Coztanza's Commentary

Wednesday, March 28, 2007
4:08:00 PM EDT

1. New York Yankees

The Yankees have won their division in each of the past nine seasons. They have to be the favored to extend that streak to a decade in 2007. The biggest reason is their offense. No team in baseball has a deeper lineup. The anticipated first base platoon of Doug Mientkiewicz and either Josh Phelps or Andy Phillips is the only spot that can even be considered a remotely easy out. If Mientkiewicz posts something close to his .359 career on base percentage, that would give the team excellent production from the ninth best hitter in a lineup. What was an extremely productive offensive unit last season figures to get only better with walk machine Bobby Abreu in the mix from the beginning of the season and Hideki Matsui returning fully healed from the broken wrist that cost him most of 2006. Making Jason Giambi the full-time DH will keep him fresh and less likely to succumb to injury, and using Melky Cabrera as a quasi-regular supersub in the outfield will have the same effect on the aging trio of Abreu, Matsui, and Johnny Damon. Alex Rodriguez is in a contract season, which means he will be poised to prove his naysayers wrong and put together a big year. Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano cannot be expected to put up the same numbers they did last season, but they still should post elite numbers for their positions. New York’s lineup will not get itself out. It will wear pitchers down, take walks, and hammer the ball once it gets pitches to hit. This lineup could score 1,000 runs if everybody stays healthy. It gives them a chance to win every game.

The Yanks gave their rotation an overhaul in the offseason. Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina are back to anchor it. After that, the Yanks sent the cantankerous and over the hill Randy Johnson packing and brought back Andy Pettitte, who was one of the best pitchers in the second half of 2006 after a dominant 2005 campaign. Unlike most recently acquired hurlers, the Yankees will not have to worry about Pettitte proving that he can pitch in New York. He already did so in his first stint with the team. Pettitte embraces the pressure that comes with being a Yankee. He gives the Yanks a terrific top trio. At the end of the rotation, Carl Pavano and Kei Igawa are question marks, Pavano’s ability to stay healthy and Igawa’s ability to adjust to the Majors being the biggest concerns. However, should either falter, New York has plenty in reserve backing them up. Brian Cashman has done a brilliant job in the past two seasons restocking his farm system with Major League caliber arms. Darrell Rasner, Jeff Karstens, Humberto Sanchez, Tyler Clippard, and Ross Ohlendorf all could potentially see time in New York this season. The Yanks also have a prospect in Phillip Hughes who most observers feel would be a well above average Major Leaguer right now. The team will start him in AAA to limit his innings early in the year, but he should see action in the show and keep a rotation spot later in the season. The Yankees at this point have a great shot at signing Roger Clemens as well. There are some concerns about Pettitte’s balky elbow and Mussina’s age, but again there are guys who can fill in and do an adequate job. This influx of talent also gives the teams plenty of trading chips with which to acquire a veteran before the deadline. With this offense, all the Yankees will need is adequate to make the postseason. The big horses are for October, when runs will not be so easy to come by, facing top pitching. 

New York is also going to have a deep bullpen to hold the opposition down in close games. Mariano Rivera, the greatest closer ever, is the anchor. An under the radar acquisition was Luis Vizcaino, who came over in the Randy Johnson deal. Vizcaino is a reliable short guy in late innings who has a lot of success against lefties. He will help take some of the load off Kyle Farnsworth and Scott Proctor, who is coming off a breakout year where he finally discovered that sacrificing some velocity for the sake of movement is what will make for an effective pitcher. Ron Villone and Mike Myers give the team a pair of reliable veteran lefty relievers. New York also has a plethora of young arms to call on if needed in Brian Bruney, Chris Britton, T.J. Beam, J. Brent Cox, Jose Veras, and even Sean Henn and Colter Bean if necessary. These pitchers all could make a dent in New York this season. The Yankees have finally committed to making their roster younger, deeper, and more flexible than at any time since 2002. That is bad news for the rest of a division that has had enough trouble with this team.

2. Boston Red Sox
   

After months of searching, the Red Sox have found their closer. It is the exact same guy as the old closer. Fans from Beantown should be ecstatic that Jonathan Papelbon is back in the role in which he thrived last season. Papelbon spent his summer making sure that the Bosox did not give away games that they had as well as any reliever in the Majors. The plan was for him to move to the rotation in 2007, but the reality is that he is more valuable in a very thin bullpen. If he was not closing games, Boston would have to choose from the likes of Mike Timlin, Brandon Donnelly, and Joel Pineiro. That would have led to a lot of ninth inning losses. Papelbon’s presence takes Boston’s bullpen from abysmal to simply below average. He allows everybody else to slide back into a spot where they are slightly less overmatched and gives Terry Francona at least one guy he can count on in his relief corps. It is tough to figure why Boston made the move in the first place. Papelbon was so valuable for them in that role in 2006, and his lack of a reliable off speed or breaking pitch meant that he probably would not have been a frontline starter. His best pitch, the fastball, also would not have been as effective since he would have to pace himself during games, instead of putting every bit of effort he had into every pitch, which he does as a closer since he only has to throw one inning per game. Relief pitchers can get away with relying purely on a fastball and a splitter since hitters only see them once per game and have to adjust from the style of the previous pitcher. As a starter, that will not work because hitters can adjust between at bats with the previous at bat being a valuable reference point. Papelbon probably would have been rotation worthy, but he would not have been nearly as effective as he has been out of the bullpen.

Boston’s rotation is heralded as elite upon the addition of Daisuke Matsuzaka. The reality is that it is as hit or miss as could possibly be. Matsuzaka has to adjust to an entirely new league of hitters. Curt Schilling is old and came into camp out of shape and overweight. Those are two factors frighteningly suggesting that an injury is possible. Josh Beckett has all the potential in the world to become an ace. The problem is that has been true for his entire career, and outside of a stretch for a few months in 2003, he has yet to deliver on that promise. The back of the rotation with Tim Wakefield and Jon Lester should be solid, assuming that Lester will be ready to go once the team gets out of April and actually needs a fifth starter and is fully recovered from cancer. Lester’s presence is another factor in showing why Papelbon as closer makes sense. Lester has proven himself to be an adequate rotation guy. If Papelbon was starting, the Sox would have a massive hole at closer, and Lester would be either serving long relief duty or pitching in AAA. At any rate, this rotation is the textbook definition of hit or miss. No amount of success or failure would be surprising. 

The Sox will be led offensively as always by Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz. Boston spent its offseason seemingly bolstering its lineup by adding J.D. Drew and Julio Lugo. Both signed massive contracts worth more than either was worth. This epitomizes the puzzling nature of Boston’s recent front office moves. In the past, they have made moves that have not worked out, but at least the logic was evident. They did not want to overpay Johnny Damon so they got Coco Crisp, a younger, cheaper player with a lot of potential. They traded for Josh Beckett, a former World Series MVP who had a history of beating the Yankees and was still years away from free agency. The recent moves underscore the lack of common sense thinking emanating from the Red Sox’s front office recently. Drew is the kind of player that Boston fans will hate. He is not as good as his numbers would indicate. He is always hurt and is unwilling to play when banged up. He does not perform in big spots. He is not a good clubhouse influence. He does not play hard at all times. In tough times in 2003 and 2004, the Red Sox relied on their great chemistry in the clubhouse. They were a bunch of blue collar guys who liked and respected each other. This trust made them fearless, oblivious to pressure. Drew is the kind of guy who will put a hamper on that, the anti-Trot Nixon. He cares about his paycheck more than anything. The problem is that Boston has painted itself into a corner. Now the Sox fill holes by drastically overpaying big name players, leaving no money for glaring weaknesses like the bullpen. They need to be right because these contracts make their roster inflexible. The only way to correct errors is by digging themselves even deeper, eating bad deals, and signing new guys to even bigger deals. In the process, it brings a collection of mercenaries with no loyalty that will not go to battle with each other and falls apart when faced with adversity. The Yankees tried the same approach, and it failed. Only now have the Yanks reversed their ways because they have seen the error of this approach. Drew’s signing is a signal that the Sox are heading into that same chasm. The same goes for Lugo, a guy who became a productive player in the anonymity of Tampa Bay but was abysmal when traded to a contending Dodgers team last season. The Red Sox threw money at big names that they will have to stick with for the long haul before considering how they would fit in the clubhouse and how they would respond to Boston. In the past, they looked for bargains that fit the mold like Bill Mueller and the ultimate case, David Ortiz. They have just become another version of the Yankee teams whose spending habits made their fans cry foul. Drew will put up numbers when he stays healthy, but he will not have the same impact those numbers would suggest. Lugo probably will have a rough go of things in Beantown.

The real question is what Boston’s front office has been thinking recently. They traded away starting pitching depth in Bronson Arroyo last season to get a young slugger with potential in Wily Mo Pena. It was a move that was going to hurt short term. The hope was that he would develop into a slugger down the line. With the signing of Drew, Pena’s spot in the lineup has been blocked for at least two years. Why hurt the team in the short run and then never give the guy you sacrificed for a chance to develop? Behind the plate, Jason Varitek for all the leadership he provides in the clubhouse is on the decline. This would be a great time for Josh Bard to ease his way into at least a platoon role and take some of the load off Varitek’s shoulders. However, Bard is in San Diego now because the Red Sox panicked when he had trouble catching Tim Wakefield early last season. The team got rid of him because apparently an aging Doug Mirabelli was worth it and was the only available catcher capable of catching a knuckleball. They also gave up on Bard’s ability to do so too early. They played hard ball when Johnny Damon wanted a new contract but threw loads of money at Drew. Damon embodied the fearless nature of those Sox teams, was a great clubhouse presence leading to that great chemistry that helped the team, and gave everything he had on the field. Why let a fan favorite go to an archrival and break your fans’ hearts only to give Drew more money a year later? These moves go against everything the Red Sox said they were about. They used to be about sound financial decision making, keeping an eye on the future, and finding the right players, not necessarily the biggest names. There were a few times they forgot this along the way, like in 2003 when the Sox got desperate at the deadline, panicked, and surrendered 2006 NL Batting Champion Freddy Sanchez, who could be playing shortstop for a much cheaper price than Lugo, and Mike Gonzalez, who could help fortify that bullpen, for Jeff Suppan and Scott Sauerbeck, but those moves were the exception to the rule. The Red Sox have gotten very short sighted and impulsive in their acquisitions. 

At any rate, Dustin Pedroia should be an above average starter as a rookie at second base. Mike Lowell will add punch to the offense at third along with stellar defense. Kevin Youkilis will keep the offense moving with his excellent eye. The catching position will be a weakness with Varitek and Mirabelli in decline. Coco Crisp should bounce back after a rough first year in Boston. He is a talented player. Boston is going to have an above average offense. It is not as deep or dynamic as the Yankees’ lineup, but they do have good support for the two big guns.

The bullpen is going to need two guys to step up for them. The first is Craig Hansen. The highly touted St. John’s product needs to step up this season and finally make good on the potential he has. Hansen has the stuff to become an excellent closer. All that the Sox need is for him to become a bridge to Papelbon. Boston also needs Joel Pineiro to become a seventh inning guy. He is a reclamation project. Pineiro struggled as a starter for Seattle, but he has terrific stuff. He could shine in a relief role where he only has to face hitters once per game. If both these guys fill their respective roles and Boston leaves Papelbon where he belongs, an aging and declining Mike Timlin and Brandon Donnelly can take on the reduced roles they belong in, and the Sox will have a top flight bullpen. If not, this team is going to give away a lot of games in the seventh and eighth innings.

The Sox have a ton of question marks. There is enough talent on the roster for them to leapfrog Toronto in the division and win the Wild Card as they have in three of the past four seasons. Last season’s team was hampered by an ungodly amount of injuries which led to its downfall more than anything else. Matsuzaka has enough above average pitches that he should thrive in America. Schilling is a major injury concern. It would not be surprising to see him end up on the DL multiple times. Beckett has to prove that he will do the job before anybody can place trust in him. The same goes for Hansen and Pineiro. Lugo is probably going to struggle like Edgar Renteria. Drew will help bolster the offense when he is in the lineup but probably will miss time. Crisp has the talent to show the Red Sox what they thought they were getting. These are my takes on how these questions will be answered. They will need more of these to go right than wrong because there is nobody adequate behind these guys. I think enough will go right for Boston to be a good team, but there are too many issues to have them beating the Yankees. Their lack of cohesion and depth will come back to bite them in the postseason. 

3. Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays made a splash once again this offseason by giving Frank Thomas a two year deal, luring the Big Hurt from Oakland. Thomas bounced back from injury in a big way last season, cranking thirty-nine homers en route to leading the A’s to an AL West title. He will join Troy Glaus and Vernon Wells in the middle of a power-packed Toronto lineup. Alex Rios, Lyle Overbay, Reed Johnson, and the underrated Greg Zaun are all above average hitters in this deep lineup, and highly-touted Adam Lind could crack the lineup at some point this season. Toronto will more than adequately be able to make up for the losses of Frank Catalonotto and Bengie Molina. With all these above average hitters, Toronto is going to score runs. 

The problem is going to be pitching. The Jays have Roy Halladay at the top, a pitcher more effective than anybody not named Santana. Things get dicey from that point. A.J. Burnett is very highly regarded, but he is perennially inconsistent and always good for a few trips to the DL per year. After Burnett there is Gustavo Chacin, a pitcher hampered by elbow injuries in 2006. Even if he is able to pitch, it is unclear whether he will be fully recovered from his issues. Even if the top three are effective, the last two slots in Toronto’s rotation could not be weaker. They will need to hope that some combination of John Thompson, Tomo Ohka, and Victor Zambrano puts aside past injury and effectiveness issues. None of the three are very good, and they will get sixty percent of the starts minimum unless the Jays call up David McGowan and Shaun Marcum, neither of whom is ready to take on the AL East. Toronto is badly going to miss the stability that Ted Lilly brought to the middle of the rotation, although its tough to blame them for not matching the outrageous contract the Cubs gave him.

Toronto is going to have to win a lot of high-scoring games. On paper, their bullpen appears to be above average. B.J. Ryan is one of the game’s best closers. Behind him, Toronto lost a very effective reliever, Justin Speier, to the Angels, but Jason Frasor and Brandon League both should be reliable in late inning roles. Neither will likely be as productive as Speier, but a lot of teams will do worse. The Blue Jays have a plethora of other young arms to choose from to fill out their pitching staff. They should be able to find some mix given the options. 

Toronto will be able to score with just about anybody. Their bullpen should win them more games than they lose. All that their starters need to do is keep them in most games. Unfortunately for the Jays, that will be a lot to ask. Halladay virtually guarantees them a win every time he pitches. However, the back end is going to be abysmal. If any of the top three misses any time, the lack of depth is going to become even more glaring. John Gibbons also seems to do a good job alienating himself with his players as separate feuds with Shea Hillenbrand and Ted Lilly last season seem to indicate. There is a real danger that this team could tune him out the second things start to go south. Ultimately, though, the end of the rotation is going to cost too many games for this team to make the postseason.
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