The Sportz Guru Report

Week 11 is here, and so are my picks...Before I begin, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention an anniversary being recognized today. 20 years ago today was the night L.T. sacked Joe Theisman, breaking both bones in his right leg, ending his career. I was 12 years old, and was watching the game, and my stomach still gets queezy thinking about it. Watching how frantic L.T. was waving to the sideline for the training staff to rush out to the field. Seeing the blood stains on the sock(they don't show that anymore). A horrific injury that ended the career of a Super Bowl winning QB. Joe has recovered completey, doing an excellent job on ESPN, but I'll always remember that night like it was yesterday. 20 years...hard to believe.

After a sizzling Week 9, I came back to earth a little last week, actually going under .500 against the spread. Not to be swayed, however, I am back on the horse and ready to re-establish myself. Without further ado...

Straight -- Last Week: 9-5 Season: 96-46 .676
VS. the Spread -- Last Week: 6-8 Season: 74-68 .521

Arizona @ St. Louis -9 1/2 - After being beaten the second time this season by the Seahawks last week, the Rams are playing for their playoff lives. Coaches are getting into fist-fights with each other, the players are unhappy, and the fans are restless. The perfect medicine for what ails the Rams flies into town this Sunday, The Cardinals. This was supposed to be the year the Red Birds took a step towards the playoffs. Instead, they are taking steps towards Matt Leinart. I like the Rams in this one to keep their playoff hopes alive, winning big.

Rams 34-20

Detroit +8 1/2 @ Dallas - This game has me really intrigued. After an emotional week for the Cowboys and their Coach, Bill Parcells, and a huge come from behind win in Philly, the 'Boys come home to take on the Lions. The 'Boys also have the Broncos coming into town on Turkey Day and have to be peeking ahead just a little bit. Though I am tempted big time to take the Lions to win outright, the points are enough and the Cowboyswake up just in time to pull it out.

Cowboys 21-17

Jacksonville @ Tennessee +4 1/2 - I am still not sold on the Jags, and despite a cakewalk schedule the rest of the way see them struggling in some winnable games. This is one of them. Jeff Fisher always has his Titans team playing hard, and they will play hard in this one after having two weeks to prepare. A former divisional rivalry, these teams don't like each other too much. Take the points, and think hard about the Jags losing this one. In the end, Matt Jones is the difference and the Cats slip by.

Jags 24-20

Carolina -2 1/2 @ Chicago - This weekend has been coined "Show-Me" Sunday since there are a few games with teams who think they are pretty good and are getting a true test this weekend. The Bears are one of these teams, and they will get a BIG test by the Panthers. Remember, this is a Bears team that has lost to Cleveland and got thoroughly beaten by another "Show me" team, Cincinnati. Both teams have great defenses, but unlike the Bears, the Panthers also have a very good offense. A close game at half-time, the Panthers pull away in the end. Give the points...

Panthers 28-17

Miami @ Cleveland -2 1/2 - Is it me or do the Browns play horrible teams every week. Ok, I know, they have to play the Steelers twice a year, but that is the problem with being a horrible team every year...You play horrible teams every year. Anyhow, since they HAVE to play it, I have to pick it. It has finally gotten cold and feels like football weather in Cleveland, and I think this is the week the Browns finally realize the best playmaker they have is Braylon Edwards and start getting him the "Damn Ball". I like the Browns by a field goal late.

Browns 17-14

Oakland +6 1/2 @ Washington - Both teams are on 2game losing streaks, both teams feel lousy about themselves. I think the Redskins are showing their true colors. LaVar Arrington proved why he doesn't deserve to be on the field.  If he simply fills the hole, instead of going for the SportsCenter highlight dive, the Redskins are 6-3 today. Well, he didn't and they're not. Oakland has more talent than Washington, especially on offense, but D.C. is a tough place to play. The spread is way to big, but the 'Skins pull it out.

Redskins 20-17

Tampa Bay +6 1/2 @ Atlanta - Tampa owns the Falcons. Since re-alignment, the Bucs are 6-2 against the Falcons. They have split the last 4 however, and after a horrible showing in the dome against the Pack last week, the Falcons need this game. Another "Show Me" game, the winner will have an upper hand in the wildcard race behind the Panthers in that division. The Bucs need to get their running game back in sync, and Chris Simms grew up as a NFL QB against the Redskins. Cadillac has filled up and is ready for the 2nd half and the Falcons won't be able to run against TB. Take the points and the Bucs to win outright.

Buccaneers 24-20

New Orleans +10 1/2 @ New England - After a killer schedule through the first 9 weeks of the season, the Patriots get a break. The Saints are a mess and have crumbled under the pressure of not really having a home. To think the Pats are 11 points better than anyone, though, is hard to fathom with all the injuries on that defense. I like the Pats, but only by 10.

Patriots 24-14

Philadelphia @ NY Giants -3 1/2 - For 56 minutes on Monday night, it looked as if the Eagles had come together in the aftermath of the T.O. situation and were going to be back in the divisional hunt. They watched the Giants and Redskins give games away, and a win would get them a game out of first place. Unfortunately for the Eagles, NFL games are 60 minutes long. That pass by McNabb might have been the worst pass I have ever seenand marked the 3rd game in a row that McNabb had thrown a pick with his team leading or going in for the tying score in the 4th quarter. The G-Men on the other hand played arguably their worst game of the year and got a big time wakeup call. No way the Mike McMahon moves the Eagles and the Giants need to "Show" that they are for real. Give the points, Giants win handily.

Giants 27-13

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore +4 1/2 - 3 weeks ago on a Monday night the Steelers squeaked by the Ravens20-19, and that was in Pittsburgh with Big Ben under center. The Steelers will have to use "Turnover" Tommy Maddux, and may be better off with former college QB's Antwon Randel El or Hines Ward. Kyle Boller is back for his 2nd start and I truly believe that the next 6 weeks are make or break for Boller AND Brian Billick. The Ravens will play tough, but I can't pick them to beat the Steelers, who travel as well as any team in the NFL. I will take the points, however.

Steelers 13-10

Seattle -12 1/2 @ San Francisco - It's official, the Seahawks are for real this year. Shaun Alexander is easily the MVP of the first half of the NFL Season. I think I will take Alexander to cover the spread this week as the 'Hawks won't need much more than that. Go ahead, give the 13, I'll take Alexander.

Shaun Alexander 28-13

Buffalo @ San Diego -10 1/2 - A big, must-win game for the Bills last week as J.P. Losman came off the bench to beat KC last week. Too bad for Buffalo that this game is one the West Coast in San Diego against a team that has been a disappointment this year at 5-4. Coming off their BYE week, the Chargers are "recharged" and set for the stretch run fighting for their playoff lives. I like L.T., Brees, and Gates to have a big day. Bills are Done.

Chargers 34-17

NY Jets @ Denver -12 1/2  -  As a Bronco Fan, I am always leery of games like this. The team is rolling along and are a big favorite against a team they should beat handily. In most cases I would take the points, knowing that the Broncos have a hard time blowing teams out and putting them away. There have been several instances of that this year. The jets, however, are an exception. They don't have Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb, or even Mark Brunell for that matter. Brooks Bollinger, who threw 4 picks in 6 attempts in the 2nd Half against the Panthers last week doesn't have the tools or the talent to score with the Broncos. I like Denver in this spot, and look for them to win big before a big Turkey Day game in Dallas.

Broncos 34-14

Indianapolis -5 1/2 @ Cincinnati - The Bengals are 7-2. The Colts 9-0. Several "Experts" are taking the Bengals. I am not convinced. The Bengalshave played 2 teams that would beconsidered playoff caliber, and were smacked down by both. The Pittsburgh game was the true tell-tale game for me. The Steelers went to Cincinnati and slapped the bengals around, beating them handily. The Colts are a better team than the Steelers. They aren't going to give the Bengals 5 turnovers, like the Bears and Packers. The more I think about this game, the more I think the Colts are going to win and win impressively. Give the points, the Colts prove their dominance.

Colts 27-17

Kansas City @ Houston +6 1/2 - The Chiefs are another team in big trouble. A bad loss in Buffalo last week leave them at 5-4, 2 games behind the Broncos. They travel to Houston, to play a Texans team with only 1 win. For some reason, I want to pick the Texans to win this game. I don't have a good reason, I just do. The Chiefs need to win this game or their playoff hopes are gone. The end of the Dick Vermeil era may be upon us, and this team looks older and older every week. I think they win this one, but I'll take the points and the Texans.

Chiefs 20-16

Minnesota +3 1/2 @ Green Bay - How many times have the Packers been on Prime-Time, anyway? It has to be a record for a team that is 2-7. The Vikes are starting to show some life, winning a couple in a row, including a crazy game in New York last weekend. Games between these two teams are usually classics, including the first game between them this year in the Dome, when the Vikings won at the buzzer on a 56 Yard Field Goal by Paul Edinger. The Pack will get sweet revenge on "The Tundra" this time, as they return the favor. Take the points, the Pack win.

Packers 24-21

Enjoy you Football Sunday everyone!

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