The Maverick Conservative

"The noted Colorado State University hurricane research team predicted on Friday that 13 tropical storms will develop in the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, of which seven would strengthen into hurricanes."

This is another of those areas where this blog has proven CORRECT (as it almost alwayst is).  In foresight, LAST YEAR AND AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS HURRICANE SEASON, I told you that these hurricane forecasts (which the media hypes, especially if they are for an "active" season) are WORTHLESS (except for the scientific purpose of checking our understanding of what causes hurricanes, and how to predict them, by checking how predictions match with reality).

The forecasts for the last two years were WRONG.  So what has happened?  The "prediction" for this year is basically for a repeat of this year.  Do we NEED "forecasters" to "predict" this?  Of course not.  This is merely a prediction for an average year, based mainly on what has happened the last two years.  And the predictions for the last two years were WORTHLESS.

People shoul prepare for hurricanes (in hurricane zones) because they KNOW that a hurrican may occur.  But this HYPE over hurricanes, and "crying wolf", has to stop.

William Gray himself is a "good guy" on some of this.  He has RIDICULED the idea that "global warming" is related to hurricanes (see archive entry).  But, as "news", these predictions are NOT.  They mean nothibng.

As a matter of fact, a former head of the National Hurricane Center correctly ridiculed the way storms were treated this year.  There were at least FOUR named storms this year that would NOT have received names in earlier years.  This HYPE of extreme weather has become unconscionalble.  As this blog told you, those two Mexico/Central America hurricanes this year (supposedly a "record" tow category five hurricanes) were not only overhyped, but probably would NOT have been noted as category five hurricanes in previous years.  That is because, in previous years, hurricanes not imminently endagnering the U.S., did not receive this kind of attention--the very same poin made about "naming" these storms that would previously lnever have received names.

It is like we WANT to distort this information.  This is not William Gray's fault.  He is trying to predict, as a scientific exercise.  However, the idea that those predictions MEAN anything is FALSE.  And the idea that we should HYPE storms is not only false; it is EVIL.

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