Coztanza's Commentary

1. Oakland Athletics

Like their counterparts in the AL Central, many prognosticators think that the A’s have taken too much of a hit in the offseason to repeat as division champion. Oakland saw its best pitcher, Barry Zito, and best hitter, Frank Thomas, leave via free agency. However, the team should be able to replace the production that both offered and stay in the postseason mix.

Thomas posted MVP stats, but Oakland went a long way towards replacing him by signing Mike Piazza. Piazza proved last season in San Diego that he can still rake. He is still a middle of the order threat. His stats were skewed by the extreme pitchers’ park he called home. Serving as DH will only make him more productive as it will save him from the wear and tear of catching. He should come from off the radar like Thomas did last season to become Oakland’s best hitter. This is going to be his best season since 2002. While he will be extremely productive, asking Mike to do what Thomas did in 2006 would be a lot. However, Oakland is going to pick up production in other spots.

Eric Chavez had a horrid 2006 at the plate as he was hampered by nagging injuries. Given an offseason to heal, Chavez should be closer to the run producer he was in seasons past than to the offensive liability he was last year. Mark Ellis finished 2006 strongly, indicating his horrid start a season ago was a fluke. Nick Swisher, coming off a breakthrough 2006, has the tools to take his game to the next level this year and become an elite power threat. Bobby Crosby’s last two seasons have been plagued by injuries, but the ailments he has suffered are mostly freak things, not perennial. He should finally put together a healthy season and be something close to the player he was in 2004. Milton Bradley’s antics have hidden the offensive force he is, and Jason Kendall has a good eye at the plate at the top of the order. Losing Mark Kotsay will hurt the team defensively, but he has not been much of a hitter recently. Shannon Stewart will not be either, but Kotsay’s absence in the outfield will be lessened by Milton Bradley’s quality defense in center. Stewart’s presence means that the A’s will only suffer a major defensive downgrade at a corner spot.

Zito will be missed in the rotation, but Rich Harden should finally be healthy enough to pitch for an entire season. Harden has a bad past in terms of health, but like Crosby he has not suffered anything chronic. There is not Kerry Wood damage. Harden has just had some bad luck aside from an elbow ailment that came from bad mechanics he has since rectified. Rich Harden has the stuff to be better than Zito. With his talent, Harden could enter the air of Santana and Halladay in the American League. Behind him is Dan Haren, whose ceiling is not as high as Harden’s. He still has the stuff to become ace material. After a pair of runs through the American League, he should be primed for a breakout season. Joe Blanton is not as good as his 3.49 ERA in 2005 would indicate, but he also is not as bad as his 4.82 ERA in 2006. He should settle somewhere in between and act as an above average middle of the rotation guy. Esteban Loaiza is a solid backend starter. That leaves the fifth spot to Joe Kennedy. Kennedy has had an inconsistent career but always had the stuff to be a quality pitcher in the bigs. He appears primed to become Oakland’s latest unheralded scrap heap pickup. After a very effective season as a reliever, he should offer stability at the back of the rotation. Jason Windsor is a quality youngster who will be ready to step in and pitch well. He provides the A's with rotation depth. A bullpen anchored by Huston Street, Justin Duchschrer, Alan Embree, and Kiki Calero should help Oakland pull out a number of close games.

Billy Beane has again done a great job constructing the roster. His one problem is that his ego is often too big for his own good. Beane wants a manager that he can control. This prevents him from attaining baseball’s best. In game strategy is not the most important part of managing. Most decisions are defensible. A manager’s job is to run the clubhouse. He needs to find ways to motivate his team to play the best. He needs to make sure that things never get too high or low. He needs to make sure that his entire team is focused on the goal. He needs to have the respect of his players so that they will believe in themselves and their teammates. He needs to create the right atmosphere. When Oakland went to replace Ken Macha, they had that guy on their staff, longtime coach, Ron Washington. Beane went for Bob Geren instead and let Washington, a future star manager, go to a division rival. Beane wants to run the on field aspects of the team from the front office. He hired Geren to be a puppet. Beane was simply too worried about in game strategy. His teams have always struggled in critical spots. This is due at least in part to his inability to give his team a strong manager to rally the troops and keep them on task through the difficult times. The A’s are always going to have regular season success, but their general manager needs to get over his own ego trip and give his team a strong leader who might disagree with him on certain tactics, even if it means taking a backseat and letting the guy he hired to run the team do his job.

The A’s have consistently seen household names defect from their roster since the end of the 2001 season. Pundits always count them out the next year, but the team always responds. This year should be no different. A lot of guys underperformed for this team in 2006. Most should bounce back, more than making up for lost production. Oakland might not have great depth right now, but it is the most complete club in the AL West.

2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

This team needed to find an impact bat in the offseason to give Vladimir Guerrero some help. Names like Alex Rodriguez, Aramis Ramirez, Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, and Miguel Tejada surfaced. Things became more desperate when the team’s second best hitter, Juan Rivera, broke his leg in winter ball, which will cost him most of the season and could force him to sit out all of 2007. The team’s response was uninspiring. Bill Stoneman brought in Shea Hillenbrand, a decent power threat but hardly an elite middle of the order threat. He also dished out $50 million to Gary Matthews Jr. That is $50 million to a guy who posted by far his best year at age 32 in a contract year. That is $50 to a guy who had much better splits in a home park that is one of baseball’s top havens for hitters. That is $50 million to a guy whose 17 homers and 77 RBI’s were not even that impressive in the first place. If it was not for Gil Meche, this would be the worst contract of the offseason by far. This was before steroid speculation came out. Matthews is not going to do much of anything to help this offense. He will help defensively, but even centerfield defense is not worth that kind of money.

Offense is going to be what holds Los Angeles back again. Vladimir Guerrero is one of the five best players in the game, but one player can only do so much. Losing Rivera will hurt production a lot. The Angels will at least be better than they were last season. Howie Kendrick, Mike Napoli, and Casey Kotchman all will become above average hitters. The problem is that none of the three is ready to become an elite run producer. Kendrick and Kotchman especially should become very productive, while Napoli will turn into a solid hitter for a catcher. Kendrick is a natural hitter but not a big time power threat/run producer. People are simply putting unrealistic expectations on him this year to carry the club. He needs another year under his belt. Kotchman is a guy on whom too many have given up. The Angels asked too much from him in years past before he was ready. Last season’s disaster was due primarily to a bad case of mono. He still has the sweet stroke that allowed him to progress through the minors at a rapid pace. He has developed enough to finally deliver on his potential. The problem is that the Angels need him to immediately put up numbers he will reach in his prime. Los Angeles needs its role players to hit like superstars, which is not a great bet to make. They also have too many marginal hitters like Chone Figgins and Orlando Cabrera. Both guys bring unique skills to the table, but that is not what the team needs. Garrett Anderson is nowhere near the impact hitter he once was either. This team is not going to score enough.

The shame of the situation is that the Angels have arguably the deepest pitching staff in baseball. John Lackey has emerged as a frontline starter. Ervin Santana is a quality starter and will get better with another season under his belt. The same is true of Jered Weaver. Kelvim Escobar is a steady veteran presence, and Joe Saunders has progressed through the minors and should be an adequate starter. He is only holding the fort until Bartolo Colon returns at midseason from rotator cuff surgery. The Angels are in great shape because their pitching is good enough to survive without the 2005 AL Cy Young winner, but he is capable of greatly improving the staff if he can recover from his ailment. A deep bullpen has only gotten better with the addition of Justin Speier. If the Angels have a lead through six innings, Speier, Scot Shields, and Francisco Rodriguez virtually guarantee a win. Hector Carrasco is a solid backend bullpen pitcher and Darrin Oliver reemerged in 2006 as possibly baseball’s best long reliever.

The Angels are going to be in the mix through the entire season, carried by pitching. They have been too gun shy in the past about making blockbuster trades. The farm system is stocked with young chips. Unless Bill Stoneman brings in an impact bat at the deadline, the offense will not be good enough once again. Vladimir Guerrero can only do so much. Los Angeles should finish behind Oakland once again.

3. Texas Rangers

Since the late 1990’s, people have known the Rangers as a team that can hit with anybody but cannot consistently get hitters out. The same will likely hold true in 2007 but not to the degree it once did. Texas’ starting rotation is not going to remind anybody of the 1990’s Braves (aside from the presence of  Kevin Millwood), but it should at least be adequate, although the fifth spot is full of abysmal options like Kameron Loe and Jamey Wright. Kevin Millwood and Vincente Padilla are solid middle of the rotation starters. Both men have had big years in the past and pitched like frontline guys. Brandon McCarthy and Robinson Tejada have top of the rotation potential but are not likely ready to deliver on it. This rotation is essentially a crapshoot. If two or more pitchers maximize their talent this season, the rotation will be well above average, and Texas will contend for the postseason. If the top four pitch only adequately, the Rangers will have a solid rotation but not one ready to compete with Harden-Haren-Blanton or Lackey-Weaver-Santana in the division. The latter probably will be the case.

The Rangers’ bullpen should be a strength. Akinori Otsuka and Wes Littlejohn form a more than adequate one-two punch. Scott Feldman, C.J. Wilson, Ron Mahay, and Joaquim Benoit are all decent relievers to round out the ‘pen. Eric Gagne is a major wild card. If he can maintain relative health through much of the year, this bullpen will become elite. Gagne-Otsuka-Littlejohn would be a daunting trio for any offense to face in late inning situations. The problem is that Gagne has thrown fifteen innings in the past two years. There is no reason to expect that he will stay healthy. Signing him was worth the risk due to his high ceiling, but the chances of him delivering seem slim.

Offensively the Rangers will be very good. Mark Teixeira is one of the top all-around hitters in baseball. Ian Kinsler and Michael Young will be more productive than any duo of middle infielders not named Jeter and Cano. Hank Blalock is geared to bounce back from a rough season. A regime change always benefits a few players. Blalock will be one of those guys. Buck Showalter lost faith in Blalock once he struggled. Showalter is a good manager, but he gives up on players too quickly. The recovery of Francisco Cordero after a trade to Milwaukee would attest to that. Blalock seemed to take Buck’s lack of faith to heart. He has discussed openly how much more comfortable he is with Ron Washington in charge. He also has the game’s best hitting coach, Rudy Jaramillo, to help rework his swing. Blalock is poised to have a big year. Frank Catalonotto and Kenny Lofton will help Texas to have a solid offense in supporting roles. There are some weak points in the lineup. Anybody who thinks that Sammy Sosa is going to be an impact hitter is welcome to buy the Brooklyn Bridge from me. A hot Spring Training against rusty pitchers and minor leaguers does not mean a whole lot. Sammy will hit his 600th career homer this year, but a year away from the game typically does not help guys with deteriorated skills. Brad Wilkerson and Gerald Laird are not going to be very productive. The fact that Jon Daniels does not get more ridiculed for dealing a forty-forty guy in Alfonso Soriano for Wilkerson is one of life’s great mysteries. That was one of the worst trades of all-time. Anybody who knew anything about baseball could see that at the time. This is not a statement in hindsight. At any rate, Texas will lose a lot of production from the departed Rod Barajas, Carlos Lee, and Gary Matthews Jr. not that any of those guys was worth bringing back relative to price. However, that only means that the Rangers will have a less effective offense. It will still be pretty good.

The Rangers made a great hire when they named Ron Washington manager. Washington is a rising star of the profession. He will do a great getting through to his players and running the clubhouse. He will get everything he can from this team because the players will buy into his message. His problem is that the Rangers probably do not have the horses to compete with the top teams in his division. The pitching staff is pedestrian. Even with their offense, it would be a surprise to see the Rangers in October. They at least now have some young pitchers with potential. Making the postseason should be less of a pipedream in a few years. However, it is doubtful that Texas will win the World Series the year after firing Buck Showalter like the Yankees and the Diamondbacks did.

4. Seattle Mariners

It is going to be another long summer in the Pacific Northwest. The Mariners did little to improve upon a team that has finished in the cellar for three straight seasons. Their rotation is not going to be very good. Felix Hernandez should be one of the few bright spots. He is ready to have a breakout season with a solid defense backing the groundball pitcher. He should finish in the top ten of Cy Young voting. The problem is that there is no depth behind him. Miguel Batista and Jarrod Washburn would be backend starters on most teams. Jeff Weaver and Horacio Ramirez might not even be that in the American League. Weaver’s strong October led to him being drastically overpaid. The fact is that he was miserable last year, especially during the half season he spent with the Angels. Now he is back in the same division. After Hernandez, this rotation will be a major weakness.

The bullpen will be even worse. J.J. Putz is a terrific closer. However, the trade of Rafael Soriano cost the bullpen its only other reliable option. Chris Reitsma, Julio Mateo, and George Sherill make up a bullpen every bit as bad as the relief corps for the 1990’s Mariners teams that contended.

The lineup is even more pitiful. Raul Ibanez and Richie Sexson both provide power in the middle of the order, but there is nothing behind them. Both hitters also are aging and susceptible to decline. Giving up anything of value for Jose Vidro made no sense. Vidro is no longer productive as a hitter. Adrian Beltre continues to give the M’s as little bang for his massive contract as almost any player in baseball. Kenji Jojima is a good hitting catcher buthardly an impact bat. Jose Lopez and Jeremy Reed are both youngsters trying to develop into adequate offensive players. Jose Guillen is hardly an impact bat at this point. Yuniesky Betencourt is a very good defender but carries a weak bat. Ichiro might be the modern day Ty Cobb swinging the bat, but he can only do so much with such a weak supporting cast.

The Mariners are strong defensively. Betencourt and Beltre make up an excellent left side, and Seattle finally is making the most of Ichiro’s range by putting him in centerfield. However, it takes more than an ace, a closer, and good defense to make a good team. Seattle is below average on both offense and defense. This team needs a lot to go right to get into third place.

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• #1 Comment from vince4628 
  4/6/07 2:58 PM | Permalink

  hi george,
  you have came a long way in your writting, i  appreciate now that you got more involved in giving the ups and downs of teams, and players.