JR's Random Anger

NFL Picks and depression

Sun, 19 Nov 2006 16:38:29 GMT

I haven't been this sad about sports since St. Joe's lost to that school whose name I will never mention on that last-second prayer by John Lucas' bastard son. Anyway, here are my NFL PICKS:

Dolphins (-3.5) over Vikings

Bengals (+3) over Saints

Bears (-6) over Jets

Titans (+13) over Eagles

Ravens (-3.5) over Falcons

Texans (+2.5) over Bills

Steelers (-4) over Browns

Bucs (-3) over Redskins

Rams (+6) over Panthers

Patriots (-6) over Packers

Raiders (+9.5) over Chiefs

Lions (+2) over Cardinals

Seahawks (-3.5) over 49ers

Cowboys (+1) over Colts

Chargers (+2.5) over Broncos

Giants (+3.5) over Jacksonville

ARMAGEDDON

Fri, 17 Nov 2006 23:29:40 GMT

ed. note: I started writing this entry before I found out that Bo Schembechler died. As if there wasn't enough drama surrounding the game this week, one of the great architects of this greatest rivalry in sports is gone. There might be so much emotion from both sides of the Shoe tomorrow, that the whole stadium may explode. Well, let's just hope it falls down after Michigan wins. GO BLUE!

For the first time in forever, my two favorite teams, Michigan and Saint Joe's have begun their respective seasons a combined 11-0! Sure, Michigan has accounted for 10 of those wins, but hey, both the Hawks and Wolverines are undefeated! So, I figured I'd better start writing before things change and I can't honestly make the undefeated claim anymore.

BCS Banter

I love underdogs and there was nothing more enjoyable than waching Rutgers (yes...Rutgers!) come back on Louisville and throw their hats over the wall and into the National Championship race. So, I'm about to type something I never thought I would ever type in a college football article.

But not yet...

Without a playoff system and while everything is still based on preseason rankings, we are lucky enough to have a relative sense of symmetry and finality to the final month of the season. Every single team in the top 8 of the BCS Standings, plays another member of the top 8. USC and Notre Dame play the Glamour Game in LA. Florida and Arkansas will play each other in the SEC Championship. Rutgers and West Virginia will play the last regular season game. Oh, yeah, there's one more this weekend, and it has something to do with Ohio State and Michigan.

Now in a perfect world, all of these teams would play and the winners would play each other until Jan. 8th. But, we know college football is good for at least one thing...creating arguments. So here are some of them as we head into the "elimination rounds".

I'm in...R U?

This may be repeating an argument already made by someone, but here's my take. West Virginia was the first Big East team to have the "if they go undefeated, they'll play for the national championship" tag. After Louisville beat them the Cards had that tag. So you would think the natural progression would be that Rutgers would play for the National Championship if they go undefeated. Right? Well, why are Florida, Notre Dame and USC ahead of Rutgers in the current BCS Standings? Why is no one saying that Rutgers should be in line for the national title? Look, if RU is one of the two remaining schools that play in a BCS conference that is undefeated at the end of the season, they SHOULD play for the title. No questions asked. If there was another undefeated team in the mix then RU would be out. But if RU finishes undefeated, they will have beaten two top 10 teams on their way to an undefeated record. Do you know the only other team that can lay claim to that stature? The winner of the UM-OSU game.

But I was glad to watch the Rutgers win last week. Every year, there is a resurgent or up-and-coming team that faces a daunting game against a more mainstream opponent. A loss in that game has led to catastrophic collapses in the past. Fresno State was a quarter away from knocking off USC last year, but fell short. They haven't been the same since. BYU also had a great season derailed by a late-season loss to Miami in 2000 and they vanished from the college football landscape until just recently. I really thought that a loss to Louisville would be crippling to the advancement of the program. Now, even a loss to West Virginia shouldn't be crippling to the program. They are definitely built to stay.

Rematch? Why not!

Because the national media has already written off the possibility of an undefeated Rutgers playing for a national title, the big question swirling around college football has been: Who's the best one-loss team in College Football? Everyone has put their two cents in and nominated just about every team possible. Well, every team but one...

Now there can be great arguments made for all the applicable team. But why has no one actually said that the best one-loss team in America will be the loser of the Michigan-Ohio State game? Can you honestly think of a better team? Is USC, or Florida, or Arkansas, or Notre Dame a better team than either Michigan or Ohio State? Let me just answer it plainly for you. NO!

I am one of those guys who doesn't think that the game is cheapened if they indeed to play each other again in January. Hell, it might be the first national championship game in years that has actually meant something to the combatants. Maybe it will add an extra edge to the championship. We'll probably never get to see it, because the football know-it-alls think it's more logical to have a team that lost badly in the beginning of the year (ND, Ark.) or a team that blew a conference game (Fla., USC), play in the championship over a team that lost it's only game to either the #1 or #2 team after 11 straight wins.

And you wonder why people are clamoring for a playoff system.

We're # 12!

Frankly, I don't know of anyone that would get excited over being the 12th best in anything. I mean it's great to be the 12th best football team in the country, but it also means that there are 11 better teams. I mean the fans of Rutgers and Wake Forest, would get excited about any number in front of their school when it comes to football. Hell, when Saint Joseph's were ranked #25 when I was a student there, it made the front page of the school paper (cleverly named The Hawk). But for a team that has been ranked at some point during the last 3 years...#12 might not be that exciting. In 2004, they finished #10! But Boise State is happy to sit at #12.

Well, maybe I should put it another way: "We're gonna make millions of dollars!" That's basically the difference between playing on New Year's in Arizona and paying a few days before that in Boise. Well, that and warmer weather. And playing before a prime time national television audience.

But 12 is the magic number for Boise State, because a 12th place finish or higher in the final BCS Standings means the Broncos are guaranteed a spot in one of the five biggest bowl games in college football. 12, also translates to the amount of wins needed to get there. So, all that stands in the way of the BCS and the guardians of the Smurf Turf are Utah State and Nevada.

And for those that will carp and whine and moan that a team from Boise, Idaho that plays on blue astroturf, will be performing on the biggest of College Football stages, I need only pull out this stat. Among Boise State's 10 victims this season is Oregon State. Yes, the very same Oregon State team that beat the current #3 team in the country, USC.

Boise State belongs!

Speaking of belonging amongst the elite...here's my current BCS projections:

National Championship: UM-OSU Winner vs. USC.

Don't get too comfortable with the Trojans. They still have Cal and Notre Dame to play.

Rose Bowl Game: UM-OSU Loser vs. Notre Dame.

What if Michigan loses? Won't people complain about this possible rematch?

Sugar Bowl: Florida vs. ACC Champ.

Can you honestly believe that the ACC will be decided between Maryland, Georgia Tech, and WAKE FOREST?

Orange Bowl: Arkansas vs. RUTGERS.

And by the way, when I mentioned something that I would type that I never thought I would ever type. That was it.

Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Boise State.

Hey, I called this one last time. Nothing changed. How boring!

The NFL picks will be up on Saturday night, unless the Michigan game causes heavy intoxication. Either good or bad!

BCS Banter and more wrong picks!

Fri, 10 Nov 2006 21:08:25 GMT

Okay, I really haven't had a chance to write ANYTHING this week. This will be a very short blog entry, and hopefully I'll have time to enter something this week, especially since almost the entire landscape of College Football changedthis weekend. So, anyway here are my picks for this week.

Browns (+8) over Falcons

Chiefs (+1) over Dolphins

Vikings (-5) over Packers

Patriots (-10.5) over Jets

Redskins (+7) over Eagles

Texans (+10) over Jaguars

Chargers (+1) over Bengals

Lions (-6) over Niners

Ravens (-7) over Titans

Colts (-12.5) over Bills

Broncos (-9.5) over Raiders

Dallas (-6.5) over Cards

Saints (+5) over Steelers

Giants (-1) over Bears

Bucs (+9.5) over Panthers

NFL PICKS, BCS, and Eulogies!

Fri, 03 Nov 2006 23:26:51 GMT

RIP Kool-Aid 1!

Earlier this week, Steve, my friend and co-worker, who I renamed Kool-Aid 1, left our store to go play with computers in the I.T. department. So, as he leaves to go be Julian's bitch in Doylestown, I'm going to leave a little gift for him.

Before he passed away, Kool-Aid swore to everyone, "I'm done! I'm never watching them again." Needless to say, that Kool-Aid was talking about his beloved Eagles. Even though the Chickens are letting poor-old Kool-Aid down this year, there is no reason to fret. Here are some simple things that all of the major Philly teams can do right now, to improve their chances of winning a title. (By the way, as the Sixers tipped off on Wednesday to a half-empty Wachovia Center [great job guys!] it marks the beginning of the 91st sports season without a championship in Philly!) So here's to you Kool-Aid! Despite what you hear Angelo Cataldi and all of the other WIP bobbleheads, it really isn't as bad as it seems.

Eagles: "Take the menu from Andy Reid." Frankly, I think Andy is not a bad head coach. He game plans very well. Normally, the Eagles have the right plays put into place to beat a team. But, Andy stinks as a Offensive Coordinator! Which is esentially his job, since he calls the damned plays. Look, Marty Mornhinweg has the official title of O.C. Why not make him earn his damned money? Besides, having someone else dedicated to play-calling might give Andy a chance to do something other than stare at that damned menu, like...oh, I don't know...MONITOR THE FREAKING TIMEOUTS! I mean it's not like Marty will have to do anything difficult like choosing between thte ball and the wind for overtime. The game plan is laid out, just let him call the damned plays. Because not much else needs to be done. I wouldn't trade McNabb for any other quarterback in the league right now not named Tom Brady. The defense is good enough. The offense (when healthy) is good. Just lose the menu, Andy, and go get a cheeseburger!

Phillies: "Stay out of Pat Gillick's way." Pat Gillick is the only GM that can feed the line, "We'll be buyers and sellers." Then he goes out and does it, and damned if he didn't make it work. The Phils were one of the best teams after the trading deadline. Now, Gillick, is in the process of completely transforming a logjammed roster filled with immovable contracts into a freely-flowing machine that has interchangable parts centered around some fantastic players (Rollins, Utley, Howard). His moves with Jamie Moyer and Cole Hammels were genius. Moyer will likely succeed into a coaching role with the Phillies after his imminent retirement. Even with a buffoon as a manager the Phils are very close to winning a title. Hell, they had more wins that this year's World Champions! Doesn't this sound a lot like a franchise that won back-to-back titles in 92-93?

Sixers: "Tie Billy King down and hide his phone!" Let's face it. In a salary cap sport, every team is bound to go into cap hell. What's cap hell? It's when a team has bound themselves into paying a lot of money to players they no longer have or players that are way past their prime. This is your Philadelphia 76ers! Chris Webber and Allen Iverson will make a combined $39 million dollars this year and $42.4 the next. By 07-08, $20 million comes off of the Sixers payroll, since they are still paying Todd MacCulloch, Jamal Mashburn, Aaron McKie, and Greg Buckner. In 08-09 they gain another $30 million dollars in salary dump. And Iverson goes off the books after '09. So here's my theory. Start a mini-farm system. You know the Sixers are at least 2 years away from doing anything without further binding up the team in useless salaries. So, just let C-Webb and A.I. play out their contracts. And for the love of God, DO NOT RE-SIGN ANY MORE DRAFT PICKS!!! The Sixers have a nasty habit of over-valuing their own talent, and giving them more money than they are worth. Sammy is not worth $10 million a year and Korver isn't even worth the haircut he needs. Just let everything play out, and then they can get a real GM that will assemble a winner.

Flyers: "Buy Dynamite!" I'm sorry but I have nothing good to say about this crapfest! I don't even like their announcers. The Flyers are not in cap hell, but in a way they are in Rule-Change Hell. They have a team filled with archaic big-bodied defensemen that cannot defend anyone under the new rules. Forsberg, it seems clear, doesn't want to play in Philly. And why, oh why don't they trust foreign-born players?

Okay, so there are only three teams with hope. Anyway, Kool-Aid I hope you jump back on the bandwagon of another Philly team. At least, from a humor aspect, you turn driving the bandwagon was quite fun. Just for the love of God, don't jump on Nova's wagon!

More BC-Mess Talk!

As probably everyone who reads this knows, I am a HUGE Michigan fan. Michigan has been my team in College Football, since the mid-80s. Yes, it started out because they have cool helmets, but once I began to follow the team, they quickly became my favorite football team (yes, ahead of the Eagles). And since I don't like either Penn State (JoePa is a whiner) or Notre Dame (too arrogant) it became logical to root for the team that regularly plays these two schools and can beat them! And while I do root for other college football teams like, Boston College (they beat the Irish), Temple (local and Big 5), Air Force (option football) Boise State (Smurf Turf) and Florida (the gator chop is cool), Big Blue stands out above them all!

And much like any other team I follow, they can't win a championship either. In my lifetime, all the teams I follow have produced exactly 2 1/2 championships. This includes 2 titles before I turned 5! Michigan produced the 1/2 title. They split the championship with Nebraska, and that was the last year before the institution of the BCS came into existence.

So following the BCS is natural to me this year considering the implications that Michigan has at the very least, a 50% chance of making it to the National Championship! And it's also why I am taking such delight in the chaos that has occurred below Michigan and Ohio St. in the rankings! The more chaos, the better the chances that Michigan plays for a National title regardless of the outcome of November 18! And remember my disclaimer from last week, "Hey, this scenario isn't likely, but it get's more likely every week." So, here are my bowl projections for the BCS bowls. Yes, these are subject to change.

BCS National Championship: OSU-UM Winner* vs. Florida*. Since I don't want to jinx the Wolverines I will not put either Ohio St or Michigan in a bowl until after Armageddon. Just to get an idea of the National Championship, picture an NCAA B-ball style bracket. Now just put Ohio State and Michigan on one side. Then put about 8 other teams on the other side including the loser of Armageddon. Right now, Florida has the best profile of the rest, IF they can win out. Another loss from now until December will kill their chances. (* denotes automatic bid)

Rose Bowl: OSU-UM Loser vs. California*. How nice is this? The worst case for the loser of Armageddon is a trip to Pasadena to play in the Rose Bowl. That's the good news. The bad news? Playing Cal! Don't laugh, Cal has been playing the best football in the country since their opening night shellacking at the hands of the Vols.

Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Auburn. The shame of the BCS is this: There will be an SEC team in the BCS that did not PLAY in the SEC championship game. Because of an early-season blowout at the hands of USC, Arkansas is ranked too low to make a BCS bowl without winning the SEC. The Sugar Bowl gets the first pick of at-large teams and no bowl would be foolish enough to pick a team other than the Irish. They clearly have the largest fan base of any team in the country ,which will result in greater viewership and more ad buys. And who doesn't think the Sugar Bowl will want the "War Eagle" in New Orleans.

Orange Bowl: ACC Champion* vs. Louisville*. Okay, here's REALLY why the BCS is ridiculous and they need to scrap the damned thing in favor of a playoff system. The crap soup that is the ACC will automatically put a steamer in the BCS, and it will play host for the Orange Bowl. But because the ACC Champ goes to the Orange Bowl and the SEC Champ goes to the Fiesta Bowl, the public is robbed of some great matchups. Instead, the fans in Miami will watch Louisville destroy whatever JV squad the ACC sends.

Fiesta Bowl: Texas* vs. Boise State*. If you were in charge of the Orange Bowl, who would you take Louisville or Boise State? Yeah, that's why they're here. Texas will host assuming they win the Big 12. Boise State is now off of the bubble and will earn an automatic bid. They are ahead of every ACC team and in the top 16 which earns them an automatic bid.

Just Missed: Arkansas, Tennessee, Rutgers, Southern Cal.

Here are the NFL Picks. The game descriptions are shorter because of the passing of Kool-Aid.

Chiefs @ Rams (-2): Neither one of these teams is as bad as I thought they would be, so I'll go with the team not featuring a Huard. PICK: Rams

Bengals @ Ravens (-3): "Ocho-cinco" was more like "Mucho-Dumpo" last week. And Steve McNair looked like Steve McNair. PICK: Ravens

Texans @ Giants (-13.5): Whoever said that there is parity in the NFL hasn't taken a strong look at the Texans. PICK: Giants

Titans @ Jaguars (-9.5): Are the Jags really that good, or are the Eagles that bad? Or maybe both... PICK: Titans

Cowboys @ Redskins (+3): You can't spell Tony Romo without T.O. He's still a few weeks away from blowing up the team, but falling asleep in the meeting is a good starting point. PICK: Cowboys

Packers @ Bills (-3): Morency! Losman! Live from Buffalo! It's the Pillow Fight of the Week! One week from the Favre bed-crapping incident. PICK: Packers

Saints @ Buccaneers (+1): The Bucs and Saints will fight a hard-fought battle in Mediocrity Bowl 1. PICK: Saints

Falcons @ Lions (+5): Detroit Stinks! 'Nuff Said! PICK: Falcons

Bears @ Dolphins (-13): Remeber when the Dolphins were everyone's sleeper pick for the Super Bowl? You know that was only 60 days ago? PICK: Bears

Vikings @ 49ers (+5): Wow, the Vikes were bad on Monday. Wow, the Niners were bad...all friggin' season. PICK: Vikings

Browns @ Chargers (-12.5): Shawne Merriman picked a good time to drop his appeal. First game of suspension is against the Browns. There's a reason why their jersey's are dog crap-brown! PICK: Chargers

Broncos @ Steelers (-2.5): Seriously, I don't think the Broncos played that badly last weekend. So why are they giving up points to the Steelers? I mean besides Big Ben finding new ways to try and kill himself have the Steelers done anything of note yet this year. PICK: Broncos

Colts @ Patriots (-3): Hmm, it's a big game which favors the Pats. It's regular season so it favors the Colts. I like Vinatieri in his return. PICK: Colts

Raiders @ Seahawks (-7.5): I can't believe this is a Monday nightgame. Who schedules this crap? I don't know of 10 people who will watch this. PICK: Seahawks

Does anyone know of a good website to get odds for Election Day? I wanted to post some picks on that but I couldn't find any odds. Just e-mail me if you know a site.

Thanks for reading again, and I'll do better next week.

NFL PICKS...WEEK 8

Fri, 27 Oct 2006 20:43:42 GMT

BCS Clarity and Temple Victories!

I really don't think anyone on Temple knew how to line up in victory formation, because they called a rush for the final play of their staggering upset of Bowling Green. Okay, "staggering" may be a reach, but when a team that had lost its prior 20 games pulls one out, then it's a huge upset. So, I think congratulations are in order for probably the most ill-fated team in football not named the Arizona Cardinals.

The Beyond Crappy System (BCS for short) has once again lucked out for now and it has clear and consensus #1 and #2 teams: Ohio State and Michigan. Oh yeah, one small problem...THEY PLAY EACH OTHER NOV. 18! Needless to say, it is a great possibility that either Michigan or Ohio State will fill (at least) one of the spots in the National Championship game. The rest is completely up for grabs. So, here's a pedestrian's attempt to handicap the race for the college football National Championship. But just so you know, because the BCS is such an awful system with little rhyme or reason there is little validity to this list, other than this guarantee: The two best teams in college football will NOT play each other for the National Championship. Remember its happened only 3 times since the BCS was implemented. So anyway, here's my handicap list:

1. Michigan-Ohio St. Winner: I'm no longer giving this one to Ohio St, because as you will see on Sunday. The gap between the two schools will shrink. And it is worth noting that the Computer Polls, as ridiculous as they are, are NOT based on preseason rankings. Their criteria are strictly based on game results. All but one of them has Michigan ahead of Ohio St. But for BCS purposes, this game is essentially one half of a bracket. The winner basically gets an automatic bid to the championship game. The loser of this game will likely play in the Rose Bowl, which is one hell of a consolation prize.

2. West Virginia: Out of the unbeaten teams left, WVA has possibly the toughest road left of any serious national championship contender with games against Louisville, Rutgers and Pitt. However, WVA has looked awesome this year and I mean literally. I am dumbfounded by that teams sheer speed on the field. I favor them over Louisville because they are healthy. And over Rutgers because of their great team speed. But WVA is not a sure bet. But let the fun begin on Thursday! W. VA vs. Louisville!

3. Florida: Well, they kind of fell off of the radar after their loss to Auburn, but the Gators have only that one disputed blemish and a clear shot to the SEC title game. Auburn does hold a tie-breaker against Florida and is ranked higher in the BCS. However, Auburn must win out in the SEC, and get some help because Arkansas is up one game on them AND holds the tie-breaker. Yes, that means Auburn must remain perfect AND Arkansas must lose TWO for Auburn to have a legitimate shot at the national title, because only the SEC Champion will have a legitimate shot, and right now that favors Florida.

4. Texas: Yes, Texas is back in the hunt. Even after getting shellacked at the hands of the Buckeyes on national TV, Texas has avoided coughing up another game while coming close the last two weeks. Their road includes a tough test against A&M and a trip to Kansas City for the Big 12 Championship. That title game looks a little bit easier because Nebraska (and yes I actually mentioned Nebraska in a piece about the National Championship) is no lock to get to KC after gagging against "That School whose Name I will Never Type". Anyway, Texas needs some help down the road to make a National title hope a reality.

5. Michigan-Ohio State Loser: Why not? Michigan and Ohio State are clearly the two best teams in College Football. Period. Why shouldn't the world get treated to a rematch in January on neutral ground? I know it seems odd that not only two teams from the same conference, but two arch-rivals could play each other for the National Title. But think about it. USC gagged against a weak opponent Saturday. They're done. West Virginia is no lock to win any of those three big games, which also holds true for Louisville and Rutgers. Flroida must win out in the SEC. Auburn has too much ground in the SEC to make up and I don't think they even make their conference championship. Texas has two tough games left. Beyond that, the next highest team in the rankings is Notre Dame. But would you put the Irish ahead of Michigan or Ohio State, especially since Michigan made them cry in South Bend? Hey, this scenario isn't likely but it gets more likely every week.

6. Notre Dame: They need to win out. It's just that simple. Their one-loss record is good, but it lacks luster since they were bitch-slapped by Michigan (Man I love those digs!) MSU and PSU are not as good as advertised, which will drop their computer rankings. They play a very weak schedule until USC. To be blunt, for a berth in one of the BCS bowls, the Irish must win out. One more loss and they are done. They must finish higher than 8th to get an automatic berth. They're currently 9th, with some chaos ahead of them. They have the best shot at the BCS for a team that has no chance at the National Title.

7. Auburn: I've already explained why Auburn will not appear in the National Champinoship. They need too much help. But a berth in a BCS bowl is likely especially since the field has grown to 10. They played a tough schedule and maybe Tommy Tuberville is right. The SEC may be too tough to make the National Championship. The nightmare scenario for the SEC and Auburn, would be either a Tennessee or Arkansas win in the SEC Championship. That clearly would mean no National title for the nation's most contested conference.

8. California: One loss and USC is out of the BCS? Yeah, probably! Look, Cal is undefeated in the PAC-10 and gets their chance at USC. Plus, Cal has been playing the best ball of any PAC-10 team so far this year. They are poised to win, plus they have no other big games left after that one. And that's assuming USC will not slip even more before their date with Cal. USC still has Oregon (which Cal beat) and Notre Dame sandwiching the Cal game on Nov. 18. (Hey is there something else going on that day?)

9. Boise State: I don't want to jinx these guys because it's bad enough that they have been playing with a bull's eye on their backs all season. But they are primed to join Utah as BCS BUSTERS! Because of the new rules, the Broncos will be in position this Sunday. They need to finish 12th or higher, OR finish higher than an automatic qualifier while placing in the top 16. They are currently 15th and since no one wants to win the ACC, they are in good shape. Boise State MUST take care of their own business, starting with Wednesday's date with Fresno State on the Smurf Turf! If you don't know what I'm talking about, go to the link on the right and check out the coolest stadium in college football!

10. ACC "Champion": Did you ever think a November game between Boston College and Wake Forrest would possibly decide the ACC? Welcome to the worst division in College Football! Right now, I'd take a Sun Belt team over this 12-team steamer! They simply do not deserve a BCS berth, but their entry will eliminate one of the following: Rutgers, Louisville, Tennessee, or USC. So, before someone gripes about Boise State and Notre Dame earning automatic qualifiers, please remember that there is one sopt reserved for the ACC!

Here's my NFL picks for this week. And for the Eagles fans out there, please take note. I am picking them to win outright! Okay Kool-Aid?

Texans @ Titans (-3): What a way to start off the picks! Right out of the gate! What do you get when you have two teams facing off that have a combined 3-9 record, and the team that passed on Reggie Bush? You guessed it! It's Pillow Fighting time! This game should not be televised, but if Travis Henry goes off, than it will at least be enjoyable for all 12 of the Titans fans. PICK: Titans.

Jaguars @ Eagles (-7): The Jags have a lot of key guys on the injured list, especially on the wrong side of "questionable". I just don't know if this is the bouce back game for the Birds. They've lost two consecutive games at the gun. (And I want to know why people say buzzer-beater referring to game-winning kicks. There are no buzzers in the NFL!) Plus, Jacksonville is actually going to have a QB that can throw the deep ball, now that Garrard has replaced Leftwich. Don't get me wrong, the Birds will win this game, so you can stop your hate mail, Kool-Aid! I just don't see the Eagles covering a 7-point spread this week. PICK: Jaguars (yes, only to cover!)

Falcons @ Bengals (-4): Finally, Chad Johnson is back! He's easily the most entertaining reciever in football, and he finally started trash talking again. This is not an easy game to pick because after early season success, the Bengals have gone back to the Bungles form that everyone is familiar with. I should write a column on imapct players for every team in the NFL. There are those players whose impact on their team goes way beyond their stats. Chris Henry is the Bengals impact guy. They didn't have him that past few weeks. He's back now. PICK: Bengals.

Buccaneers @ Giants (-9): The Bucs have won the last two games through a ticky-tack roughing the passer penalty, and a friggin 62-yard kick. That's how close they are to 0-6. Meanwhile, there is nothing but discontent from the Giants which all but guarantees a berth in the Super Bowl. PICK: Giants.

49ers @ Bears (-15): Fifteen points? There's no getting around the fact that the Niners stink and the Bears are playing good. But 15 points? Plus, Mike Brown is out. You know those players that have an enormous impact on their team even though they are relatively unheralded. Mike Brown is one of them. His play is absolutely vital to the Bears and their long-term success. As for this week...yeah the Niners really suck! PICK: Bears.

Cardinals @ Packers (-4): First, they blow a 20-point lead, then they cough up a game against the Raiders. Now, they're going to add to the "legend" of BrettFavre. "Don't count him out just yet!" He'll will the Pack to victory, even though he will eventually crap the bed against a real NFL-quality opponent. PICK: Packers.

Seahawks @ Chiefs (-6): First, the NFL MVP goes down. Now, Hasselback goes down. I really don't believe there is a curse on the Super Bowl losers. It must be the law of averages working itself out. To win the Super Bowl, a team needs to have a great regular season and have everyone healthy enough to play a 19 or 20 game schedule. Well, anyway, having your backup start his first game at Arrowhead isn't a good thing. Arrowhead alone should cover the spread. PICK: Chiefs.

Ravens @ Saints (-2): Here's why the Texans' fans should contemplate suicide or relocation about now. The Saints are actually able to successfully play with Deuce McAllister AND Reggie Bush on the field at the same time. So, thedecision not to go with Reggie Bush, because they have Dominick Davis seems pretty damned dumb right now. You can never, ever, ever pass on a proven playmaker. Bottomline is the Saints have done everything right in rebuilding their moribund franchise. And they have momentum going into the Dome. The Ravens, with their defense returning to form, need to playa perfect game to win this one. PICK: Saints.

Rams @ Chargers (-9.5): Didn't the Chargers just get their faces bashed in this past week? The Rams are not the same Rams team they have been for years. They are not totally pass-wacky so games out of the dome are not as daunting as before. Even though the Chargers can put the best 22 players on either side of the ball, they have a lot working against them to make a 9.5-point spread work. PICK: Rams.

Steelers @ Raiders (+9): Damn you, Raiders! As someonewho has rooted for the Chiefs for years, I wanted the Raiders to be the first 0-16 season. Damn you for showing up to play! Now, the Raiders are even less entertaining. They had a legitimate chance to go winless which created some intrigue to an otherwise steaming turd of a team. Now the Raiders are just a steaming turd! PICK: Steelers (Big Ben or no).

Jets @ Browns (-2): The Jets are on pace to become the worst 10-win team in league history. That fulfills my obligation to write something about the Jets/Browns game. PICK: Jets.

Colts @ Broncos (-2.5): Wow, a game with actual intrigue! Who woulda thunk it? The Broncos defense has been unstoppable. The Colts are undefeated. It can't be very nice out in Denver at this time of year. The Broncos have been nothing short of inept on offense. The Colts with all of their glamour, have looked rather vulnerable as their running game sputters and starts with no pattern. So, here's the prediction, the Broncos go up early and you'll hear plenty of: "IN-COM-PLETE!" PICK: Broncos.

Cowboys @ Panthers (-5): TO-NY RO-MO <<clap, clap, clap-clap-clap>>! It's really bad when you're banking on Tony Romo to save the season. Man, I just can't wait for this one. All I needis one more T.O. implosion for the impetus to call into 610 and give them my impersonation. Speaking of impersonations...I have a great idea for a Halloween costume. Pad you stomach with a pillow. Borrow your wife's or girlfriend's bra and load it with two pool balls. Color your hair white. Look miserable all the time, while being abusive about everything. Congratulations you just pulled a Bill Parcells routine. PICK: Panthers.

Patriots @ Vikings (+2): The Vikings are playing a lot like the St. Louis Cardinals. They are just doing enough. Don't get me wrong...they stink. They're not a good football team, but they are just not screwing up. They keep everything close, pressure the opponent just enough for them to blink and then POW, the next thing you know, Scott "the Scumbag" Rolen has a World Series ring. But hey, maybe this is the game that the Patriots dynasty dies! (Yes, I'm using reverse psychology!) PICK: Patriots.

Enjoy the games this weekend, and please do yourself a favor. Watch at least one of the College Football games this week on ESPN. See Fresno State @ Boise State on Wednesday for the best team you've never seen and Blue Turf! West Virginia @ Louisville has the potential for Game of the Year. And Air Force @ Army should be fun, with the Triple Option and Michie Stadium, the most beautiful stadium in the US.

Thanks for reading...see you next week.

NFL PICKS...WEEK 7

Sun, 22 Oct 2006 15:26:49 GMT

Before I get into this weeks picks, I just wanted to share a few tidbits that I picked up.

As I was getting milk at the Wawa, I saw a copy of the Philadelphia Daily News, which reported that Julius Erving was interested in buying the 76ers, which are for sale for the left-coasters who don’t know. Having Dr. J as an interested party in the 76ers proves home a point: Well, at least somebody is interested in them!

Almost two weeks after Saint Joseph’s announced their plans for improvements to Alumni Memorial Fieldhouse (one of the all-time best home-court advantages in college basketball), Michigan has announced they are planning a remodeling of Michigan Stadium. I can’t say I’m opposed to either plan, but I will say that it must be a good time to be a stadium architect. Plus, with all of those 111,000 seats in the Big House, maybe they can reconfigure the stadium to actually make some noise.

I don’t want to add myself to the long list of “outraged” sports guys writing about the Miami-Florida International brawl, but I can’t get a couple of things out of my teeth. (Insert teeth joke here.) First, why does Miami and the ACC feel one game is enough for the fugitives on Miami’s sidelines, but FIU and the Sun Belt Conference handed out indefinite suspensions. Secondly, UCONN dismissed five players for breaking curfew and buying beer to drink back in the players’ hotel room. They were DISMISSED. One game suspensions to players committing assault (some of them with weapons) is just insulting. It’s like the NFL parading around 6’7” 330 lbs. linemen that can run a 4.7 40-yard dash and declaring that there is no steroid usage in the NFL! I mean we can be easily duped, but c’mon now.

Hmm…Endy Chavez makes one of the greatest all-time catches for the Mets. Scott Rolen delivered a home run for the Cardinals. Placido Polanco hit a couple of game-winning RBIs for the Tigers. Man, it feels good to be a Phillies fan right now.

And finally, set the date. November 18, 2006. The world may well end. It’s one thing when maybe the largest rivalry in college football goes off. It’s one thing when a berth in the Rose Bowl is at stake. It’s one thing when national title chances are at stake. Ladies and Gentlemen, Michigan and Ohio State are likely to play a “#1 vs. #2” game against each other! The anticipation is usually palpable for this game. I have experience with big rivalries (the Holy War, the Big 5, Hill/L-Ville), but this is a completely different thing. In fact, it already has a nickname: Armageddon.

Here are this week’s picks (remember these are just for fun. DO NOT gamble on these.)

Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay (+5.5): Brian Westbrook’s knee frightens the hell out of me. Donte Stallworth needs to get on the damned field. With both guys playing, the Birds should easily cover a team that has seemingly lost all speed on defense. PICK: EAGLES.

Jacksonville @ Houston (+9.5): Is it just me or does Byron Leftwich look like the kid who played Fat Albert in the movie? PICK: Jaguars.

Pittsburgh @ Atlanta (+2.5): I’m torn, because I don’t believe in Ben Roethlisberger or the Steelers. Yet, I think it’s time to finally come to a conclusion. Michael Vick is a bad quarterback! He’s elusive and dynamic, but overall as the distributor of the offense, he stinks. He can’t hit open receivers. The only thing he is good for is running. So, why doesn’t Jim Mora Jr. just make him a running back, throw in Matt Schaub, and give that a whirl. Because, Mike Vick under center just doesn’t work. PICK: Steelers.

New England @ Buffalo (+5.5): This was a close game earlier in the year, and it had all the makings of the “team on the rise versus a team on the decline” game. Now it has all the makings of an “I’m gonna break my foot off up in yo’” game. PICK: Patriots

Carolina @ Cincinnati (-3): I’m waiting for the real Bengals to show up. They looked unbeatable and then Tom Brady stole their mojo. Now they’re losing to the freakin’ Bucs and Chad Johnson has all but disappeared. Shouldn’t they be doing better than this? Meanwhile, I just can’t get a read on the Panthers, so I’m sure to lose this one no matter who I pick. PICK: Panthers.

Green Bay @ Miami (-5): I can’t ever remember the NFL schedule producing three crappy games in one week. Meanwhile, I second the Sports Guy. If Brett Favre loses to a team led by Joey Harrington, he should immediately retire. PICK: Packers.

Detroit @ NY Jets (-3.5): The second of three crappy games. The only thing that would make this game worse is if it’s called by Dick Enberg. PICK: Jets.

San Diego @ Kansas City (+5.5): Okay, KC gets absolutely annihilated by the Steelers and now they are only 5.5-point dogs to a team that is decidedly better than the Steelers? What gives? PICK: Chargers.

Denver @ Cleveland (+4.5): The Broncos have two big games coming up, so I doubt very strongly if they will show anything. It will be a vanilla game plan. Denver will just do enough to win this one, so they might not cover. I’m just counting on Cleveland’s ineptitude to take care of the outcome. PICK: Broncos

Minnesota @ Seattle (-6.5): I think the wheels fell off of Minnesota, and they really aren’t as good as their early season success. I like Seattle’s game plan by going pass wacky is a good idea with Shaun Alexander on the shelf. PICK: Seahawks

Washington @ Indianapolis (-8.5): I still can't tell if Indy is any good or they are just playing teams at the right time. I mean they get Jacksonville when they were down. They got the Giants before they started bickering to each other. Either way, for some reason I don't think they will cover against a team that isn't quite as bad as everyone thinks. PICK: Redskins.

Arizona @ Oakland (+3): You already know that answer to this question but hey I’ll ask it anyway. What do you get when you have two team collide, that have both blown 18 point leads at home? THE PILLOW FIGHT OF THE WEEK!!! This is one of the two games left that Oakland has a chance to win. Here’s hoping more weeks of Chasing Futility! PICK: Cardinals.

NY Giants @ Dallas (-3): Just as I suspected, the Team Obliterator had a great game and was not able to force a loss to the team that passed up on Reggie Bush. And I don’t think he will strike this week either. It will be further down the line when T.O. makes his mark and completely sabotages the Boys. Besides, the Giants absolutely stink on Monday night. PICK: Cowboys.

BREAKING NEWS: As I was typing, the Flyers announced the resignation of Bob Clarke and the canning of Ken Hitchcock. Pat Stevens was named as head coach and Paul Holmgren is the acting GM. Frankly, the firing of Bob Clarke was a long time coming. He has crapped the bed as the GM for years now. He ran Eric Lindros out of town without a championship, he acquired a convicted rapist, resisted European-born players even as they were sweeping the league and put together another goon-special team after the rule changes emphasized the need for fast players. He has ridden the glory of winning the only Stanley Cups in franchise history (30 years ago, mind you) for way, way, way too long. So Bob, don’t let the door hit you ass on the way out.

NFL PICKS...WEEK 6

Fri, 13 Oct 2006 20:08:03 GMT

Breaking the Roy Kramer Code

At approximately 4:15 EDT today, the first in a series of Bowl Championship Series standings will be announced. The BCS has always struck a nerve with me, since College Football has been producing National Champions for at least a hlaf-century before the first Super Bowl. Which is why I find a system that has been in place for only eight years claiming to provide the college football fans with a game between the top two ranked teams, a bit ridculous. Especially, because the end product of the BCS rarely produces a true matchup of the two best teams! In fact, it has produced exactly 3 dispute-free national championship games.

Since, the field of possible teams that can earn a BCS berth has grown to 10, I will this year, track which teams should be playing during the first week of January and more importantly for the National Champoinship. But for review, let's go over the BCS rules, that have been modified for this year from the original version written by the BCS Committee first headed by former SEC Comissioner Roy Kramer.

The conference champions of the six BCS leagues (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, PAC-10, SEC) are all automatically qualified and reserve a spot in one of the 5 BCS Bowl Games (Orange, Sugar, Fiesta, Rose, and National Championship).

The Committee will then select 4 additional at-large teams based off of BCS Standings, with some guidelines. All qualifying team must have at least 9 wins. Any team that ranks 4th or higher is automatically qualified for a BCS berth (Kansas St. Rule). Any conference champion of a non-BCS Conference must finish the regular season in the top 16 to be eligible OR finish in the top 12 for an automatic berth (Utah Rule). Notre Dame must finish the season 8th or better to earn an at large bid. All rankings are based off of a formula that includes the Harris Poll, Coaches Poll, eight computer rankings, strength of schedule, and possibily the equation for Einstein's theory of relativity. It produces an equation that makes the calculation of the NFL QB rating system look simple.

Anyway, here's my take on which teams are right now in the drivers' seats for one of the BCS bowls, plus some unlikely and slightly off of the radar teams that have a chance to be BCS Busters!

National Title Game: Ohio St.vs. Southern Cal: I know this isn't very creative but really the likelihood of a Michigan/Ohio St. National Championship Game is off the charts unlikely, because only one team will finish undefeated. So any scenario that has UM and OSU in the final game MUST include a loss from USC and probably losses from every other team in the current Top 10. Now, I think Michigan and Ohio St. are right now the two best teams in the country, but they will not be playing in Arizona on Jan 8th.

BCS Automatic Qualifiers: Florida (SEC), Georgia Tech (ACC), West Virginia (Big East), Texas (Big 12): These teams are currently in first place in their conferences at this time, or are at least tied for it. These schools will change until December, but right now, this is how they stand.

At-Large Bids: Notre Dame, Louisville, Michigan and Auburn: Selecting Louisville is the biggest stretch, but they have a very difficult remainder of their schedule with two more games against Top 25 competition and another with Pitt who will be in the Top 25 soon. They have the longest odds of keeping their spot. Notre Dame has the best odds since they are ranked 8 and 9 in the respective polls, with a strong opening strength of schedule and a realitvely easy closing run up to the Glamour Game in LA. Remember, ND must only get to eight to qualify. Auburn will get in if they hold serve, because the SEC is overrated and their SOS will reflect the overrating. Michigan is in as long as they stay undefeated until Nov. 18. Even if they lose to Ohio St., they should still get in via an at large bid, because a loss to the overall #1 team shouldn't reflect too poorly.

BCS Busters!

Boise State: The Broncos of the Smurf Turf have a clear shot at the BCS. They only need to get to number 12 in the rankings and of all Division I teams, they have the greatest odds of finishing undefeated. Their only knock is SOS, which is underrated since they beat a PAC-10 opponent and play in a very competitive conference. The WAC has no cupcakes like Illinois, Miss St., Stanford, or Duke. They will also gain on the opponents since they will gain ground on every loss from every other team in contention.

Rutgers: Don't laugh! Rutgers has a chance to go head-to-head with Pitt, Louisville, and West Virginia. Their defense is stifling. They can play ball. The odds are they would have to win their conference, which means going undefeated. It would be tough sledding but they are a good team that could bust the BCS.

Wake Forest, Boston College, Clemson: It's anybody's game in the Big East! Well, anybody's but Miami, Va. Tech and FSU. Some new blood in the BCS. It's about damn time.

Anyway, i'll update my BCS predictions periodically to accompany my NFL Picks, because, hey, College Ball is cool! Here's my Pro Picks. And, Kool-Aid 1, I'll figure out my record next week, so stop complaining!

Bengals @ Buccaneers (+6): It seems like every year there is a team in the NFC, that has a great, but overachieveing season, that culminates in a total collapse the next year. The Bucs are this year's "Not Team". Their defense is only a carcass of the team that closed the Vet. The Cadillac won't start. Their starting QB is missing body parts. Things are not looking good. And after Cincy's "fraidy cat" performance against the Pats, when they punted in opposition territory at home; the only reason I am picking the Bungles are the Bucs' woes. PICK: Bengals.

Titans @ Redskins (-10): I don't think people are making enough of the Letdown Game possibilities for the Titans. Do you honestly think they can come back after almost beating Peyton Manning, and win a relatively meaningless non-conference game against an underachieveing Washington team? Besides, the Skins must be seathing at the mouth after they were emasculated in New York. PICK: Redskins.

Texans @ Cowboys (-13): The Team Obliterator (T.O.) can try all he wants, but there is no way the Gals lose this game. Even the Team Obliterator cannot force a loss to the franchise that passed on Reggie Bush. But hey things are looking up! Mario Williams finally recorded a sack. PICK: Cowboys.

Bills @ Lions (+1): I had to confer with Chad on this one, but we have a consensus. When you add the Lions, the Bills, and Jon Kitna, you get THE PILLOW FIGHT OF THE WEEK! Is there anyone who will actually watch this game? I mean even the people of Detroit won't be watching, because they'll be tending to their post-AL Pennant hangovers. PICK: Bills

Seahawks @ Rams (+3): There is something about the Seahawks that just doesn't have me believing in them. I don't kow what it is, but I also don't know why I keep putting my fainth in the Rams. Oh, team of little defense. I think this is the game where the Seahawks lose total control of the NFC West. PICK: Rams.

Giants @ Falcons (-3): Atlanta averages 234 yards per game on the ground, while the Giants have a reputation for being weak against the run. Does this seem like a perfect storm to you or what? PICK: Falcons.

Eagles @ Saints (+3): Why does it seem like every time the Eagles play a team with a dynamic player, everyone gets all geeked up over stopping him. When the Eagles played the Falcons in 2004, everyone was afraid that Mike Vick would run all over the place and cause havoc. Just make him a pocket passer and he's harmless. It's the same thing with Reggie Bush. Don't try and punish him, just contain him. Besides, I think New Orleans should be a little more concerned with stopping Brian Westbrook. Nobody has mentioned him yet. PICK: Eagles.

Panthers @ Ravens (-3): This is another one of those games (as it seems like every game for the Ravens is) when I find myself asking which teams offense has the better shot against the opposing defense. On paper this looks to be a low scoring game since both defenses are phenominal. I just think the Ravens have a better chance of scoring against the Panthers rather than vice versa. PICK: Ravens.

Dolphins @ Jets (-2): This was my backup for Pillowfight of the Week. I had at least a little faith in the Jets, until they absolutely crapped the bed against Jacksonville. The Dolphins have Daunte Culpepper on the roster and Joey Harrington actually gives them a better chance of winning. So what is that actual improvement? None to slim? By the way, I love how the Dolphins were everyone's chic pick to go to the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season. Andnow no one is mentioning that they picked this teeming pile of stink to win the Super Bowl. PICK: Jets.

Chargers @ 49ers (+10): Marty Schottenheimer took the reins off of Phillip Rivers and look what happened. The Chargers looked great in their last two games. And I would like to thank the 49ers for keeping alive the most intriguing chase in sports last week. But all gratitude aside, they have no chance this week. PICK: Chargers.

Chiefs @ Steelers (-6.5): Remember when the Steelers won the Super Bowl? Did that actually happen? We might possibly be looking at the worst ever performance by a defending champion, that did not purposefully purge its roster. Was the Bus really that special to that team? How can Big Ben be this bad? I mean he's thrown 9 ints in his last 4 games (and one of those games was the Super Bowl!). Really I just want to know when I can start throwing out the "deal-with-the-devil" jokes that we all threw at Kurt Warner when he was alive. But as stinky as the Steelers are right now, their opponents are led by a Huard. PICK: Steelers.

Raiders @ Broncos (-15): This is how bad the Raiders are. The Broncos average under 13 points per game. They are favored by 15 against the Raiders. Will the Raiders be deducted points because they are single-handedly lowering the quality of the NFL? This is the same team that let the Browns (yes, the BROWNS) stage an 18-point second half comeback IN THE BLACK HOLE! Luckily for Oakland, they do have the Cardinals on the schedule. PICK: Broncos.

Bears @ Cardinals (+10.5): This is the Monday night game? PICK: Bears.

NFL PICKS...WEEK 5

Sat, 07 Oct 2006 19:14:21 GMT

I wanted to make sure I got these finished before noon today, so I've put my football notes on hold. I'll post them with the picks tonight, so you'll have something to read tomorrow when you're checking how wrong my picks will be. Thanks

Titans @ Colts (-18.5): I think it's now time to start keeping an eye on two quests for complete ineptitude. Now, an 18.5 point line is a bit ridiculous. I don't recall seeing a line that big before that didn't involve Temple (further notes below). However, it's pretty obvious where that line came from. The Titans have averaged 11.75 points per game, while they have given up 30.25. Yes, math fans, that equals out to an 18.5 average margin of defeat. And considering that they are playing the team that has scored the most points in the NFL on the road, you can kinda sorta tell which direction my pick will head. PICK: Colts.

Redskins @ Giants (-5): The Giants are heading for an implosion. The proverbial handwriting is already on the wall. But every time I think the Giants are done, they make a surge. It's like the infamous Jim Fassel "chips-on-the-table" moment. They're like crab grass pulled not by the root but by the other thing. However, I think the Skins have hit a groove. Yeah, it's quite possible they hit the Jags on their absolute worst possible day, but I think the game in Houston gave them the opportunity to practice on some weak opposition. PICK: Redskins.

Lions @ Vikings (-6.5): I don't think either team is very good here. The Vikings are only a couple of goof-ups away from being winless, just like the Lions. So, I really don't think the 6.5 point line is justified. Either way, I'll be happy not to watch this crap-fest of a game. PICK: Lions.

Buccaneers @ Saints (-6.5): Hmmm...Okay, we have a team coming off of an emotional loss, set-up perfectly for a letdown game. We also have a rookie quarterback (from Toledo, home of the Glass Bowl) playing on the road in a very, very intimidating place right now. I just don't see how the Saints can possibly lose this game at home against a team that is going downhill quicker than Guns 'n' Roses after the Spaghetti Incident. PICK: Saints.

Rams @ Packers (+3): Some call me Nostradamus. Some call me Nostra-dumb-ass! But at least I'm right about one thing: Brett Favre. As proved on Monday night, he is mortgaging his team's future. Regardless, they are a bad team and basically have no prospects of improvement with Favre getting older by the hour. And, believe it or not, but the Rams actually looked like the Rams last week. PICK: Rams.

Dolphins @ Patriots (-10): Okay, the Pats proved me wrong for the first time this year. Obviously, they are not dead men walking, even though the Bengals did everything to help their cause. But how far can a team fall? The Dolphins were trendy Super Bowl picks no less than one month ago. Now, they are the only team thus far to lose to the team that passed up on drafting Reggie Bush. Seriuosly, how bad can it get? Oh wait, I know. Jo-ey! Jo-ey! Jo-ey! PICK: Patriots.

Bills @ Bears (-10): Chad is a Bears' fan. He said, "You know, Rex Grossman, is...err...umm...a pretty good...uhh...<gulp>...quarterback." Well, now I'm sold. With that vote of confidence I have no choice but to pick the Bears. But to be honest, this defense once carried Jim Miller to the playoffs. PICK: Bears.

Browns @ Panthers (-8): Making an 18-point second-half comeback is impressive. Doing it against the Raiders is less impressive. Falling behind 21-3 to the Raiders? AHHHHH! What in the hell? And I should thank the Panthers for saving my pick last week, by giving away an end of game touchdown to the Saints which helped them cover. PICK: Panthers.

Jets @ Jaguars (-6.5): Either the Jets are better than I though, the Colts are worse than I thought, or it's a combination of both. Either way, it doesn't excuse the Jags for giving it up to the Redskins like a halfway house hooker. I can't believe that is the same group that completely shut down the Steelers. I mean, I know a team can suffer injuries but 36 points? C'mon. PICK: Jets.

Chiefs @ Cardinals (+3.5): And the Matt Leinert era begins. Other than that I have nothing else to say about this game. PICK: Chiefs.

Raiders @ 49ers (-3): All we need now are half-naked sorrority girls and John Belushi and we've got it. It's The Pillow Fight of the Week! After a complete and total gag job last week, Chasing Futility is into it's fourth week. Another quote from Chad regarding the prospects for an 0-16 season: "And it couldn't happen to a nicer guy than Al Davis." (Yes, I know...two Chad quotes in the same cloumn. It's been a very slow week.) PICK: 49ers.

Cowboys @ Eagles (-2): I just can't do this now. I must save it for last.

Steelers @ Chargers (-3): Okay, you know those early-season, must-win games. This is one of them. The Chargers should win this game, but at some point "Marty-ball" needs to be scrapped and Phillip Rivers needs to take charge and spread the field. They just can't keep it close to the vest and expect to win every game, by heaping it on the defense. Speaking of the defense, I think that the game will be decided by the Chargers defense. If they show up and hold a lead for the entire game, it will go the way of the Bolts. But this isn't a slam dunk. PICK: Chargers.

Ravens @ Broncos (-4): Yes, the Ravens Defense is back. Yes, Ray Lewis is currently the most influential defender in the game. But, here's one stat that tells you the direction of my pick. The Broncos defense has given up exactly 1 (one) touchdown. So, here's the question. Do you trust Steve McNair to take that Ravens offense and beat the Broncos in Denver by at least two field goals? PICK: Broncos.

Okay, for real now...Cowboys @ Eagles (-2): There is no team in football that I loathe more than the Cowboys. I can't stand Texas, their owner, their stadium, their players, their uniforms, their cheerleaders...well...uhhh....yeah even the cheerleaders! This is the city that killed JFK! Just like the Boston Celtics, New York Yankees, New Jersey Devils and Villanova University, I will never like this team. Yet there are many factors that are causing me to pick the Cowboys over the Eagles. First, Philly fans are obsessed with T.O. to the point that they would actually create enough negative energy to thwart the Eagles. Secondly, the Eagles have not played anyone even close to the quality of the Cowboys yet. Thirdly, and most importantly, the number is zero. That is the amount of sacks that the Eagles accumulated against the tremendous suck factory that is Green Bay. The only hope for the Eagles is that they were actually keeping things close to the vest in order to hide things from Dallas. Otherwise, it will be a long afternoon in South Philly. PICK: C...I can't even type it.

NFL PICKS...WEEK 4

Sat, 30 Sep 2006 03:42:33 GMT

I reference the Tuesday Morning Quarterback written by Gregg Easterbrook every now and again. He gives very funny nicknames to the majority of the NFL teams, which are absolutely hilarious. But he also, makes some very insightful comments about the games he watches and the pivotal plays that decide them. Well, I wrote down some notes on a couple of the games that I saw this weekend, and sure enough, he quoted the same things I saw on two of the games. But here’s my take on the week that was and my picks for this week.

Kicking’s for Sissies!

At the end of the 1st half of the Eagles-49ers game, San Francisco was driving down the field and in Eagles territory. The Niners faced a fourth down with less than 30 seconds left in the half. In trotted the punting unit to a chorus of boos. I didn’t write “game over” in my book like TMQ but I did turn off the game and proceed to the mall knowing that the game was well in hand. The score was 24-3 at the time. What did they have to lose by going for it? The Eagles were just going to take a knee and go into the locker room up by 3 TDs. Going for it and failing would have been a signal to his team that the coach has not given up on them. Alas, the football gods did not favor the meek!

In that same spirit, Joe Paterno, down 14-3 faced a fourth and goal in the fourth quarter of the Penn St.-Ohio St. game in Columbus. Penn St. was just penalized 5 yards after being stopped 3 times inside the 5-yard line. In trots the field goal unit to cut the lead to 8 points. Now, fundamentally, it was sound strategy. They turned a two-score deficit to a one-score deficit. But, even a failed fourth down attempt would have given his charges the signal that the old, old, old man was still trying to win the game. Instead, the next two Penn St. possessions resulted in 14 points for the Buckeyes.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Auburn took the first possession of the second half in their game against South Carolina (the real USC) and marched down the field for a field goal. On the ensuing kickoff, the place-kicker lofted an onside kick to the far sideline, which Auburn recovered. The Tigers marched down the field, maintained possession for the entire third quarter, and finally scored on the first play of the fourth quarter. That was 31 straight plays with the ball. As is always said, the best defense in football is to not give the other team the ball. South Carolina mounted a comeback, but did not have enough time to score the second touchdown.

If I were coach, we’d all learn the rules and know what the situation is.

It would be helpful to today’s student-athletes if they were taught about game situations. Boston College led NC State 15-10 in the fourth quarter. Facing 4th and 2 at the Wolf Pack 27-yard line with 46 seconds left, Boston College ran the ball with the hopes of icing the game. Normally, I am in favor of this aggressive strategy, except when you already have the lead. If they punted or attempted a field goal, they could have either pushed the lead to 8, which would have required a two-point conversion if NC State would score a touchdown. If they punted, they would have at least, forced NC State to go 80 yards for a touchdown. If they missed the field goal attempt they would have killed at least 6 seconds and NC State would still have had to go 73 yards. What happened? BC ran the ball, and lost a yard!

Nevertheless, the game was well in hand. Tuesday Morning Quarterback notes that the there were 46 seconds left and NC State needed to travel 72 yards. Where do you think NC State would go? Perhaps up the field? So, whatever, NC State starts heading up the field. Here’s where my problem begins. In College Football, the penalty for pass interference is 15 yards. So, if you tackle a receiver attempting to catch a ball in the end zone, the penalty is only 15 yards. If the defensive back covering Brian Dunlap, the player who caught the game-winning touchdown with only 8 seconds, would have simply thrown him to the ground, NC State would have had to run another play from the 19 yards line and with only 8 seconds. That leaves NC State with only one play to get a touchdown with no room for error. Yes, by looking at it, there were many instances where BC lost the game, but don’t you think the defensive coordinator would have told his guys: “Look, they’re heading downfield so don’t get beat long, and for God’s sake, don’t let them catch the damned ball, I don’t care what you have to do.”

Anyway, onto this week’s picks:

Colts @ Jets (+9): I generally tend to keep away from teams that are giving away too many points on the road. Plus, the Jets have played tough games this year, but there is just something I do not buy about the Jets. Maybe, it’s just their history of being a decent team in the regular season and then crapping the bed in big games. Plus, it’s a meaningless regular season game, so the Colts will be in top form for it. PICK: Colts.

Chargers @ Ravens (+2.5): This is a very overrated matchup. First, neither team has really played anyone good. Dominating crappy opposition is not a prerequisite for being a good team. If you take a look at the degrees of dominance, the Chargers are by far and to this point in the season the most dominating team. I think the Chargers defense is better and their offense really hasn’t shown anything yet. PICK: Chargers.

Vikings @ Bills (-1): Why are the Vikings getting a bad rap? They have been playing sound defense and capitalizing on mistakes. I don’t think the Vikings are very good, but they are playing the way a crappy team should. Limit your mistakes and don’t do anything stupid. The Vikings are a very well-coached team and Buffalo has coughed up too many winnable situations for me to have faith in. PICK: Vikings.

Cowboys @ Titans (+9.5): Kool-Aid 1: “Hey, when you do you picks this week, you gotta say something about T.O. and taking too many pills!” Okay, blah-blah-blah-T.O. Blah-blah-blah-blah-PILLS. Blah-blah-blah-blah-too damn many. Blah-blah-blah-blah-MORON! PICK: Cowboys.

49ers @ Chiefs (-7): This game has pillow-potential as their combined 1-4 record would suggest. But K.C. isn’t a really bad team. Their defense hasn’t been good since the death of Derrick Thomas. But they do have two marquee players on offense. The 49ers are surprisingly not as bad as I thought they were. Now, they did get slaughtered by the Eagles last week, but the Chiefs are not the Eagles. If both teams were healthy I would take the Niners to win. But since they are not, I’m just looking for them to cover, even though a member of the Huard family will be involved. PICK: 49ers.

Saints @ Panthers (-7.5): Okay, let me get this straight. The Saints dismantled the Falcons on Monday night and haven’t lost yet this year. The Panthers were absolutely bludgeoned by that same Falcons team and barely escaped with one win so far this year. So why on earth are the Panthers favored by 7.5? I mean they almost lost to a guy with a ruptured spleen. Yet, why do I feel like I’m getting suckered in this one? PICK: Saints.

Cardinals @ Falcons (-7): I don’t think I have ever heard of a team reacting well to the head coach going to the press and dangling the starting QB’s job in front of him. If Denny Green wants to dangle jobs, how about the jobs of the O-Line coach and the O-Line? Edgerrin James is still a good back and he’s averaging 3.4 ypc. Can a brotha get a blocka? PICK: Falcons.

Dolphins @ Texans (+3.5): Maybe, this is the game that everything turns around for Daunte Culpepper. And did you ever think you would hear any crowd chant for Joey Harrington? And I pick this week as the week you will start hearing the Reg-gie, Reg-gie chants. After all, when you are a franchise dumb enough to pass on Reggie Bush, you deserve to have your fans turn on you. All 12 of them. PICK: Dolphins.

Lions @ Rams (-5.5): It’s the return of Mike Martz to St. Louis! HIDE! He may officially go crazy. Okay, I know he’s always been crazy, but I mean he’s gonna go T.O. in a pharmacy crazy! (There! Are you happy Steve?) PICK: Rams.

Patriots @ Bengals (-6): You know, I keep waiting for the Pats to start playing like the Pats. It looked like they were playing down to their opposition, and then they got shish-kabobbed by Denver. So, I started thinking, “Are the Pats ever gonna come back?” I mean every time I started writing these guys off they come back and make me look like an idiot. So, here’s your chance Mr. Brady! Prove me wrong again, because I think you guys stink! The dynasty is dead! Finished! Morte! And wouldn’t it be the dagger to lose to the hands of the Cinci-naughty Bengals. It’s like a torch-passing, but without the good-natured chumminess. Sunday is the day the torch gets ripped from the Patriots! Well, at least until they prove me wrong again. PICK: Bengals.

Jaguars @ Redskins (+3): The Redskins are dead men walking. Yes, the Jags are coming off of a terrible letdown game, and Brunell set an NFL record with 22-straight completions, but it was against the 1-AA Texans. Let’s just be real. There is no way that Washington comes out of this game with a season intact. They are done! Hell, even Byron Leftwich can’t throw this one away. PICK: Jaguars.

Browns @ Raiders (+3): If you have the words “Cleveland Browns” and “road favorites” in the same sentence without the words “not”, “never” or “breaking the seventh seal of the apocalypse”…then you have THE PILLOW FIGHT OF THE WEEK! So really, if the Browns do win this, I’m officially starting the 0-16 watch for Oakland. I’ll even give it one of those cheesy ESPN taglines: CHASING FUTILITY. PICK: Browns.

Seahawks @ Bears (-3.5): So, the curse has struck again. Madden-cover-boy, Shaun Alexander goes down with a broken foot. I think this curse is real, so I’m starting a movement. Hey EA Sports! T.O. for 07! It would rid football of the two biggest jackasses for the season, since it would cause Tuna’s head to explode. Anyway, I think the Seahawks played well enough last week and Rex Grossman was sketchy enough to make this an upset. PICK: Seahawks.

Packers @ Eagles (-11): At least, we will all be spared the man-crush that John Madden has on Brett Favre. No more “Brett Favre is such a warrior” crap. Brett Favre is an egomaniac that cost at least one coach his job, and is costing a franchise valuable time to groom his successor, Aaron Rogers. He’s a schmuck. He wasn’t even good in “There’s Something About Mary” (and yes that’s back to back weeks with Mary references). The Birds must and will punish them. PICK: Eagles.

AND FINALLY…

Will TEMPLE Cover?

NO!

But things are looking up for the Broad Street Bums! They actually scored a touchdown! And it only took them 3 hours, 34 minutes, 7 seconds and an untimed overtime period to finally cross the opponent’s goal line. They also upped their points-per-game average to over 2! This should get the Owls properly pumped up for their trip to Nashville to take on the Commodores of Vanderbilt. The line is 34 and I don’t even think the suck-factory of Vanderbilt athletics can screw this one up.

Next week, more useless football info.

Thanks again for reading and I’ll do better next time.

NFL Picks...WEAK 3

Fri, 22 Sep 2006 22:43:39 GMT

Old Rule!

There are a few rules that I have learned to abide by in the course of my life. They make life easier and have helped me out many times. I only bring this up because I know of two people that broke one of my rules for sports and for gambling.

DO NOT ANGER THE FOOTBALL GODS!

Steve (who I refer to as Kool-Aid 1), sent me a boastful text at halftime of the Eagles-Giants game. With the Birds comfortably ahead the words, "How about them Eagles!" flashed on my cell phone. Later after the Giants cut the Eagles once mighty 17-point lead to 3, I told my lovely wife about the score. She said, "Oh crap, I already circled them", which is her method of tracking the winners for the family pool. After I scolded her for tempting fate, I chalked up the win for the Giants (speaking of which I am surprised I didn't hear from Buttafucco on that one) even though the Eagles were still winning. You see, I am sure that Kool-Aid drinking Eagles fans were already booking flights to Miami, thus angering the Football Gods and creating an apocalyptic collapse.

So please, for the love of God, do not assume the ending of any football game (unless it prominently involves Art Shell and/or any team that passes on Reggie Bush).

New Rule

Also, in College Football, there is controversy surrounding Instant Replay and the Oklahoma-Oregon game. So I guess the world did go on after Michigan gave Notre Dame the ass-kicking they so richly deserved! (Sorry, I had to do it.) Anyway, Sooners coach, Bob Stoops said that he wouldn't complain about the call, and without missing a beat has ceaselessly whined and complained about the call. He has threatened never to play in a PAC-10 stadium ever again. He followed that up by dropping to the floor, kicking and screaming until he got the cereal with the toy inside. Look, I'm an only-child so I'm an expert on bratty and whiny behavior. So someone please give back Bob Stoops his binky and tell him to shut the hell up. Although they start with the same letter, winning should never be replaced by whining. If his defense would have stopped Oregon at any point in the game, the replay would have never been an issue.

So here's the Bob Stoops Rule: MILLIONAIRES AND PEOPLE WHO GET A FREE EDUCATION IN EXCHANGE FOR 12 WEEKS OF ATHLETICISM CANNOT SERIOUSLY WHINE ABOUT ANYTHING!

Okay, onto this week's picks...Last week's records: 7-8 against spread, 12-4 pick'em. Records for the season: 18-13 against spread, 23-9 pick'em.

And, yes, I know that those numbers do not match up, which is why I am borrowing a rule from Bill Simmons: AS ALWAYS, I AM AN IDIOT. It seems that I forgot to make a pick for the Seattle-Arizona game last week, which really throws my whole promise to make picks for every game this season. I'll try not to miss any games this week.

Jets @ Bills (-5.5): The Jets have had a very promising start to the season. They shellacked the Titans and hung tough against the Patriots. Meanwhile, the Bills blew the game against the Pats, and took those frustrations out on the Dolphins. So, that leaves us pretty much even right? Uh...look I'd like to think in this era of parity, that matching 1 and 1 records would mean relative equailty. But taking a look at the wins suggests that the Bills actaully had to do more than just show up to beat the Dolphins, which is more than anyone can say about the Titans. plus, it's in Buffalo. PICK: Bills.

Bengals @ Steelers (-2): Last year, the Bengals came into Pittsburgh and bitch-slapped the eventual Super Bowl champions. Truthfully the Bengals have not been challenged, while the Stillers have been nothing but challenged. I like the Bengals in this game if everyone is healthy, which is not the case. Don't let the Steelers' pathetic performance on monday night fool you. The Jacksonville defense can be that good. Cincinnati's defense can't. PICK: Steelers.

Jaguars @ Colts (-7): This is my trap game. I watched both teams this season and I'm thinking thsi line is way off. The Jags defense is better than a 7-point line. And Indy can't run the ball. But then I think to last year, when everyone was waiting for Jacksonville to stand up to the Colts and they crapped the bed. The Jags have played over-their-heads defense for the last 7 quarters, while the Colts just fought their tomato can opponent, getting ready for another heavyweight test. PICK: Colts.

Titans @ Dolphins (-11): I don't like the Dolphins one bit. They look like the Eagles, you know, just good enough to let you down. Now, what does it tell you about the Titans, because I don't think they can cover an 11-point spread against a mediocre team? PICK: Dolphins.

Redskins @ Texans (+4): What do you get when you have two teams that probably would have some trouble scoring against Temple? Yep, you guessed it. THE PILLOW FIGHT OF THE WEEK! Look, both of these teams suck. I'm only picking Washington, because one of these teams is so stupid that they actually passed on Reggie Bush. PICK: Redskins.

Bears @ Vikings (+3): Frankly, I don't know how the Vikes keep winning. That's why I can never pick them. There is no logical way they should have beaten Carolina, other than a John Fox-brain fart. The Bears have pounded weak opponents and face a tough test. I won't be surprised if the Bears win, but I'm trying to reverse some bad karma here. PICK: Vikings.

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+3): Oooo, I hope Chucky benches Chris Simms during a broadcast that Phil Simms is covering. Probably won't be this week. But guess what...Steve Smith is back. Steve Smith is back. PICK: Panthers.

Packers @ Lions (-7): Wait a second, we have two PILLOW FIGHTS OF THE WEEK! Wow, it's like a double-header of sucky football. All we need now are people on each side who don't know when to shut up. Hey look there's Brett Favre and Roy Williams! Hey, it's one in the morning and you expect me to actually think about the Packers and Lions? PICK: Packers.

Ravens @ Browns (+6.5): You know, if the Ravens D wasn't prominently involved we would have a trifecta of pillow fights. Again, there is nothing respectable about this game. PICK: Ravens.

Rams @ Cardinals (-4.5): Am I missing something here? We're talking about the Arizona Cardinals right? Favored by 4.5? I know they played the Seahawks tough and won a shootout against the Niners, but we are still talking about the Cardinals. PICK: Rams.

Giants @ Seahawks (-3.5): The QB matchup is pretty even. I don't trust either guy. The Giants have a better D. The Seahawks are still the team to beat in my eyes in the NFC, but something seems missing about them. Oh yeah, where the hell is Shaun Alexander? Was Steve Hutchinson really that important to them? And why do the Giants have to travel to Seattle two years in a row? And why am I asking rhetorical questions? PICK: Giants.

Eagles @ 49ers (+6): This little anecdote wil tell you what I think about this game. As some of you know, just like Mary, my lovely wife is a Niners girl. Plus, since she angered the Football Gods, she's a little irate at the Eagles for proving me right. So tonight she said that she is gonna laugh when the Niners kick the crap out of the Eagles. I then asked, "So, did you pick the Niners?" "No", she meekly replied. Yeah that's what I thought too. PICK: Eagles.

Bronocs @ Patriots (-7): Wow, where to start. I think it's pretty conclusive that the Pats are definately the most overhyped 2-0 team (New Orleans is getting press for other things, their 2-0 is a gift of scheduling.) Things are just not well with them. Meanwhile, the fanbase in Denver is about ready to crap its collective pants over the whole Jake Plummer/Jay Cutler thing. Look, I think Plummer is getting a bad rap. He has a good record and when he is not forced to take over the game, he is extremely effective. When he has to take over games and win it with his arm, then the interceptions go up as they do with every other quarterback in the league. No one has a good TD/INT ratio when he is forced to throw every down to get his team in the game. Plummer is just a former Cardinal and is dealing with being the poster child for that moribund franchise. PICK: Broncos.

Falcons @ Saints (+4): I am not getting on the emotional bandwagon. It's great that the Saints are off to a good start. It's great that Reggie Bush is so exciting. It's great that the Superdome is open again. But, this is about gambling and you can never gamble with your heart. PICK: Falcons.

WILL TEMPLE COVER?: The Owls just about set an NCAA record for futility by slugging it out for matching 62-0 poundings, and in the process blowing 40-plus point spreads. Wow, on the season Temple has been outscored 133-3. Now they face one of the Directional Michigan school of the mighty, mighty MAC. Temple is giving 28 to the Western Michigan Broncos out of Kalamazoo, MI. Needless to say, I have no real reason to go with the Owls since they have not even had a player cross the goal line yet this year. But here's to hoping I'm wrong.

Sorry for the late post this week. Thanks again for reading and I'll do better next week.