The Conscientious Objector

2:41:19 PM EDT
Feeling Angry

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1:38:47 PM EDT
Feeling Happy

 

                          

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12:52:27 PM EDT
Feeling Happy

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12:35:21 PM EDT
Feeling Happy

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1:27:13 AM EDT
Feeling Happy

The Illinois senator has picked up 26 superdelegates in the past week. At that pace, he will reach the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination — 2,025 — in the next three weeks, when delegates from the remaining primaries are included.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's best chance to slow Obama is to move the goal posts. She will get that chance May 31 when the Democratic National Committee's rules panel considers proposals to seat the delegates that had been stripped from Florida and Michigan. Those two states violated national party rules by holding their primaries in January and lost their delegates.

"Michigan and Florida are key to it," Howard Wolfson, Clinton's communications director, said Monday.

Obama picked up four superdelegates Monday, including Sen. Daniel Akaka of Hawaii and Rep. Tom Allen of Maine.

Allen, a six-term congressman who is running for the Senate, said the time has come for a "graceful end" to the nomination fight.

"I believe the process of reconciliation, the process of unifying this party, should begin sooner rather than later," Allen said. "It should begin in May and not in June."

Obama has 1,871.5 delegates, including endorsements from party and elected officials known as superdelegates. Clinton has 1,697, according to the latest tally by The Associated Press. That leaves Obama just 153.5 delegates short of the number needed to win the nomination at the party's national convention this August in Denver.

There are 217 delegates at stake in the six remaining primaries, in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota. Even if Clinton wins most of those delegates, Obama could reach the magic number by the time South Dakota and Montana vote on June 3.

Obama has been careful not to declare himself the nominee prematurely, even as his campaign focuses increasingly on Republican Sen. John McCain. Clinton's campaign, meanwhile, has outlined a strategy for winning the nomination that extends beyond the end of the primaries.

The battle might not last that long.

For Clinton to have a shot, she needs several things to fall her way, including the remaining superdelegates. Obama has claimed more than 80 percent of the superdelegates since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. He now leads in states won, pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses and superdelegate endorsements.

He erased her longtime advantage in superdelegates this weekend and now leads 281-271.5. Some 200 undecided superdelegates remain, with an additional 42 still to be selected at state party conventions and meetings throughout the spring. Superdelegates are party leaders who attend the convention as delegates by virtue of their positions, and are not selected in primaries and caucuses.

Clinton desperately needs to have the delegates from Michigan and Florida seated in a way that greatly benefits her.

"It would be helpful," Wolfson acknowledged.

The Democratic National Committee's rules and bylaws committee voted to strip all the delegates from Florida and Michigan because they violated party rules by holding primaries before Feb. 5. The same panel will consider reinstating them.

Under the votes cast in January, Clinton would have won most of the delegates in both states. However, neither candidate campaigned in either state and Obama had his name removed from the ballot in Michigan.

Reinstating all the delegates and superdelegates would increase the number needed to claim the nomination to 2,209, perhaps extending the campaign. But even under the best scenario for Clinton, Obama would still be left with a lead of about 100 delegates, with fewer than 300 superdelegates left to be claimed.

"We need to do well everywhere," Wolfson said. "Our hope is that superdelegates will look at the results in some of these states and recognize that Clinton would be the best nominee against John McCain."

___

Associated Press Writer Clarke Canfield in Portland, Maine, contributed to this report.

Superdelegates put Obama within mathematical reach - Yahoo! News

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1:14:19 AM EDT
Feeling Happy

Her problem is that it probably will be too little, too late. Rival Barack Obama has worked up such a head of steam that even a colossal victory by Clinton in West Virginia is likely to be irrelevant in the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Dominating the media over the weekend were stories that on Saturday, Obama surpassed Clinton in commitments from superdelegates--the party officials and activists who now hold the balance of power in deciding who will be the Democratic standard-bearer. By adding one delegate each from Utah, Ohio, and Arizona and getting two from the Virgin Islands to switch from Clinton, Obama reached 276 endorsements to Clinton's 271.5, according to the Associated Press. The roughly 250 remaining superdelegates are undecided or unannounced, but party veterans see a continuing trend toward Obama.

The margin is important because Clinton's dwindling hopes for the nomination have rested on her gaining a strong majority among the superdelegates, which now seems impossible.

That's why West Virginia, with only 38 delegates at stake, won't be pivotal even though Clinton enjoys a huge advantage there. The latest American Research Group poll released Friday had Clinton ahead of Obama by 66 to 23 percent. Clinton, a senator from New York, enjoys massive leads among seniors, women, whites, and working-class voters.

Clinton plans a final day of campaigning in West Virginia Monday, but she is clearly concerned that her chances are slipping. At a New York fundraiser Sunday, Clinton said, "Let's keep going. Stay with me. This has been a great adventure--let's make history." Seemingly acknowledging that the end is near, she added: "We're going to finish this nominating contest--what we will do--then we will have a nominee, and we will have a unified Democratic Party, we will stand together, defeat John McCain [the Republican candidate] in November, and go on to the White House."

But Obama, a senator from Illinois, has built up such a lead in overall delegates--1,864.5 to Clinton's 1,697--that he is only 160.5 delegates short of the 2,025 needed for the nomination, according to an AP tally released Sunday.

There are 217 pledged delegates available in the remaining six primaries in West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota. Obama and Clinton are likely to split these contests, three-to-three, which will enable Obama to maintain his advantage.

For his part, Obama is campaigning minimally in West Virginia and is focusing on the later contests in Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota. Appearing in Oregon Sunday, Obama said it's time for him to focus on his differences with McCain, who, he said, has largely gotten a free ride from the media.

A Clinton Win in West Virginia Over Obama Could Be Too Little, Too Late - Yahoo! News

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11:41:09 PM EDT
Feeling Hopeful

Obama All but Says Clinton Will Win West Virginia - New York Times

CHARLESTON, W.Va. — Senator Barack Obama acknowledged in a speech on Monday that Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton would probably win Tuesday’s Democratic primary in West Virginia as both candidates traveled the state to make last-minute appeals to voters.

“I am extraordinarily honored that some of you will support me,” Mr. Obama told a crowd at the Charleston Civic Center. “And I understand that many more here in West Virginia will probably support Senator Clinton.”

Mrs. Clinton scheduled four appearances in West Virginia on Monday. At a stop at Tudor’s Biscuit World on Monday morning, she greeted diners and emphasized the importance of West Virginia’s role as a bellwether of national politics.

"I keep telling people, no Democrat has won the White House since 1916 without winning West Virginia,” Mrs. Clinton said, according to The Associated Press.

Mr. Obama sought to shift the focus beyond the West Virginia primary to the national election in November. Speaking before a crowd heavily populated by military veterans in the Civic Center, Mr. Obama assailed the Bush administration’s treatment of returning troops and said the country needed to do more to help its veterans.

“At a time when were facing the largest homecoming since the Second World War, the true test of our patriotism is whether we will serve our returning heroes as well as they’ve served us,” he said.

Mr. Obama promised to cut red tape for veterans and to add more veterans’ health centers in rural areas and provide more support for troops who return without a home to live in. He criticized Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, for opposing Democratic legislation that would set up a program essentially underwriting public college tuition for people who have been on active duty for at least three years.

“I have great respect for John McCain’s service to this country and I know he loves it dearly and honors those who serve,” Mr. Obama said, in a nod he has made many times toward Mr. McCain’s service in Vietnam and time there as a prisoner of war. “But John McCain is one of the few senators of either party who oppose this bill because he thinks it’s too generous.”

Mr. McCain has joined opponents of the bill in his party and at the Pentagon who believe the bill is so generous as to induce active-duty military personnel to leave after qualifying for the benefit. Senator Lindsay Graham, Republican of South Carolina, has introduced a plan that would increase pre-existing monthly education stipends and allow servicemen and women to transfer their education subsidies to family members.

Mr. McCain’s campaign responded with an e-mail to reporters highlighting Mr. Obama’s vote against a September 2007 emergency appropriations bill that included veteran’s funding. “It is absurd for Barack Obama to question John McCain’s commitment to America’s veterans, when Obama himself voted against funding our nations veterans, and troops in the field during a time of war,” the McCain statement read. “Voters need a leader with uncompromising judgment, and will reject Barack Obamas decision to vote against funding our troops in the field, after he said it would be irresponsible to do so.”

Mr. Obama voted against the bill because it did not include provisions for withdrawing American troops from Iraq.

Mr. Obama plans to follow his West Virginia stops with visits to several states that are key to the general election: Michigan, Florida and Missouri. His aides said the trips should not be interpreted to mean that the candidate considers the primary race to be over, but indicated that Mr. Obama feels that Mr. McCain needs to be challenged as the generalelection draws closer.

Obama All but Says Clinton Will Win West Virginia - New York Times

 

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10:40:19 PM EDT
Feeling Happy Clinton Deadline Looms for Recouping $11 Million Personal Loan

Hillary Clinton may have a financial incentive to remain in the presidential race for a while. And she has Senator John McCain to thank for it.

Clinton loaned her struggling campaign $11 million in recent months. A little-known provision of a 2002 campaign- finance law cosponsored by McCain prevents candidates who drop out of the race from raising money after the nominating conventions to repay themselves for personal loans.

Should Clinton fail to come up with the funds by the Democratic convention in August, she'll be out the $11 million. If she quits the campaign before then, she may find it hard to get people to keep giving cash just so she can retire her debt.

That may ratchet up pressure on Clinton to cut a deal with rival Barack Obama to help her through his supporters. Obama may oblige since he would love to get her out of the race for the nomination so he could focus on the general election.

``Helping to pay off the debt would certainly be a clear signal of Obama's desire to bring the two candidates together,'' said Anthony Corrado, a professor of government at Colby College in Waterville, Maine.

Obama, 46, is keeping the door open to the possibility of helping pay her debt, which includes more than $10 million in unpaid bills to vendors and consultants -- including strategist Mark Penn, who remains a flash point of criticism for backing a trade deal she opposed.

`On the Team'

In the interest of unifying the party, Obama will seek ``a broad-ranging discussion with Senator Clinton about how I could make her feel good about the process and have her on the team,'' he told reporters in Oregon on May 9.

Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson said ``there have been no discussions along those lines'' and ``no contemplation of it.''

In the past, victorious candidates have helped their vanquished opponents pay off campaign debts. Supporters of Clinton, 60, aided former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack after he dropped out of the race last year. And McCain's backers gave to Kansas Senator Sam Brownback, a failed Republican contender.

There is one sleight-of-hand -- though legal -- tactic Clinton could use to pay off debts to others, though not to herself.

Through March 31, she had collected $23 million in donations designated for the general election.

Redirect Contributions

She could ask those donors to redirect the contributions toward her 2012 Senate re-election campaign rather than the 2008 presidential race, said Kenneth Gross, a former Federal Election Commission lawyer now at Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom LLP. The Senate campaign could then pay off the current debt to vendors and consultants, including Penn, to whom she owed $4.5 million through March 31.

In the past, such donations could have also gone to pay back a candidate's personal loans. The 2002 law, which banned corporate, union and unlimited individual contributions to campaigns, put a stop to that. It limited such repayments to $250,000.

``She has between now and the convention to raise money to retire the loan or else she will have made an $11 million contribution to her campaign,'' former Federal Election Commission Chairman Michael Toner said.

Federal election law prohibits Obama from directly aiding Clinton through his campaign war chest; nothing stops him from asking his donors to do so.

Obama Donors

Yet while Obama has mostly relied on smaller contributors to fuel his record-setting fundraising, he's unlikely to ask them to shell out any money for Clinton, who together with her husband earned $109 million from 2000 through 2007. And many of those donors are unlikely to be willing to help her after this hard-fought campaign.

Democratic consultant Peter Fenn, who is neutral in the race, said Obama will need to call upon those donors for the general election should he decide not to take public funding for the campaign, or to give to the Democratic Party if he does.

``They're very loyal Obama people,'' Fenn said. ``You're not going to raise that much money from those people for Hillary.''

More probable sources of financial help for Clinton would be those who have given the maximum $2,300 to Obama's campaign, said Democratic consultant Erik Smith.

``Few campaigns would mobilize their grassroots supporters for something like this, and Obama certainly wouldn't,'' said Smith, an adviser to Richard Gephardt's 2004 presidential race. ``The most likely scenario would be that some of Obama's largest donors would work discreetly and independently of the campaign to raise money.''

Source:  Bloomberg

Posted on Monday, May 12, 2008 at 10:46 am

Clinton Deadline Looms for Recouping $11 Million Personal Loan

 

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6:55:59 PM EDT
Feeling Mischievous