Coztanza's Commentary

Thursday, March 29, 2007
12:39:00 AM EDT

1. Minnesota Twins

Conventional wisdom states that the Twins are in big trouble this season. They enter 2007 without Francisco Liriano, perhaps the second best pitcher in baseball, due to Tommy John surgery and Brad Radke, who pitched through a torn labrum at the end of last season, due to retirement. Many observers feel that Minnesota simply does not have the pitching to win a fifth Central title in six years. This is not the case. Johan Santana is the most dominating force in the American League. Putting him on the mound virtually guarantees the Twins a win every fifth day. All that they need to do in order to finish above .500 is win two of four games he does not pitch. Minnesota has the arms to do just that. Boof Bonser  pitched very well after being called up last season to replace Liriano. He should be able to build on that with his good control and ability to get a strikeout when he needs one. After a disastrous 2006, Carlos Silva worked all offseason to regain control of his sinker. His pitches were flat last season because he was not able to get under them. After a winter of recovery, Silva should be closer to the pitcher he was in 2004 and 2005 for the Twins. 

The key to the Twins’ season comes at the back of the rotation. It is not a question of whether guys will perform. It is instead how quickly will Terry Ryan pull the plug on a pair of ill-fated veterans and go with young talent. Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz will be terrible for the Twins. Ponson is a guy will all the natural ability in the world, but his terrible attitude and conditioning will assure he never comes close to reaching his potential. Ortiz posted an ERA in excess of 5.00 last season pitching in R.F.K. Stadium, an extreme pitchers’ park. Minnesota has quality young pitching waiting in the wings. Matt Garza struggled during a cup of coffee last season, but that was due to fatigue late in the season. He is ready to become a highly effective pitcher in the Majors. Scott Baker is another Twins minor leaguer who should make an impact before 2007 is over as are Kevin Slowley and J.D. Durbin. Minnesota cannot wait too long to pull the plug on what will be disastrous Ortiz and Ponson experiments. One can only guess that Terry Ryan will have learned from last season when he kicked mistake signings Tony Bautista and Juan Castro to the curb, and the team responded with younger players.

The Twins do not need their young pitchers to dominate. All that they need are to produce quality starts and to keep games close because Minnesota has one of the deepest bullpens in baseball. Joe Nathan, an elite closer, anchors the unit. Jesse Crain,  and Juan Rincon provide the Twins with terrific short relief. Matt Guillier has found a niche in long relief. Anthony Reyes is one of the top lefty specialists in baseball, and Pat Neschek pitched terrifically in his rookie campaign last season. This unit will not give away games. 

Entering last season, offense was Minnesota’s primary concern. After breakout years from Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, that does not seem to be much of a concern. Both guys are probably going to regress this season. .347 batting averages come for catchers once in a blue moon. However, both will be able to carry a productive offense as the killer M’s rank among the top offensive players from their respective positions. Morneau’s numbers probably will not drop drastically. He will just spread his production out through an entire season rather than condensing a monster year into a few months as he did in 2006. The potential was always there with these guys. Now that they have broken through, they are on their ways to long and productive careers. It often takes young players one season to gain the confidence necessary to do so. Both players now know they belong in the Majors as stars. That is half the battle. Mauer and Morneau are surrounded in the lineup by productive hitters in Torii Hunter, Luis Castillo, Michael Cuddyer, and Rondell White, who recovered from an awful start to finish with a flourish in 2006. Jeff Cirillo will serve as a lefty masher in a part time role. Jason Kubel should also pick up some of the offensive slack as the knee he wrecked back in 2004 has had another year to heal.

The Twins are run as well as any organization in baseball. Ron Gardenhire has the respect of his players and always seems to get the most from them as a result. Minnesota needs things to break right in terms of getting young pitchers into the rotation, getting those young pitchers to perform, and keeping Mauer and Morneau healthy since their lineup is full of supporting players and lacking big hitters. However, all of these are realistic. Santana gives Minnesota an advantage no other team can claim to have. I like the Twins to take the Central again. 

2. Cleveland Indians

Two factors kept the Indians from having a big season in 2006. The first was infield defense. The Tribe addressed that by upgrading the infield. Andy Marte takes over at third base for Aaron Boone, who never seemed to recover from the ACL he tore that cost him the 2004 season. Cleveland also picked up Josh Barfield to take Ronnie Belliard’s spot at second base. Jhonny Peralta should be much better at shortstop as well after addressing vision problems that plagued him last season, albeit he will still not become Gold Glove caliber. This new defensive look will aid a strong starting rotation that features C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Jake Westbrook, and Jeremy Sowers. All four young guns give the Tribe a chance to win every game that they pitch. The rotation is rounded out by wily veteran, Paul Byrd, a man who will bounce back nicely from a rough 2005.

Cleveland has a very deep lineup. Grady Sizemore is a terrific catalyst at the top of the lineup with a great eye, terrific speed, and good pop for a leadoff man. The anchor, Travis Hafner, needs no introduction. Hafner is a hitter who finally has enough name recognition to go with his gaudy stats that he could make a serious MVP push this season. Victor Martinez is below only Joe Mauer and Brian McCann in terms of production from the catching position. His problem is his abysmal rate of throwing out potential base stealers. When a catcher only nails 16 of 116, it cannot only be the pitchers. That is a major problem regardless of how good of a game he calls. Martinez ideally would move to either first base or DH, but both of those positions are filled. The Tribe still has no problem with his bat. Casey Blake is a nice middle of the order bat. The additions of Dave Dellucci and Trot Nixon to serve as lefty platoons opposite Jason Michaels and Ryan Garko were among the most underrated of the winter. Cleveland is going to have a pair of extremely productive platoons. Josh Barfield holds his own for a second baseman. There is some excellent depth as well with Shin-Soo Choo waiting in the minors, Kelly Shoppach as backup catcher, and half of the platoon on the bench. The only real weak link is Andy Marte, who still needs time to adjust to Major League hitting. He is not yet ready to become a productive hitter, but he will get on the job training. Cleveland only needs him to provide solid defense given how productive the rest of the lineup is. 

The reason that Cleveland will not win the division is the second issue the team had last season, its bullpen. Keith Foulke’s retirement did not really hurt the Indians. There was no sign he would ever be healthy again or productive even if healthy. The Indians added Aaron Fultz, Roberto Hernandez, and Joe Borowski over the offseason. All three are serviceable relievers. None of the three qualifies as elite. The fact that all three are considered upgrades says more about how awful this bullpen was a season ago (24 saves in 47 chances) than anything positive about the trio. Borowski will rack up saves and not blow giant leads, but he is very hittable. The same goes for the other two. Cleveland’s bullpen has gone from an F to a C-. That means that the Tribe will not give away as many games in late innings as a season ago. It also means that the team will lose enough of them to not win its division. By the end of the year, some combination of youngsters Tom Matsny Tony Sipp, Juan Lara, and Rafael Perez could be up as reinforcements, but the damage will have been done. Jason Davis and Fernando Cabrera really need to step up, but neither seems ready to put it all together. This bullpen probably will cost Cleveland a spot in the postseason and Eric Wedge his job.

3. Detroit Tigers 

The Tigers shocked the baseball world last summer by jumping out to an early commanding lead in the American League Central that they held for most of the year. Then they suffered a tail spin at the end of the season and were relegated to the Wild Card on the season’s last day. Everybody left them for dead in the postseason, but Detroit recovered to upset the Yankees in the ALDS and sweep the A’s in the ALCS. Most prognosticators then chose them over the Cardinals in the World Series, where they were dismantled in five games. No team has been more befuddling to me. Every time I thought they would fall apart, they got hot. Every time I believed in them, they came apart at the seams.

The primary reason for Detroit’s success in 2006 was its starting pitching. The Tigers’ staff should still be good this season, but asking the pitchers to replicate what they did last season would seem to be a bit much. American League Rookie of the Year Justin Verlander was nothing short of dominant during his first Major League campaign. However, he fatigued down the stretch. Verlander increased his workload by over seventy innings in 2006. That takes a toll on a young arm not conditioned to take that kind of beating. The Tigers are probably going to pay the piper this season with Verlander as the White Sox did last year for all of the extra innings that their starters threw in 2005. Justin Verlander probably will not be as effective. Neither will Nate Robertson, who should make a solid backend starter but pitched over his head in 2006, posting a sub 4.00 ERA. Kenny Rogers is another Detroit starter set for a decline. He will be under careful watch this season, meaning that he will not be able to place items onto his hand which could help him become more deceptive. Posting numbers under his career averages for a third straight year will be a tall order for Kenny. All three of these guys posted close to career years last season. It is not likely to happen again. Jeremy Bonderman, however, should get even better after a breakout 2006. His power arm will likely make him this year’s ace. Mike Maroth should serve as a dependable starter to round out the rotation as he comes off an injury-plagued 2006. 

Detroit’s lineup might not be in the same class as the Yankees, but there is still some punch. The addition of Gary Sheffield adds a disciplined slugger to a lineup in need of one. Sheffield is happy in his new environment with a contract extension for the time being. It will be at least a year before his selfish antics start to poison clubhouse morale. He joins Magglio Ordonez as the big hitters in the middle of the order. Placido Polanco should rebound from a relatively disappointing 2006 at the plate to become a productive table setter, while Carlos Guillen is the most underrated shortstop in the game in terms of offensive production. Sean Casey is meanwhile a quality role player. Detroit’s lineup is far from bulletproof, though. Craig Monroe and Brandon Inge will add some power, but they will probably decline fromcareer years in 2006. Pudge Rodriguez is in steep decline and probably getting no better with the bat for all the leadership and defensive prowess he brings to the table. Curtis Granderson is not a good leadoff hitter at all. He has no discipline and does not properly utilize his speed to cause trouble on the basepaths.

The Tigers have an above average but not elite bullpen. The setup corps of Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya is terrific. A big problem will be replacing Jamie Walker. The Central has some big-time lefty hitters in Morneau, Hafner, and Thome. The Tigers need to hope that converted starter, Wilfredo Ledezma is up to the task or else they could find themselves on the wrong end of late game heroics. Todd Jones is an adequate closer, but he is eminently hittable in the Borowski mold. He gets the job done more than he does not, but nobody would ever feel safe betting their life on him getting through the ninth unscathed. Jose Mesa is a wild card for this bullpen. He can add some depth, but age and returns to American League and pennant races make that seem unlikely. 

The Tigers are an above average team. It would be surprising if they were not in contention. However, they have a lot working against them. They are going to need to have guys repeat monster years that seem out of context. They have something else working against them. This year they will be the hunted because they are the American League Champions. Last season the Tigers played well early. Then they struggled down the stretch once people believed in them as a contender. When most counted them out during the American League postseason, they thrived only to fail again in the World Series when they were favored. The point is that this team has not handled success or the pressure of being the favorite well. Will they be able to have the same kind of success when everybody will be up to play them? It will take a much greater level of focus and intensity to match last season’s output. The second year is always tougher to navigate, especially with an inexperienced team. They tend to forget all the work that went into making them successful the year before and assume that they will win by showing up. The Tigers could easily fall into this trap because there is still a lot of inexperience on the roster. Pudge Rodriguez and Sean Casey can only do so much in terms of leadership. Asking for things to fall so perfectly for a second straight year seems like too much.

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