The Maverick Conservative

The media is trumpeting a Zogby poll showing MIke Huckabee THIRD nationally, behind Giuliani and a fading Thompson, in the REpublican nominee race.  Can you believe this poll?  Nope.  The number of actual PEOPLE MARGIN--especially among those behind Giuliani--is so SMALL as to make this kind of ranking totally meaningless.  Even for Giuliani, the percentages just mean that he is holding his core support (I question whether he can add much to it unless he gets on a momentum roll; which is possible, although Giuliani is BEHIND in BOTH Iowa and New Hampshire--making it a little hard to gain early momentum).

This has meaning only in one sense.  The main challenge for someone like Huckabee, who was not thought to be in the top tier of candidates to start with, is to be taken SERIOUSLY.  These recent polls give Huckabee his chance.  However, a lot of his appeal has to do with him being a fresh face, somewhat unknown.  Fred Thompson was in that position, and seems not to have taken advantage.  It is up to Huckabee to take advantage ot the sudden attention that is being given to him.

"The telephone poll surveyed 545 likely Democratic primary voters and 503 likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for Democrats and 4.5 percentage points for Republicans."

What does the above MEAN? It means that, like ALL "scientific" polls (AOL polls, and other, similar self-selected polls are a fraud and a joke), the poll "results" are a fallible ESTIMATE projecting results from a SMALL number of people to a large number of people. This is especially MEANINGLESS with this kind of large field as to primary/caucus elections that are LOCAL and still not being focused on by people outside of New Hamphire and Iowa.

Huckabee is (polls again) about TIED with ROMNEY (not Giuliani) in Iowa, with Romney SUBSTANTIALLY (fallible, changeable polls again) ahead in New Hamphisre (while OBAMA is SURGING on the Democratic side--read: may people don't like Hillary). It all means little until votes actually come in.

For the record, I still do not firmly support any of the Republicans, although I would certainly vote for Huckabee, Romney, or Thompson against Hillary Clinton (or any likely Democrat). 

To me, all of the Republicans have some drawbacks (just not as many drawbacks, for the most part, as the Democrats).  I would like to see one step FORWARD as a person ready to seize the moment.  That may yet happen.  In the meantime, these polls mean little (except, as stated, to get money and attention for your campaign, which did not help Howard Dean).

|  Add to del.icio.us |  digg this