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Internet Brownouts?
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Wednesday, November 21, 2007
10:35:00 AM EST
Hearing Code Monkey -- Jonathan Coulton
Here's a thought for you: Some folks are suggesting the bandwidth capacity of the entire Internet might be reached in two years:
Despite all the talk about the Internet's infinite possibilities, a study by U.S. firm Nemertes Research found that projected increases in Internet traffic are poised to eclipse the capacity of the Web's broadband access infrastructure – essentially the points where users "plug in" to the Internet via cable, phone or fibre optic lines –as early as 2010.
The study predicts that, in the absence of billions worth of new investments, Internet users will begin to notice a marked degradation in their online experiences within three to five years as bandwidth-heavy applications such as VoIP (Voice-over Internet Protocol), video-on-demand and various file-sharing schemes become more popular among individuals and corporations alike.
That could take the form of Web pages that take longer to load, interruptions in videos that are downloaded or streamed and stalled e-commerce transactions, said Mike Jude, a senior analyst with Nemertes. "If we don't do anything, we're going to start looking like the dying days of dial-up access," he said.
Call me a jerk, but I think there's something just a little amusing at an Internet so overloaded that people once again have to start thinking about it as a scarce resource. It'd be like 1996 again, when you had to hope your 28.8 modem was up to the task. Maybe then web sites would be slightly more elegantly designed.
However, I expect this problem will get solved before then. People need their YouTube and TMZ.com and iTunes and what have you. And they will kill to get it. Kill, do you hear me.
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10:35:00 AM EST
Hearing Code Monkey -- Jonathan Coulton
Internet Brownouts?
Here's a thought for you: Some folks are suggesting the bandwidth capacity of the entire Internet might be reached in two years:
Despite all the talk about the Internet's infinite possibilities, a study by U.S. firm Nemertes Research found that projected increases in Internet traffic are poised to eclipse the capacity of the Web's broadband access infrastructure – essentially the points where users "plug in" to the Internet via cable, phone or fibre optic lines –as early as 2010.
The study predicts that, in the absence of billions worth of new investments, Internet users will begin to notice a marked degradation in their online experiences within three to five years as bandwidth-heavy applications such as VoIP (Voice-over Internet Protocol), video-on-demand and various file-sharing schemes become more popular among individuals and corporations alike.
That could take the form of Web pages that take longer to load, interruptions in videos that are downloaded or streamed and stalled e-commerce transactions, said Mike Jude, a senior analyst with Nemertes. "If we don't do anything, we're going to start looking like the dying days of dial-up access," he said.
Call me a jerk, but I think there's something just a little amusing at an Internet so overloaded that people once again have to start thinking about it as a scarce resource. It'd be like 1996 again, when you had to hope your 28.8 modem was up to the task. Maybe then web sites would be slightly more elegantly designed.
However, I expect this problem will get solved before then. People need their YouTube and TMZ.com and iTunes and what have you. And they will kill to get it. Kill, do you hear me.
Written by johnmscalzi Blog about this entry |
Add to del.icio.us | digg this
This entry has 3 comments: (Add your own)
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I have an old computer that's never been used but once (it was used before I got it naturally) but when I looked at what it had it said the modem was 28.8 I thought huh? I was shocked. Guess I came along after that became a dinosaur. At least now I know it's for real... thought it was some sort of screw up! lol.
I know of people that would jump off a building if they didn't have the internet!
:)
Promise -
Funny-I clicked your tag and there is no tag for that...ooooooooo-k
11/21/07 12:12 PM