Lee Jay Walker Dip BA MA

The collapse of the Soviet Union led to many tensions within the former Soviet Union and since then you have had many frozen conflicts.  This certainly applies to the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan.  The outcome of this brutal civil war meant many deaths on both sides, however, Christian Armenians overcame their numerical weakness and managed to control this region.  However, today, with increasing energy wealth, the nation of Azerbaijan may be thinking about starting a fresh war with Christian Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh?

Before concentrating on this, it is important to look at the regional balance and possible dangers for Azerbaijan.  Therefore, if we look at the region we see many frozen conflicts or current tensions in Abkhazia (Georgia), South Ossetia (Georgia), Chechnya (Russian Federation), Daghestan (Russian Federation), Ingushetia (Russian Federation), and the Kurdish issue in eastern Turkey.  Some of these faultlines are based on religion or ethnicity, or over the control of resources.  However, with a heavy mix of ethnicity and two major faiths, Orthodox Christianity and Islam, then it is a real melting pot.

Another dimension is the Russian Federation supporting Armenia and Turkey, a member of NATO, being pro-Azerbaijan.  Also, the American dimension is complex and sadly based on energy issues.  After all, the Armenian lobby is very strong and potent within parts of America and the government is sympathetic.  But geopolitics and realism still controls, therefore, the USA is using Azerbaijan in order to counter the influence of both the Russian Federation and Iran.  This applies to energy routes which bypass both the Russian Federation and Iran.

Also, if we look back into history, then we must remember the 1915 genocide of more than 1.5 million Armenian Christians and Assyrian Christians by Islamic and nationalistic Turkey.  This genocide in time would galvanize many Armenian Christians when a new war erupted in the 1990s with Azerbaijan because the fear of defeat and massacre was real.  So past history haunts this region and this certainly applies to Nagorno-Karabakh.

If we now look to modern times, then clearly it would appear that the economic gap between potential military spending is vastly different and this certainly favours Azerbaijan.  The one main comfort at the moment for Armenia is the support they get from the Russian Federation and Iran.  For Iran the situation is complex because most Azeri people are Shia Muslim, like Iran, however, Iran fears a greater Azerbaijan because of the sizeable Azeri community in northern Iran.  So outwardly, Iran talks about Islamic unity, but covertly, they do not want to see Armenia weakened.

However, increasing Azeri purchases of military equipment is alarming many Armenians.  Also, you have many divisions within Armenia with regards to politics.  Therefore, the current leaders of Azerbaijan "can smell blood" and maybe they will try to re-start this frozen conflict which erupts from time to time?  If so, we could see a real clash of titans because the Russian Federation and Turkey have major self interests and NATO would be in a flux.  So will the new leaders of Azerbaijan re-start a fresh war over Nagorno-Karabakh or can a deal be made based on autonomy?

Lee Jay Walker Dip BA MA