Coztanza's Commentary

Thursday, March 29, 2007
12:37:00 AM EDT
    4. Chicago White Sox

In both of the past two seasons, the team I have picked to finish fourth in the Central has won the American League pennant. This year that team is the Chicago White Sox. Chicago won the World Series in 2005 behind a dominant starting rotation. Last season the Pale Hose experienced many of the problems that I expect the Tigers to go through this season. Their pitchers were fatigued by pitching too many innings and an extra month of baseball and found themselves unable to duplicate career years. Chicago still has a solid top three in Mark Buherle, Jose Contreras, and Jon Garland. All three pitched over their respective heads in 2005. All came crashing back to Earth and had a disastrous first (Garland) or second (Contreras and Buherle) half in 2006. None was truly as good as their heights would suggest nor as bad as their lows would indicate. In 2007, all three should pitch like dependable starters but not like aces. The problem is that the Sox traded away their starting pitching depth in the offseason, sending Freddy Garcia to Philadelphia and Brandon McCarthy to Texas. With both pitchers, the White Sox have a terrific rotation from front to back. Without them, the last two spots are a major weakness. Javier Vazquez is a National League pitcher. He is the guy that Ken Williams should have traded because he has more value than what he is worth on the mound to the White Sox. He is going to have another rough season being hit around the American League. The fifth spot in the rotation is in even greater flux. Gavin Floyd has a lot of talent, but he is a long term project. He has major confidence and control issues due to the way the Phillies tried to rush him through their system before he was ready. John Danks, acquired for McCarthy has a lot of talent but is not ready to make an impact on the Major League level. Like the Twins, the back of this rotation is going to be a mess to start the season, but there are not a plethora of in house solutions to fix matters. 

The 2006 version of the White Sox was driven by offense. Chicago is going to hit a lot of homers once again with Paul Konerko, Joe Crede, Jim Thome, and Jermaine Dye comprising the middle of the order. The offense will not be as productive, though as Dye figures to regress after a career year. Jim Thome figures to do the same as the wear and tear that comes with age will take a toll. Thome does not have the same motivation that he did last season when he was coming off a disastrous 2005. Nobody doubts that he will be productive. He just will not be as productive as he has been in the past. Juan Uribe cannot help but improve on his terrible 2006. Darrin Erstad will do the same on Brian Anderson’s putrid stats. A.J. Pierzynski and Tad Iguchi are above average hitters for their position. Chicago is going to have a problem at the top of its order also as Ozzie Guillen seems set to have Darrin Erstad and Scott Podsednik bat 1-2. Both are good players. They bring something unique to a team. They both cause trouble on the bases and play with a reckless abandon that cannot help but rub off and have a positive effect on a team. The problem is that neither guy gets on base enough. One of these guys at the top of the lineup with a low on base percentage is one thing because the way these guys create havoc once they are on helps to make up for it. With both guys hitting in the first two slots, there is going to be nobody for the big hitters to drive in. The Sox would be well advised to give top prospect Josh Fields a long look to take one of the two outfield spots and use Erstad or Podsednik as a speedy defensive replacement and pinch runner.

Bobby Jenks is a good closer, a prototypical power pitcher who gets the job done despite a high ERA.  Matt Thornton and Mike MacDougal constitute a solid set up corps. Andy Sisco is an interesting project who should pitch well in a short role, and David Aardsma was a nice pickup in a trade with the Cubs. Aside from MacDougal, all of these pitchers throw hard and should constitute a solid bullpen. The White Sox utilized their deep bullpen in 2005 to their advantage in close games. This unit is not as deep, but it has potential to be very good. 

The White Sox are solid all around. However, they were not good enough to get to the postseason last year. Their offense will not be as good, and their rotation has major holes. The bullpen can only do so much. Ozzie Guillen also could become a factor in this team’s demise. He has done a terrific job with the Pale Hose, but a team can only endure so much of his volatility before it starts tuning him out. This team might be ready for a new voice if things start to go badly. The White Sox should be good enough to stay in the race for a while, but it is tough to see them getting back to the postseason.

5. Kansas City Royals

This franchise is an embarrassment. There is no other way to put it. In what will undoubtedly go down among the worst contracts in the history of professional sports, the Royals gave Gil Meche $55 million this offseason. That money goes to a guy with a 4.65 career ERA in a pitchers’ park. Meche has had an ERA in excess of 5.00 in two of the past three seasons. He has one season where he posted an ERA under 4.00, and he did not even throw 90 innings that year. The Royals should be ashamed of themselves for that deal. It was an irresponsible deal done solely to quiet their critics who justifiably complained that they were pocketing a great deal of money made in revenue sharing. The thing is that it was better off when they were cheapskates. Then at least it was conceivable that one day they would spend their savings on something worthwhile. Now their payroll is tied down by this absurd deal. Some have argued that Chris Carpenter and Jason Schmidt did not start thriving until they were Meche’s age. Those guys are the exception to the rule. When a guy has pitched in mediocre fashion for as long as Meche has, the vast majority of the time that guy has stayed mediocre through the course of baseball history. Even if Gil does turn into an ace, this was a very low percentage gamble.

Alex Gordon should make an immediate impact at third base. He is the best position player prospect in baseball. Mark Teahen, David DeJesus, and Ryan Shealy are other solid young players in Kansas City’s lineup. Mike Sweeney keeps on plugging away in obscurity, battling injuries. Unlike Johnny Damon and Carlos Beltran, Sweeney never escaped Kansas City in his prime to show his talent to the baseball world. It is sad that many fans could not appreciate a good career because it was spent on such a lousy team. Angel Berroa, John Buck or Jason LaRue, and Mark Grudzielanek, and Emil Brown round out a lineup full of guys who are either past their primes, far away from reaching their primes, or never had primes to begin with.

The rotation consists of the mediocre Meche. The similarly mediocre Odalis Perez follows him. Next come Luke Hudson and JorgeDe la Rosa. Neither guy is good at all. Brian Bannister and Zack Grienke are the first starters who will see time that have any potential at all. This is simply going to be an abysmal rotation. The bullpen is not much better. Octavio Dotel is the alleged anchor although he has not pitched effectively since Tommy John surgery in 2005. After him is a veritable who’s who of no names.

The Royals have a few quality young players, but none are likely to be impact players without seasoning. Of the veterans on the roster, few are quality. This team is going to be abysmal once again. Some bad teams at least bring in a few good players in the offseason to create some sort of preseason buzz. It is sad when Gil Meche is the highest profile acquisition a team has made in three years. There is at least more young talent in the organization than at any time in recent memory, but it needs time to develop and to be surrounded with other quality acquisitions. The other four teams in the division all could realistically go to the postseason under a certain scenario. Not finishing last would take a miracle for this team. The Royals are years of developing talent and making good front office decisions from even tasting respectability.

Written by georgecoztanza Blog about this entry |  Add to del.icio.us |  digg this

This entry has 0 comments: (Add your own)