The Maverick Conservative

You know the "convetional wisdom".  Even Karl Rove is spouting the same nonsense.

The idea is that we will KNOW the party nominees for President by February 5.   That is simply not true (that is, it may end up being true, but it is not inevitable because of the "front-loakded" primaries choosing most of the delegates by February 5). 

What is true is that we will come close to knowing the final status of the nomination races on February 5 (that is, the way the candidates will go into the convention months later).

However, what if the delegates chosen on February 5 are SPLIT EVENLY among three or more candidates.   This is not a fantasy,  It could happen.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is imploding, but it is difficult to believe that she will go away by February 5--considering her substantial national support.  If EDWARDS wins in Iowa, it is POSSIBLE that Edwards, Obama and Clinton will split the vote evenly on February 5.  If so, are there then enough delegates left to be choen for ANYONE to wrap up the nomination before the convention?  It certainly would be hard.  Now this scenario may not be likely, since it requires Edwards to be a MAJOR factor, and for neither of the other two to totally fade away.  Still,, the pundits do not even MENTION this possibility, and it is real.

Now a deadlock is theoretically even more possible, even likely, on the Republican side--EXCEPT for the extreme movement in sentiment which would indicate that President-elect Romney may yet put the race away early (this blog having "called" the race for President-elect Romney).

Mike Huckabee has risen from nowhere (although identified as a dark horse some time ago in this blog).  The problem is that this has been at the expense of Fred Thompson (who had a similar boom).   President-elect Romney has been there all along (especially in the early primary states he has concentrated on). 

Thus, the Republican "deadlock" situation requires that AT LEAST three of the Republican candidates STAY strong.  Giuliani (who this blog has said fromt he beginning would not win the nomination--even predicting that the race would come down to Romney -Thompson, which is a prediction which may turn out to be substantially correct in terms of Huckabee inheriting the Thompson mantle almost by default).   Giuliani is ALREADY fading.  You would think he could stay a major factor through February 5, as the only "moderate" hope in the Republican field.  In a situation this fluid, however, he may not be able to avoid the "loser" tag (assuming Giuliani loses the primaries before February 5).  

Therefore, the Republican "deadlock" scenario requires that either Huckabee, Romney, and Giuliani ALL stay in pretty even contention through February 5, OR that either Thompson or McCain make a substantial comeback (a four or five way race on February 5, with a split vote among all of the major candidates, would virtually guarantee a deadlock all of the way to the convention.  Given the rapidity with which Republican candidates are DISAPPEARING, after initial bumps, argues against this result.  It is still POSSIBLE.

Now the "conventional wisdom" MAY turn out to be correct.  We may know the nomines on February 5/6.   Then you will hear all of the "pundits" talk about how that confirmed what they told us.  Don't believe it.  Super primary day merely accelerates the time when we KNOW the status of the race--probably all the way to the convention.  It does NOT guarantee that we will not have a DEADLOCK.  In fact, it makes a deadlock at the convention a little MORE likely, because there is NOT TIME for candidates to gather momentum state by state.  So long as at least three candidates SPLLIT the vote on February  5 fairly evenly, a convention first ballot deadline becomes PROBABLE (because of not enough delegates left to be chosen to put anyone over the top).

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