weather and business

Global warming not the problem....there is more evidence that we may be heading towards global cooling....

Read: Sunspot cycles may hold key to global warming, cooling  at 

http://www.leadertelegram.com/story-opinions.asp?id=BGMHH9IPD4Q

For an excellent scientific based reference concerning the global warming issue, see this:

http://www.globalwarmingheartland.org/Assets/PowerPoint/daleo.ppt

Some information on Al Gore's real motivation for pushing his global warming agenda:

http://www.canadafreepress.com/2007/cover031307.htm

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It appears that there has been a loophole that energy speculators have been taking advantage of since the Enron days.  It is described here:

http://www.closetheenronloophole.com/

Both the Senate and the House of Representatives voted recently to close the loophole.  I am wondering if there is a connection between this and the sharp price increases for gas that have been seen recently.  Coud the rise be a last-minute money-grab before the bill is finalized.  Of course, it needs to get signed by Bush. There is enough support that the bill will still pass if he does not sign it.  It would be very telling if he didn't, however. 

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Most of the global warming talk that we hear is politically motivated.  For a scientifically based discussion and information on global warming visit this web site:

www.icecap.us

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Forecasting tropical weather this summer seems to be more of art than science.   The computer models (including the GFS...the one that usually does well with tropical systems) have had a tough time forecasting hurricanes.

Example 1:  When Felix was a category 5 hurricane, the GFS model displayed it as 1006 mb.  This would equate to a weak tropical storm at best.

Example 2: Humberto was poorly modeled as a weak tropical storm (GFS) before it made landfall.  It is also very unusual for a storm to develop and become stronger like it did...being so close to the coast.  Both of these assumptions caught meteorologists off guard.

Hopefully, better luck with future storms.  Several models have been suggesting something in the Gulf of Mexico for the September 22 and 23 weekend.  Given the track record of recent storms, maybe we should wait and see.

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It will interesting to see what happens over the next week concerning a low pressure system off the southeast coast of the US.  There is relatively good agreement that this (about 500 miles east of Florida on September 4, 2007):

will drift eastward for the next couple off days, then drift back westerward towards the Carolina/Georgia coast by the weekend as the ridge over the southeast weakens and the ridge over the mid-Atlantic builds westward.  From that point, the system will move up the Eastern Seaboard and could affect eastern New England on Sunday and Monday.  The uncertainty is on how strong this system could be and its exact path and timing.   Also, will it become a tropical or a hybrid?  An earlier review of the model data today suggested it would be warm core...so it would be a tropical system.  You got to wonder about model data sometimes.  This last week the GFS model barely showed category 5 storm Felix as a weak tropical storm.

What will be more intriguing is if this system is named.  A name will give it more attention, more new stories, etc.  Especially since it could impact New York City.   At this time, there is a chance that this system's impact will be minimal for most of the Eastern Seaboard, since it may remain offshore and parallel the coast.   Interestingly, winter storms over the northeast are more of an impact than what will may see out of this storm. 

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I found this resource of information concerning weather and economics from NOAA.  It can be found at http://www.economics.noaa.gov/library/library.htm.

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Do a blog search on "tornado and Greensburg".  Look at all the politically related blogs that show up.  Real sad. 

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Interesting impact the storm of April 15 and 16 will have on the Northeast.  The wind alone should cause major problems for eastern New England down to the mid-Atlantic coast. The hardest part of this storm is the uncertainty concerning where the snow (especially the heaviest) will fall with this system.  The increase of uncertainty is due to the multitude of variables that may affect whether snow happens or not.  For instance, where the snow/rain line appears to be, the temps aloft are near 32 for a good mile up into the atmosphere.  A little cooler or warmer could affect the placement of snow.  The intensity of the precip could also affect the occurrence of the snow.  In addition, higher levels may see more snow than lower levels, because of the ambient temperatures that occur.  By the way, the expectation that the temperature is near freezing for the lower portions of the atmosphere suggests that the any snow that occurs will be heavy (especially where the rain/snow line is).   Even worse...after the worse of the snow occurs, the winds pick up.  This could cause major power problems.  Following the snow...lots of rain which cause additional problems.  Even those that stay all rain could see flooding issues.

What is interesting is seeing the uncertainty in the snow forecasting showing up in the forecasts around the Northeast US.   While forecasts are generally getting better, there is still plenty of room for improvement. It seems that a lot of forecasters are riding the fence on this storm. 

From a business angle, it is clear that lots of businesses will be impacted on Sunday and Monday.  In some cases, some of that business shifted to Saturday (grocery stores), while others will be delayed or not happen at all.  An interesting article from the Federal Reserve Board concerning weather and its impact on business can be found here: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2000/200008/200008pap.pdf

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One of the newest things on the web that may impact a lot of businesses is a process called "mashup".  This process lets websites combine information from many different websites to make a new site with a useful combination of information.   Several weather related websites are already doing this....  http://www.met.utah.edu/mesowest/  and  http://www.weatherbonk.com/.  Both sites use Google maps, mesonet data and current radar information.  In addition, weatherbonk.com will let the user select webcams.  The Weather Channel has a beta site that uses maps from Microsoft and current radar and/or satellite information.  It is at http://www.weather.com/wxgold/modules/goldflashmap.html?from=wxcenter_news .

For more info on mashups go here:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mashup_%28web_application_hybrid%29 .

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Over the past year I have discovered a business process that helps businesses deal with uncertainty and the macro-environment.  Many aspects of the macro-environment can impact businesses, but they are totally out of the control of an organization.  Macro-enviroment impacts include: Political, Economic/enviromental/ecological, Social and Technological.  The process to help deal with uncertainty and the macro-environment is called scenario planning.  In general, this process helps organizations define plausible futures that the business/organization may face during a set period of time.  Using scenario planning, an organization defines the main points of uncertainty that may impact the group and then it develops plausible scenarios.  This process appears to be very beneficial to those that have used it. 

It seems like it could be useful for weather impacts. One possible weather impact use would be when determining an impact a hurricane could have on the community.  One axis of uncertainty would be hurricane or no hurricane, while the other axis would be the social response to danger (stay put or leave). 

In the long run, however, the process would have better application for businesses trying to determine how the macro-environment will impact their business during a set period of time.  If you are interested in scenario planning visit this blog: http://cartegic.typepad.com/.

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