US Election 2004

Looking at the net changes in popular votes in this election, it looks like Kerry’s get out the vote (GOTV) effort was a relative failure despite the record turn out.  The following observations are the groundwork for a hypothesis that would have to be tested with more detailed survey work.

Looking at the net change in vote cast between the 2000 and 2004 elections, there was an overall increase of 10%.  However, Bush’s net increase was 18%, or 85% of the overall increase.  That does not leave much for Kerry.

On its face, using Gore’s total from 2000 as a baseline, the Democratic candidate increased his vote by 10%.  But I do not think that was all new voters, because Nadar lost 86% (almost 2.5 million votes) compare to his 2000 performance. 

If those voters who left Nadar did cast ballots in 2004 and did so for Kerry, as was the Democrats' strategy, then that would account for about half of Kerry’s net gain.  Further, Kerry’s victories in four states may have been heavily dependent upon these Nadar switchers (New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon, and Wisconsin).

As the Democrats argue about whether to moderate or radicalize, these Nadar switchers may break away from the Democrats again.  It is likely that there will develop a marginalized orthodox New Left party; the question is whether it will be the Democrats or a third party like the Greens.

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