US Election 2004

In comments, nasrolla asked an important question, “What will either Bush or Kerry do for Iran?”

Last spring, I had the opportunity to ask my Congressman about Iran and from his response it looked like continued containment (25 years of failure and still counting) would be the policy.  At this point, Bush has put the ball is in the hands of the State Department and our allied.  However, I would expect that if they do not have tangible results soon that Bush will start preparing us for war with Iran.  There are two dangers that suggest violent action sooner rather than later: (1) continued Iranian development of nuclear weapons, and (2) the growing risk of civil war after the mullahs cut off the path to peaceful political change.

Ironically, some Democrats have been faulted Bush for confronting Iraq instead of Iran and North Korea, although they have not advocated invading those countries.  If Kerry is elected today, expect a return to the détente policies of the Clinton Administration towards Iran.  Further, in the debates, Kerry has stated that he would offer nuclear fuel to Iran in exchange for guarantees of peaceful use.  This deal sounds similar to the deal broken by the North Koreans.  However, as the eminent threat to the mullahs is internal and not the US, I would expect for Iran to start to breakdown into civil war even if Kerry is elected.

Some have suggested that Kerry’s Iran policy is guided by Iranian political contributions; however, I find this highly unlikely.  His corruption is not financial; it is moral corruption as he always sides with our enemies, especially in times of war.

Note:  In predicting a civil war in Iran, I am not suggesting an overthrow of the mullahs.  There will be no Velvet Revolution.  Iran’s theocracy has demonstrated that it will kill unarmed opponents to retain power.  Absent external support via supplies, the Iranians who seek freedom are unlikely to be able to overthrow their bloody rulers.

Wizard of Iran (7/8/2003)

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• #1 Comment from mw1855 
  11/3/04 7:19 AM | Permalink

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