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Subject: NFL PICKS...WEEK 4
Time: 11:42:00 PM EDT
Author: skiks
I reference the Tuesday Morning Quarterback written by Gregg Easterbrook every now and again. He gives very funny nicknames to the majority of the NFL teams, which are absolutely hilarious. But he also, makes some very insightful comments about the games he watches and the pivotal plays that decide them. Well, I wrote down some notes on a couple of the games that I saw this weekend, and sure enough, he quoted the same things I saw on two of the games. But here’s my take on the week that was and my picks for this week.
Kicking’s for Sissies!
At the end of the 1st half of the Eagles-49ers game, San Francisco was driving down the field and in Eagles territory. The Niners faced a fourth down with less than 30 seconds left in the half. In trotted the punting unit to a chorus of boos. I didn’t write “game over” in my book like TMQ but I did turn off the game and proceed to the mall knowing that the game was well in hand. The score was 24-3 at the time. What did they have to lose by going for it? The Eagles were just going to take a knee and go into the locker room up by 3 TDs. Going for it and failing would have been a signal to his team that the coach has not given up on them. Alas, the football gods did not favor the meek!
In that same spirit, Joe Paterno, down 14-3 faced a fourth and goal in the fourth quarter of the Penn St.-Ohio St. game in Columbus. Penn St. was just penalized 5 yards after being stopped 3 times inside the 5-yard line. In trots the field goal unit to cut the lead to 8 points. Now, fundamentally, it was sound strategy. They turned a two-score deficit to a one-score deficit. But, even a failed fourth down attempt would have given his charges the signal that the old, old, old man was still trying to win the game. Instead, the next two Penn St. possessions resulted in 14 points for the Buckeyes.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Auburn took the first possession of the second half in their game against South Carolina (the real USC) and marched down the field for a field goal. On the ensuing kickoff, the place-kicker lofted an onside kick to the far sideline, which Auburn recovered. The Tigers marched down the field, maintained possession for the entire third quarter, and finally scored on the first play of the fourth quarter. That was 31 straight plays with the ball. As is always said, the best defense in football is to not give the other team the ball. South Carolina mounted a comeback, but did not have enough time to score the second touchdown.
If I were coach, we’d all learn the rules and know what the situation is.
It would be helpful to today’s student-athletes if they were taught about game situations. Boston College led NC State 15-10 in the fourth quarter. Facing 4th and 2 at the Wolf Pack 27-yard line with 46 seconds left, Boston College ran the ball with the hopes of icing the game. Normally, I am in favor of this aggressive strategy, except when you already have the lead. If they punted or attempted a field goal, they could have either pushed the lead to 8, which would have required a two-point conversion if NC State would score a touchdown. If they punted, they would have at least, forced NC State to go 80 yards for a touchdown. If they missed the field goal attempt they would have killed at least 6 seconds and NC State would still have had to go 73 yards. What happened? BC ran the ball, and lost a yard!
Nevertheless, the game was well in hand. Tuesday Morning Quarterback notes that the there were 46 seconds left and NC State needed to travel 72 yards. Where do you think NC State would go? Perhaps up the field? So, whatever, NC State starts heading up the field. Here’s where my problem begins. In College Football, the penalty for pass interference is 15 yards. So, if you tackle a receiver attempting to catch a ball in the end zone, the penalty is only 15 yards. If the defensive back covering Brian Dunlap, the player who caught the game-winning touchdown with only 8 seconds, would have simply thrown him to the ground, NC State would have had to run another play from the 19 yards line and with only 8 seconds. That leaves NC State with only one play to get a touchdown with no room for error. Yes, by looking at it, there were many instances where BC lost the game, but don’t you think the defensive coordinator would have told his guys: “Look, they’re heading downfield so don’t get beat long, and for God’s sake, don’t let them catch the damned ball, I don’t care what you have to do.”
Anyway, onto this week’s picks:
Colts @ Jets (+9): I generally tend to keep away from teams that are giving away too many points on the road. Plus, the Jets have played tough games this year, but there is just something I do not buy about the Jets. Maybe, it’s just their history of being a decent team in the regular season and then crapping the bed in big games. Plus, it’s a meaningless regular season game, so the Colts will be in top form for it. PICK: Colts.
Chargers @ Ravens (+2.5): This is a very overrated matchup. First, neither team has really played anyone good. Dominating crappy opposition is not a prerequisite for being a good team. If you take a look at the degrees of dominance, the Chargers are by far and to this point in the season the most dominating team. I think the Chargers defense is better and their offense really hasn’t shown anything yet. PICK: Chargers.
Vikings @ Bills (-1): Why are the Vikings getting a bad rap? They have been playing sound defense and capitalizing on mistakes. I don’t think the Vikings are very good, but they are playing the way a crappy team should. Limit your mistakes and don’t do anything stupid. The Vikings are a very well-coached team and Buffalo has coughed up too many winnable situations for me to have faith in. PICK: Vikings.
Cowboys @ Titans (+9.5): Kool-Aid 1: “Hey, when you do you picks this week, you gotta say something about T.O. and taking too many pills!” Okay, blah-blah-blah-T.O. Blah-blah-blah-blah-PILLS. Blah-blah-blah-blah-too damn many. Blah-blah-blah-blah-MORON! PICK: Cowboys.
49ers @ Chiefs (-7): This game has pillow-potential as their combined 1-4 record would suggest. But K.C. isn’t a really bad team. Their defense hasn’t been good since the death of Derrick Thomas. But they do have two marquee players on offense. The 49ers are surprisingly not as bad as I thought they were. Now, they did get slaughtered by the Eagles last week, but the Chiefs are not the Eagles. If both teams were healthy I would take the Niners to win. But since they are not, I’m just looking for them to cover, even though a member of the Huard family will be involved. PICK: 49ers.
Saints @ Panthers (-7.5): Okay, let me get this straight. The Saints dismantled the Falcons on Monday night and haven’t lost yet this year. The Panthers were absolutely bludgeoned by that same Falcons team and barely escaped with one win so far this year. So why on earth are the Panthers favored by 7.5? I mean they almost lost to a guy with a ruptured spleen. Yet, why do I feel like I’m getting suckered in this one? PICK: Saints.
Cardinals @ Falcons (-7): I don’t think I have ever heard of a team reacting well to the head coach going to the press and dangling the starting QB’s job in front of him. If Denny Green wants to dangle jobs, how about the jobs of the O-Line coach and the O-Line? Edgerrin James is still a good back and he’s averaging 3.4 ypc. Can a brotha get a blocka? PICK: Falcons.
Dolphins @ Texans (+3.5): Maybe, this is the game that everything turns around for Daunte Culpepper. And did you ever think you would hear any crowd chant for Joey Harrington? And I pick this week as the week you will start hearing the Reg-gie, Reg-gie chants. After all, when you are a franchise dumb enough to pass on Reggie Bush, you deserve to have your fans turn on you. All 12 of them. PICK: Dolphins.
Lions @ Rams (-5.5): It’s the return of Mike Martz to St. Louis! HIDE! He may officially go crazy. Okay, I know he’s always been crazy, but I mean he’s gonna go T.O. in a pharmacy crazy! (There! Are you happy Steve?) PICK: Rams.
Patriots @ Bengals (-6): You know, I keep waiting for the Pats to start playing like the Pats. It looked like they were playing down to their opposition, and then they got shish-kabobbed by Denver. So, I started thinking, “Are the Pats ever gonna come back?” I mean every time I started writing these guys off they come back and make me look like an idiot. So, here’s your chance Mr. Brady! Prove me wrong again, because I think you guys stink! The dynasty is dead! Finished! Morte! And wouldn’t it be the dagger to lose to the hands of the Cinci-naughty Bengals. It’s like a torch-passing, but without the good-natured chumminess. Sunday is the day the torch gets ripped from the Patriots! Well, at least until they prove me wrong again. PICK: Bengals.
Jaguars @ Redskins (+3): The Redskins are dead men walking. Yes, the Jags are coming off of a terrible letdown game, and Brunell set an NFL record with 22-straight completions, but it was against the 1-AA Texans. Let’s just be real. There is no way that Washington comes out of this game with a season intact. They are done! Hell, even Byron Leftwich can’t throw this one away. PICK: Jaguars.
Browns @ Raiders (+3): If you have the words “Cleveland Browns” and “road favorites” in the same sentence without the words “not”, “never” or “breaking the seventh seal of the apocalypse”…then you have THE PILLOW FIGHT OF THE WEEK! So really, if the Browns do win this, I’m officially starting the 0-16 watch for Oakland. I’ll even give it one of those cheesy ESPN taglines: CHASING FUTILITY. PICK: Browns.
Seahawks @ Bears (-3.5): So, the curse has struck again. Madden-cover-boy, Shaun Alexander goes down with a broken foot. I think this curse is real, so I’m starting a movement. Hey EA Sports! T.O. for 07! It would rid football of the two biggest jackasses for the season, since it would cause Tuna’s head to explode. Anyway, I think the Seahawks played well enough last week and Rex Grossman was sketchy enough to make this an upset. PICK: Seahawks.
Packers @ Eagles (-11): At least, we will all be spared the man-crush that John Madden has on Brett Favre. No more “Brett Favre is such a warrior” crap. Brett Favre is an egomaniac that cost at least one coach his job, and is costing a franchise valuable time to groom his successor, Aaron Rogers. He’s a schmuck. He wasn’t even good in “There’s Something About Mary” (and yes that’s back to back weeks with Mary references). The Birds must and will punish them. PICK: Eagles.
AND FINALLY…
Will TEMPLE Cover?
NO!
But things are looking up for the Broad Street Bums! They actually scored a touchdown! And it only took them 3 hours, 34 minutes, 7 seconds and an untimed overtime period to finally cross the opponent’s goal line. They also upped their points-per-game average to over 2! This should get the Owls properly pumped up for their trip to Nashville to take on the Commodores of Vanderbilt. The line is 34 and I don’t even think the suck-factory of Vanderbilt athletics can screw this one up.
Next week, more useless football info.
Thanks again for reading and I’ll do better next time.
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