The Maverick Conservative

"The Republican presidential race is so unsettled that some party officials are openly talking of a scenario that seemed almost unthinkable until now: the first contested GOP convention in 60 years."

Yes, the mainstream media, and political "experts", are FINALLY catching up with this blog (present score:  The Maverick Conservative 1,000,109  Evil Media 0).  The above quote is the breathless lead paragraph from today's AOL featured story.  You heard it here FIRST.

Another story that shows just how DUMB present day "journalists" are--where the preent poll and "herd" coverage is all they know about covering elections.

SIX MONTHS ago I explained this to readers of "The Maverick Conservative", when the mainstream media was still talking as if the "front loaded" Super Tuesday primaires guaranteed that we would know the Presidential nominees on February 5.

This is obviously NOT true. It is true ONLY if ONE candidate dominates on Super Tuesday. Even for the Democrats, an EVEN split on Super Tuesday, or close to it, will not decide the nomination (which I expect Hillary Clinton to get).

If, however, there are three or more strong candidates left on Super Tuesday, as appears likely--at this time--for the Republicans, Super Tuesday actually makes a DEADLOCKED convention MORE LIKELY. That is because there are not that many delegates left after Super Tuesday, and no real reason for any reasonably strong candidate to drop out before Super Tuesday (not really enough TIME to weed many out after Iowa and New Hampshire).  And why drop out AFTER if there is no clear winner?

This is merely another example of why you should pay no attention to the mainstream media.  They are all hype--all heat and no light.  Even this story, with its brathless style of REVELATION (when, as I stated in my previous post, I raised this POSSIBILITY in this blog, SIX MONTHS AGO), is overdone.  It is inevitable that a deadlock will occur SOMETIME, the more front loaded  the process gets. 

A simple thought experiement (modern "journalists" don't think) tells you this. 

Say there was ONE NATIONAL PRIMARY, in all states on the same day (the ultimate in "front loading").  So long as there are at least three candidates with reasonable support, would a "deadlocked" convention not be almost inevitable?  Of course it would.  NO candidate, in the early state primaries and caucuses, has come CLOSE to getting 50% of the vote.  So long as there are not too many "winner take all" states that go to a single candidate, a national primary would guarantee at least one deadlocked convention almost every year.   Candidates would not have TIME to "drop out"--to reduce the race to a two person race--before the race (before the convention) is OVER.  And they have little incentive to drop out after the "super" primary, if there is no clear winner.

Q.E.D.  (so why is the media "shocked" at this?).

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