A&M-CC, but I will say that if there is any jaw-dropping upset on the first 2 days, this will be it. Without Brian Butch, Wisconsin is a different team. Too much of their scoring load now falls on Alando Tucker. They play at a slow pace that keeps games close, and the Islanders have a terrific big man in Chris Daniels who can take over a game. Wisconsin is more likely to win big than to not, but keep an eye on this game.
2nd Round
1) Florida def. 8) Arizona
*I need to see Arizona show up for a big game before I'm ready to pick them for an upset this big.
4) Maryland def. 12) Old Dominion
*ODU does not have the athletes to match up.
3) Oregon def. 11) Winthrop
*The Ducks have the best player on the floor, Aaron Brooks. He will carry his team through.
10) Georgia Tech def. 2) Wisconsin
*The Jackets are the kind of team that can give Wisconsin fits. They will put constant pressure on the Badgers in the backcourt, and turn the contest into a track meet. That is not what Wisconsin wants. A team this deep will throw a lot of looks at Tucker and frustrate him with aggressive defensive play.
Regional Semifinals
1) Florida def. 4) Maryland
3) Oregon def. 10) Georgia Tech
*An up tempo game is just what Oregon wants.
Regional Final
1) Florida def. 3) Oregon
*The Gators seem to have hit their stride at the right time once again. fi they play their game, there is no team in the Midwest that is deep enough to match up with them.
West Region
1st Round
1) Kansas def. 16) Niagara
9) Villanova def. 8) Kentucky
*Mike Nardi's status and the machup problem Randolph Morris creates made me pick Kentucky earlier, but it is difficult to pick against Scottie Reynolds at this point. Ketucky is the typical team that stumbled to the finish and is waiting to be put out of its own misery. 'Nova takes the battle of Wildcats.
5) Virginia Tech def. 12) Illinois
4) Southern Illinois def. 13) Holy Cross
11) VCU def. 6) Duke
*Duke has been consistently inconsistent since conference play began. They are a young team easily rattled that does not protect the ball nearly enough. Playing an aggressive, trapping defensive team like VCU is a bad matchup. Eric Maynor should have a monster game against Greg Paulus. For all the talk about Coach K in the Tournament, his teams have lost to less talented squads a lot recently.
3) Pittsburgh def. 14) Wright State
10) Gonzaga def.7) Indiana
*Mark Few feels that his team is playing its best basketball without Josh Heytvelt. He always seems to prepare his team to come together whenever it is off the radar in March.
2) UCLA def. 15) Weber State
2nd Round
1) Kansas def. 9) Villanova
*The Jayhawks are too deep up front.
4) Southern Illinois def. 5) Virginia Tech
*The Salukis play defense as well as anybody. Tech is not a very dynamic offensive unit.
3) Pittsburgh def. 11) VCU
*VCU has no answer for Aaron Gray.
2) UCLA def. 10) Gonzaga
*UCLA has lost less talent from the teams' classic Sweet Sixteen game last season.
Regional Semifinals
1) Kansas def. 4) Southern Illinois
*The Jayhawks' depth should wear down a thin Southern Illinois team.
2) UCLA def. 3) Pittsburgh
*In the Ben Howland Bowl, Pittsburgh will face its worst nightmare, a team that matches its toughness with more overall talent.
Regional Final
2) UCLA def. 1) Kansas
*The Bruins are a dynamic enough defensive team to stifle Kansas. Their big game experience will be a factor against a young Kansas team. The Jayhawks are a lot like last season's UConn team. They have plenty of talent and scorers, but nobody has stepped up to become the main guy who can be counted on when things look bleak. In this game, Kansas will regret not having that guy.
National Semifinals
3) Texas A&M def. 4) Texas
*A rivalry game takes place in the Final Four. In contests where the teams are familiar, it comes down to execution. A&M can stifle 4 of the 5 Longhorns on the floor, and Billy Gillespie will throw a bunch of different looks at Durant to hold him relatively in check. A triangle and 2 look he used against Durant and Augustin earlier this season had a lot of success. Rick Barnes is not as good of a tactician, and he will be unable to adjust.
2) UCLA def. 1) Florida
*In 1990, UNLV blew Duke out in the National Championship Game. Duke beat them in a National Semifinal the next year. I expect history to repeat itself. The Bruins are motivated by the lasting memory of heartbreak last season. Noah and Horford have not faced the pounding that they will take in this game. The Gators are bound to not play their best in one of these big games. I think UCLA shocks them here.
National Championship
2) UCLA def. 3) Texas A&M
*They might need to bring body bags to this game between a pair of teams. This should be a low-scoring affair. I'll take the motivation and depth of UCLA to overcome Acie Law's heroics.
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11:52:00 AM EDT
My Bracket: 2007
There was a time when I was really good at filling out a bracket. Then I started posting my picks on this space in 2005. Since I did that, I have gone 0 for 8 in picking Final Four teams. That's going to change this year. After a year of watching every game I had the chance to see, I'm ready to try again. I am determined to see at least one of my picks make it to Atlanta.
East Region
1st Round
1) North Carolina def. 16) Eastern Kentucky
9) Michigan State def. 8) Marquette
*Tom Izzo always seems to have his team ready for March Madness. Drew Neitzel is the kind of player with Tournament experience who can take a game over. That beomes even more of a possibility now that Marquette will have to play this game without Dominic James.
5) USC def. 12) Arkansas
*Most agree that Arkansas was not a worthy Tournament team. This should be on display in this contest.
4) Texas def. 13) New Mexico State
6) Vanderbilt def. 11) George Washington
3) Washington State def.14) Oral Roberts
7) Boston College def. 10) Texas Tech
*This game is a great matchup for BC. The Eagles are a team with a reputation of being physical. The thing that makes them unique is that the perimeter players are the physical ones. Big men like Tyler Roche, John Oates, and Shamari Spears are relatively soft. The Red Raiders have no big men to exploit this. BC's hybrid zone should stifle Tech's motion offense. Bob Knight's crew has nobody to match up with Jared Dudley, who should have a monster game. Knight's refusal to adjust his defense against a player he has no answer for led Kevin Durant to go for 37 and 23 against him earlier this year. Dudley will not have that kind of game, but he will carry the Eagles to a win as BC's guards will pound Texas Tech's physically.
2) Georgetown def. 15) Belmont
2nd Round
1) North Carolina def. 9) Michigan State
4) Texas def. 5) USC
6) Vanderbilt def. 3) Washington State
*Vanderbilt is a team built around the perimeter shot. Washington State gives up too many open looks from long range. The Cougars' inexperience will play a role as well. They are not ready to make a deep run into the NCAA Tournament, and the expectations that come with having a high seed will prove to be too much pressure.
2) Georgetown def. 7) Boston College
*If you're looking for an upset, stay away from this game. Roy Hibbert should eat the Eagles alive. They have no answer for him. That hybrid zone that worked so well against Texas Tech is not built to play against the Princeton offense. Georgetown will exploit constant mismatches and blown defensive switches. A veteran team like BC might have been a threat to surprise people had it not received such a terrible matchup early.
Regional Semifinals
4) Texas def. 1) North Carolina
*After a record-setting Big XII Tournament, Kevin Durant is ready to turn the NCAA Tournament onto its head. He is good enough to win any game by himself. Even in games where it seems like he is not making a major impact, he puts up monster numbers. North Carolina might go 10 deep, but they have nobody who matches up with him. Roy Williams has failed in this spot too many times to come up with a comprehensive gameplan to slow him down. Durant will carry Texas to the upset.
2) Georgetown def. 6) Vanderbilt
*The Commodores have no answer for Roy Hibbert or Jeff Green
Regional Final
4) Texas def. 2) Georgetown
*Georgetown has Jeff Green, a long and athletic forward who might be better suited to guarding Durant than any player in college basketball. All he will be able to do is slow Durant down. On the other end, Durant will cause Green major problems and can eliminate easy Georgetown buckets in the Princeton with his shot blocking ability. The Hoyas do not really have an answer for D.J. Augustin. This could be the game where the unheralded freshman point guard shines like Gerry McNamara against Kansas in 2003.
South Region
1st Round
1) Ohio State def. 16) CCSU
8) BYU def. 9) Xavier
*BYU has the post game and perimeter shooting to win the kind of grind it out affair Xavier will try to produce.
12) Long Beach State def. 5) Tennessee
*Long Beach is a senior loaded team with a unique style that puts up a lot of points. Those are some nice ingredients for an upset. They do not have a lot of size, but the Vols are not very strong up front either. They will come out fired up looking to shock the world.
4) Virginia def. 13) Albany
6) Louisville def. 11) Stanford
*Rick Pitino's squad will not lose a de facto home game to a Stanford club that struggled to make the field.
3) Texas A&M def. 14) Penn
*Penn caught a tough break. An experienced team like them might have been a potential upset pick. However, it drew a Texas A&M team that is much more talented and athletic version of itself.
7) Nevada def. 10) Creighton
*Nevada was talented enough to crack the top 10 this season. They should be able to win at least a game in March Madness. They have something to prove after late struggles.
2) Memphis def. 15) North Texas
2nd Round:
1) Ohio State def. 8) BYU
4) Virginia def.12) Long Beach State
*Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds match Long Beach's explosive perimeter play. Mamadi Diane and Adrian Joseph are inconsistent big men, but they should go off against a team as weak up front as the Beach.
3) Texas A&M def. 6) Louisville
*The Aggies should be physical enough up front to slow down Louisville's big duo of Padgett and Caracter. A&M will survive a virtual road game.
2) Memphis def. 7) Nevada
*Memphis might not have played a good schedule, but their athleticism will carry the day against Nevada.
Regional Semifinals
1) Ohio State def. 4) Virginia
*Greg Oden goes off against that inconsistent Virginia frontline.
3) Texas A&M def. 2) Memphis
*Texas A&M's stifling defense will negate Memphis' athletic advantage, and a partisan San Antonio crowd will carry the Aggies to the Elite Eight.
Regional Final
3) Texas A&M def. 1) Ohio State
*Texas A&M's hounding defense will hound Greg Oden inside, while Acie Law takes over the game and uses the Buckeye guards' inexperience to carry his team to the Final Four.
Midwest Region
1st Round
1) Florida def. 16) Jackson State
8) Arizona def. 9) Purdue
*Arizona is talented enough to make a run in this Tournament. Their play has been erratic all year long, but they should beat Purdue on physical ability alone.
12) Old Dominion def. 5) Butler
*ODU's intense half court defense will expose Butler's erratic shooting.
4) Maryland def. 13) Davidson
*Davidson played Ohio State tough last year, but the current core is inexperienced. Maryland is too good to end a season with a pair of losses to teams its better than.
11) Winthrop def. 6) Notre Dame
*The Eagles have everything one would look for in an upset team. They have plenty of experience. All starters are appearing in their third Tournament. They have motivation after losing to Tennessee in heartbreak fashion last year. They have good guard play and can stroke the 3. They have good post play. Finally, they have a one-dimensional opponent in the opening round.
3) Oregon def. 14) Miami (OH)
10) Georgia Tech def. 7) UNLV
*Tech got hot at the righttime. They now are playing with a load of confidence. They are a team that might benefit from losing early in their conference tournament to Wake Forest. A young team like that might have lost its focus and become overconfident after finishing the season in such a strong manner. They have learned their lesson and will come out completely focused for the NCAA Tournament.
2) Wisconsin def. 15) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
*I'm not picking A&M-CC, but I will say that if there is any jaw-dropping upset on the first 2 days, this will be it. Without Brian Butch, Wisconsin is a different team. Too much of their scoring load now falls on Alando Tucker. They play at a slow pace that keeps games close, and the Islanders have a terrific big man in Chris Daniels who can take over a game. Wisconsin is more likely to win big than to not, but keep an eye on this game.
2nd Round
1) Florida def. 8) Arizona
*I need to see Arizona show up for a big game before I'm ready to pick them for an upset this big.
4) Maryland def. 12) Old Dominion
*ODU does not have the athletes to match up.
3) Oregon def. 11) Winthrop
*The Ducks have the best player on the floor, Aaron Brooks. He will carry his team through.
10) Georgia Tech def. 2) Wisconsin
*The Jackets are the kind of team that can give Wisconsin fits. They will put constant pressure on the Badgers in the backcourt, and turn the contest into a track meet. That is not what Wisconsin wants. A team this deep will throw a lot of looks at Tucker and frustrate him with aggressive defensive play.
Regional Semifinals
1) Florida def. 4) Maryland
3) Oregon def. 10) Georgia Tech
*An up tempo game is just what Oregon wants.
Regional Final
1) Florida def. 3) Oregon
*The Gators seem to have hit their stride at the right time once again. fi they play their game, there is no team in the Midwest that is deep enough to match up with them.
West Region
1st Round
1) Kansas def. 16) Niagara
9) Villanova def. 8) Kentucky
*Mike Nardi's status and the machup problem Randolph Morris creates made me pick Kentucky earlier, but it is difficult to pick against Scottie Reynolds at this point. Ketucky is the typical team that stumbled to the finish and is waiting to be put out of its own misery. 'Nova takes the battle of Wildcats.
5) Virginia Tech def. 12) Illinois
4) Southern Illinois def. 13) Holy Cross
11) VCU def. 6) Duke
*Duke has been consistently inconsistent since conference play began. They are a young team easily rattled that does not protect the ball nearly enough. Playing an aggressive, trapping defensive team like VCU is a bad matchup. Eric Maynor should have a monster game against Greg Paulus. For all the talk about Coach K in the Tournament, his teams have lost to less talented squads a lot recently.
3) Pittsburgh def. 14) Wright State
10) Gonzaga def.7) Indiana
*Mark Few feels that his team is playing its best basketball without Josh Heytvelt. He always seems to prepare his team to come together whenever it is off the radar in March.
2) UCLA def. 15) Weber State
2nd Round
1) Kansas def. 9) Villanova
*The Jayhawks are too deep up front.
4) Southern Illinois def. 5) Virginia Tech
*The Salukis play defense as well as anybody. Tech is not a very dynamic offensive unit.
3) Pittsburgh def. 11) VCU
*VCU has no answer for Aaron Gray.
2) UCLA def. 10) Gonzaga
*UCLA has lost less talent from the teams' classic Sweet Sixteen game last season.
Regional Semifinals
1) Kansas def. 4) Southern Illinois
*The Jayhawks' depth should wear down a thin Southern Illinois team.
2) UCLA def. 3) Pittsburgh
*In the Ben Howland Bowl, Pittsburgh will face its worst nightmare, a team that matches its toughness with more overall talent.
Regional Final
2) UCLA def. 1) Kansas
*The Bruins are a dynamic enough defensive team to stifle Kansas. Their big game experience will be a factor against a young Kansas team. The Jayhawks are a lot like last season's UConn team. They have plenty of talent and scorers, but nobody has stepped up to become the main guy who can be counted on when things look bleak. In this game, Kansas will regret not having that guy.
National Semifinals
3) Texas A&M def. 4) Texas
*A rivalry game takes place in the Final Four. In contests where the teams are familiar, it comes down to execution. A&M can stifle 4 of the 5 Longhorns on the floor, and Billy Gillespie will throw a bunch of different looks at Durant to hold him relatively in check. A triangle and 2 look he used against Durant and Augustin earlier this season had a lot of success. Rick Barnes is not as good of a tactician, and he will be unable to adjust.
2) UCLA def. 1) Florida
*In 1990, UNLV blew Duke out in the National Championship Game. Duke beat them in a National Semifinal the next year. I expect history to repeat itself. The Bruins are motivated by the lasting memory of heartbreak last season. Noah and Horford have not faced the pounding that they will take in this game. The Gators are bound to not play their best in one of these big games. I think UCLA shocks them here.
National Championship
2) UCLA def. 3) Texas A&M
*They might need to bring body bags to this game between a pair of teams. This should be a low-scoring affair. I'll take the motivation and depth of UCLA to overcome Acie Law's heroics.
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