JR's Random Anger

Breaking the Roy Kramer Code

At approximately 4:15 EDT today, the first in a series of Bowl Championship Series standings will be announced.  The BCS has always struck a nerve with me, since College Football has been producing National Champions for at least a hlaf-century before the first Super Bowl.  Which is why I find a system that has been in place for only eight years claiming to provide the college football fans with a game between the top two ranked teams, a bit ridculous.  Especially, because the end product of the BCS rarely produces a true matchup of the two best teams!  In fact, it has produced exactly 3 dispute-free national championship games.

Since, the field of possible teams that can earn a BCS berth has grown to 10, I will this year, track which teams should be playing during the first week of January and more importantly for the National Champoinship.  But for review, let's go over the BCS rules, that have been modified for this year from the original version written by the BCS Committee first headed by former SEC Comissioner Roy Kramer.

The conference champions of the six BCS leagues (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, PAC-10, SEC) are all automatically qualified and reserve a spot in one of the 5 BCS Bowl Games (Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, Rose, and National Championship).

The Committee will then select 4 additional at-large teams based off of BCS Standings, with some guidelines.  All qualifying team must have at least 9 wins.  Any team that ranks 4th or higher is automatically qualified for a BCS berth (Kansas St. Rule).  Any conference champion of a non-BCS Conference must finish the regular season in the top 16 to be eligible OR finish in the top 12 for an automatic berth (Utah Rule).  Notre Dame must finish the season 8th or better to earn an at large bid.  All rankings are based off of a formula that includes the Harris Poll, Coaches Poll, eight computer rankings, strength of schedule, and possibily the equation for Einstein's theory of relativity.  It produces an equation that makes the calculation of the NFL QB rating system look simple.

Anyway, here's my take on which teams are right now in the drivers' seats for one of the BCS bowls, plus some unlikely and slightly off of the radar teams that have a chance to be BCS Busters!

National Title Game: Ohio St.vs. Southern Cal: I know this isn't very creative but really the likelihood of a Michigan/Ohio St. National Championship Game is off the charts unlikely, because only one team will finish undefeated.  So any scenario that has UM and OSU in the final game MUST include a loss from USC and probably losses from every other team in the current Top 10.  Now, I think Michigan and Ohio St. are right now the two best teams in the country, but they will not be playing in Arizona on Jan 8th.

BCS Automatic Qualifiers: Florida (SEC), Georgia Tech (ACC), West Virginia (Big East), Texas (Big 12): These teams are currently in first place in their conferences at this time, or are at least tied for it.  These schools will change until December, but right now, this is how they stand.

At-Large Bids: Notre Dame, Louisville, Michigan and Auburn: Selecting Louisville is the biggest stretch, but they have a very difficult remainder of their schedule with two more games against Top 25 competition and another with Pitt who will be in the Top 25 soon.  They have the longest odds of keeping their spot.  Notre Dame has the best odds since they are ranked 8 and 9 in the respective polls, with a strong opening strength of schedule and a realitvely easy closing run up to the Glamour Game in LA.  Remember, ND must only get to eight to qualify.  Auburn will get in if they hold serve, because the SEC is overrated and their SOS will reflect the overrating.  Michigan is in as long as they stay undefeated until Nov. 18.  Even if they lose to Ohio St., they should still get in via an at large bid, because a loss to the overall #1 team shouldn't reflect too poorly.

BCS Busters!

Boise State: The Broncos of the Smurf Turf have a clear shot at the BCS.  They only need to get to number 12 in the rankings and of all Division I teams, they have the greatest odds of finishing undefeated.  Their only knock is SOS, which is underrated since they beat a PAC-10 opponent and play in a very competitive conference.  The WAC has no cupcakes like Illinois, Miss St., Stanford, or Duke.  They will also gain on the opponents since they will gain ground on every loss from every other team in contention.

Rutgers: Don't laugh!  Rutgers has a chance to go head-to-head with Pitt, Louisville, and West Virginia.  Their defense is stifling.  They can play ball.  The odds are they would have to win their conference, which means going undefeated.  It would be tough sledding but they are a good team that could bust the BCS.

Wake Forest, Boston College, Clemson: It's anybody's game in the Big East!  Well, anybody's but Miami, Va. Tech and FSU.  Some new blood in the BCS.  It's about damn time.

Anyway, i'll update my BCS predictions periodically to accompany my NFL Picks, because, hey, College Ball is cool!  Here's my Pro Picks.  And, Kool-Aid 1, I'll figure out my record next week, so stop complaining!

Bengals @ Buccaneers (+6): It seems like every year there is a team in the NFC, that has a great, but overachieveing season, that culminates in a total collapse the next year. The Bucs are this year's "Not Team". Their defense is only a carcass of the team that closed the Vet. The Cadillac won't start. Their starting QB is missing body parts. Things are not looking good. And after Cincy's "fraidy cat" performance against the Pats, when they punted in opposition territory at home; the only reason I am picking the Bungles are the Bucs' woes. PICK: Bengals.

Titans @ Redskins (-10):  I don't think people are making enough of the Letdown Game possibilities for the Titans. Do you honestly think they can come back after almost beating Peyton Manning, and win a relatively meaningless non-conference game against an underachieveing Washington team? Besides, the Skins must be seathing at the mouth after they were emasculated in New York. PICK: Redskins.

Texans @ Cowboys (-13): The Team Obliterator (T.O.) can try all he wants, but there is no way the Gals lose this game. Even the Team Obliterator cannot force a loss to the franchise that passed on Reggie Bush. But hey things are looking up! Mario Williams finally recorded a sack. PICK: Cowboys.

Bills @ Lions (+1): I had to confer with Chad on this one, but we have a consensus. When you add the Lions, the Bills, and Jon Kitna, you get THE PILLOW FIGHT OF THE WEEK! Is there anyone who will actually watch this game? I mean even the people of Detroit won't be watching, because they'll be tending to their post-AL Pennant hangovers. PICK: Bills

Seahawks @ Rams (+3): There is something about the Seahawks that just doesn't have me believing in them.  I don't kow what it is, but I also don't know why I keep putting my fainth in the Rams.  Oh, team of little defense.  I think this is the game where the Seahawks lose total control of the NFC West. PICK: Rams.

Giants @ Falcons (-3): Atlanta averages 234 yards per game on the ground, while the Giants have a reputation for being weak against the run.  Does this seem like a perfect storm to you or what?  PICK: Falcons.

Eagles @ Saints (+3): Why does it seem like every time the Eagles play a team with a dynamic player, everyone gets all geeked up over stopping him.  When the Eagles played the Falcons in 2004, everyone was afraid that Mike Vick would run all over the place and cause havoc.  Just make him a pocket passer and he's harmless.  It's the same thing with Reggie Bush.  Don't try and punish him, just contain him.  Besides, I think New Orleans should be a little more concerned with stopping Brian Westbrook.  Nobody has mentioned him yet.  PICK: Eagles.

Panthers @ Ravens (-3): This is another one of those games (as it seems like every game for the Ravens is) when I find myself asking which teams offense has the better shot against the opposing defense.  On paper this looks to be a low scoring game since both defenses are phenominal.  I just think the Ravens have a better chance of scoring against the Panthers rather than vice versa.  PICK: Ravens.

Dolphins @ Jets (-2): This was my backup for Pillowfight of the Week.  I had at least a little faith in the Jets, until they absolutely crapped the bed against Jacksonville.  The Dolphins have Daunte Culpepper on the roster and Joey Harrington actually gives them a better chance of winning.  So what is that actual improvement?  None to slim?  By the way, I love how the Dolphins were everyone's chic pick to go to the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season.  Andnow no one is mentioning that they picked this teeming pile of stink to win the Super Bowl.  PICK: Jets.

Chargers @ 49ers (+10): Marty Schottenheimer took the reins off of Phillip Rivers and look what happened.  The Chargers looked great in their last two games.  And I would like to thank the 49ers for keeping alive the most intriguing chase in sports last week.  But all gratitude aside, they have no chance this week.  PICK: Chargers.

Chiefs @ Steelers (-6.5): Remember when the Steelers won the Super Bowl?  Did that actually happen?  We might possibly be looking at the worst ever performance by a defending champion, that did not purposefully purge its roster.  Was the Bus really that special to that team?  How can Big Ben be this bad?  I mean he's thrown 9 ints in his last 4 games (and one of those games was the Super Bowl!).  Really I just want to know when I can start throwing out the "deal-with-the-devil" jokes that we all threw at Kurt Warner when he was alive.  But as stinky as the Steelers are right now, their opponents are led by a Huard.  PICK: Steelers.

Raiders @ Broncos (-15): This is how bad the Raiders are.  The Broncos average under 13 points per game.  They are favored by 15 against the Raiders.  Will the Raiders be deducted points because they are single-handedly lowering the quality of the NFL?  This is the same team that let the Browns (yes, the BROWNS) stage an 18-point second half comeback IN THE BLACK HOLE!  Luckily for Oakland, they do have the Cardinals on the schedule.  PICK: Broncos.

Bears @ Cardinals (+10.5): This is the Monday night game?  PICK: Bears.

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