The Maverick Conservative

See the previous entry on the POLL rise of Mike Huckabee (which he may or may not be able to translate into real momentum, without a whole lot of money--money being probably the main benefit of the pretty meaningless polls).

Is there really a Republican "frontrunner at the present time?   I don't see that there yet is.

Romney leads in both Iowa (virtual tie with Huckabee, which has lead to a lot of publicity for Huckabee) and New Hampshire POLLS. Giuliani leads in national POLLS (but his percentage has stayed fairly constant, as you would expect since Giuliani's pluses and minuses have not changed, and are pretty well known nationally).

The people behind Giuliani have changed quite materially. First it was McCain, who pretty much self-destructed on immigration. Then it was Fred Thompson, who was a fresh conservative face, but has failed to run an electic campaign since getting into the race. Now it is Huckabee getting attention as a new "conservative" face. Meanwhile, Romney has doggedly kept at his strategy of conentrating on the early states such as Iowa and New Hampshire, where he LEADS.

In this fluid situation, the polls (which mean little, in any event, except for providing a threshold of credibility that, especially, "second tier" candidates need) are absolutely meaningless. NO Republican yet has a grasp on the nomination.

It is up to SOME Republican to seize the moment up to, and primarily AFTER, Iowa and New Hampshire (hint: it will NOT be Ron Paul). There is really not a present Republican "favorite" for the nomination.

Contrary to conventional media "wisdom" (talk about an oxymoron!!!), however, some Republican needs to gain momentum BEFORE the super primary day of February 5. The conventional "wisdom" is that there are so many delegates chosen on that day that the nomination will be decided. That is ONLY true if someone DOMINATES on that day. Otherwise, if SEVERAL candidates SPLIT the delegates, there is a substantial chance of a DEADLOCK heading into the convention. WHY? Because of the very thing that makes some people say the race will inevitably be decided on Feb. 5: There will NOT be enough delegates left after Feb. 5 to easily gain a majority in a situation where SERVERAL candidates have substantial delegates--leading to horse trading and smoke filled rooms.

Can Giuliani translate a national poll PLURALITY into an overwhelming DELEGATE win on Super Tuesday?  I don't think so, UNLESS he can build some momentum in states AFTER Iowa and New Hampshire 9where it is hard to see Giuliani gaining much momentum).  Yet, Giuliani is unlikely to go away, and Iowa and New Hampshire are just not likely to be enough for someone other than Giuliani to build overwhelming momentum unless someone MAKES IT SO with a great, and building campaign.   Thus, the lpossible deadlock after February 5.

I remain undecided, and probably will remain so until at least through New Hampshire.

|  Add to del.icio.us |  digg this