Coztanza's Commentary

Wednesday, March 28, 2007
4:06:00 PM EDT
     4. Baltimore Orioles

Being an O’s fan must be a miserable experience. The team spends, spends, and then spends some more every offseason but never seems to get any better. At least one thing has changed this year, though. Peter Angelos did not break the bank bringing in free agents. The Orioles focused on their bullpen, surrounding incumbent closer Chris Ray with Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, and Denys Baez. The O’s also took a flier on Scott Williamson, a guy who will pay huge dividends if he can stay healthy for once in his career. With that, Baltimore became the owner of one of the game’s deepest bullpens, giving Sam Perlazzo a number of bullets with which to turn late in games. The problem for the Orioles is everything else.

The Orioles’ offense lacks punch. There are some good hitters like the emerging Nick Markakis and the always dangerous Miguel Tejada. Ramon Hernandez is a very good offensive catcher, and Jay Gibbons and Aubrey Huff are decent hitters. However, relative to the other teams in the division, this lineup does not have much firepower. Brian Roberts reverted to pedestrian form in 2006. Melvin Mora at age 35 has headed downhill in a hurry as has Kevin Millar. Corey Patterson simply never gets on base, which is a shame considering the damage his speed could do on the bases. 

The picture does not get any brighter when considering Baltimore’s rotation. Erik Bedard gives Baltimore a legitimate ace. Daniel Cabrera has all the potential in the world behind Bedard, but he appears to be heading on one of those frustrating career paths as a guy who never could put it all together. Adam Loewen has promise, but he is still green. He will have to endure growing pains before he learns how to effectively pitch in the AL East. Jaret Wright proved with the Yankees that he is a solid backend starter last season and will be reunited with Leo Mazzone, the pitching coach with which he had the most success of his career. However, he is not dominant enough to carry a rotation or go deep into games even when he does pitch well. Baltimore signed Steve Trachsel to replace the injured Kris Benson, and that is a recipe for disaster. Ignore Traschel’s fifteen wins last season. They were the product of great run support. He almost posted a 5.00 ERA in the National League. Imagine the fluctuation that will come with a move to a hitter friendly park in the American League East. Baltimore’s rotation will again be its downfall.

There is a scenario where the O’s can contend. Mazzone is the best pitching coach in the game. If he can finally help Cabrera put the puzzle together, and Loewen matures ahead of schedule, the Orioles will have a tough rotation when one factors in Bedard and Wright. Basically they need Loewen and Cabrera to become this year’s Bonderman and Verlander. Then Angelos will certainly not be afraid to open his wallet at the deadline to beef up the offense. The much more likely scenario, though, is that Baltimore battles Tampa Bay to stay out of the cellar than New York, Boston, and Toronto for the division. 

5. Tampa Bay Devil Rays

The good news for the Rays is that things are not getting worse. The bad news is that they are not getting better by much. Tampa Bay will not be as abysmal offensively as it was last season. The team has quality big league hitters in Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli. Akinori Iwamura, a Japanese import, carries a nice stick of his own as well as a steller glove at third base. Ty Wigginton is a decent hitter. Dioner Navarro and B.J. Upton should get better with another year under their respective belts, and Delmon Young will make an immediate impact as long as he hits baseballs with his bat instead of umpires. (Sorry for the cheap joke.) The Rays are going to score runs because they have guys who hit a lot of homers and steal a lot of bases. The problem is that while they make the most of their chances in this way, too many of their youngsters are too undisciplined with the bat to get on base often, which means that while the offense will be better, it still will not be great. There will be a lot of developing talent in Tampa Bay’s stacked farm system and on the Major League level. Before long, this offense should be pretty potent. 

Pitching is even more of an issue in Tampa Bay. The Rays have a bona fide young ace in Scott Kazmir. There is absolutely nothing behind him. There might not be another quality pitcher on the roster. James Shields has a chance to become a quality pitcher one day, but that day is not today. Thesame can be said for J.P. Howell. Mediocre journeymen Jae Seo and Casey Fossum serve as warm bodies to fill out the rotation. The bullpen is in even more shambles. Seth McClung will be the closer. The Rays have quality youngsters, but they are still a few years away from making a mark on the Major League level. Their hitting is not good enough to overcome such bad pitching. Beating the Orioles for fourth place will be a major accomplishment.

Written by georgecoztanza Blog about this entry |  Add to del.icio.us |  digg this

This entry has 0 comments: (Add your own)